Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

18Z GEFS individual member snow totals:

Through noon Tuesday:

https://i.imgur.com/2Ml00Ii.png

Thanks for the GEFS Ensembles!

[TheAustinMan]

Looking at the surface obs this evening, it appears once again that the mesoscales are taking the lead on the coarser globals when it comes to showing the extent of the shallow cold layer. At 00z-01z, freezing temperatures are already knocking on the Hill Country's door while earlier guidance still had it backed way up north. I penciled in the current freezing line relative to the 18z GFS 6-hour output. By comparison, the mesoscale guidance like the HRRR seem to have gotten this isotherm position a lot more accurately... I mean, it's 25 in Lubbock and 18 in Amarillo right now!

350KB. Source: Tropical Tidbits

[orangeblood]

Just posting these images to archive this under “forecasts we’ll probably never see again in our lifetimes”. Truly astounding to those that follow winter weather below the 40N parallel. Even the mid week system is really starting to gain some traction!!

[dhweather]

I wonder if there's any THUNDERSLEET in this?

[jasons2k]

Looking at the surface obs this evening, it appears once again that the mesoscales are taking the lead on the coarser globals when it comes to showing the extent of the shallow cold layer. At 00z-01z, freezing temperatures are already knocking on the Hill Country's door while earlier guidance still had it backed way up north. I penciled in the current freezing line relative to the 18z GFS 6-hour output. By comparison, the mesoscale guidance like the HRRR seem to have gotten this isotherm position a lot more accurately... I mean, it's 25 in Lubbock and 18 in Amarillo right now!

350KB. Source: Tropical Tidbits

That forecast is for tomorrow...

[benrayrog]

Thunder, lightning and heavy rain in Malakoff at 7 p.m.

[Cerlin]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

Wxman57 is one we have to take very seriously. He is not a cold monger, and is a very well respected person here on the forums. His advice during the tropical season is golden you take with heavy weight. This cold snap is no joke. There are some questions further south (but even here it's very significant) but the Northern half of the state is in for a deep freeze that has already begun.

It has been a long time since we have seen a cold snap like this. Decades ago and negligence, belief it can't happen has not prepared the booming population for such an event in what is now large sprawling urban centers.

That’s how I knew this was for real. When he’s in, I’m in. I’m so used to him being the antithesis that him agreeing (and fleeing the country at the hands of NASA) instantly makes me inclined to believe we could be at the start of something historic. I understand not to be completely over the top in case it busts (as in, we don’t need to post 15 inch snow maps on live TV) but I just want the mets to actually discuss the possibilities and it seems like over the past few hours since my comment, they’ve started to.

[cstrunk]

Looking at the surface obs this evening, it appears once again that the mesoscales are taking the lead on the coarser globals when it comes to showing the extent of the shallow cold layer. At 00z-01z, freezing temperatures are already knocking on the Hill Country's door while earlier guidance still had it backed way up north. I penciled in the current freezing line relative to the 18z GFS 6-hour output. By comparison, the mesoscale guidance like the HRRR seem to have gotten this isotherm position a lot more accurately... I mean, it's 25 in Lubbock and 18 in Amarillo right now!

350KB. Source: Tropical Tidbits
https://i.imgur.com/JkL6KCT.png

That forecast is for tomorrow...

00z Thursday is Wednesday night.

[cstrunk]

Thunder, lightning and heavy rain in Malakoff at 7 p.m.

Same in Longview. Quite a bit of lightning, actually.

I stepped outside a little bit ago and it sure feels colder than 40F, like the NWS observation from 6 pm.

[gpsnowman]

Made a trip to 7-11 and some raindrops were falling. Work and school mornings could be a little treacherous. Currently 32 in Irving.

[WacoWx]

Weather channel app says 3”-5”of snow Sunday night and 1-3 on Monday for Dallas!

[Iceresistance]

2.10.2021 WinterWX confidence level for Several Winter Storms in the next several Days (My own Forecast)

Storm #1 (Friday Night into Saturday)
Confidence level: 95%

Impact Level:

• NW Oklahoma: Enhanced
• Central Oklahoma, & the Panhandles of Texas & Oklahoma: Elevated
• Northern Texas & Southern Oklahoma: Low

Snowfall totals:

• NW Oklahoma: 2-3 inches
• Central Oklahoma & the Panhandles of Texas & Oklahoma: 1-2 inches
• Northern texas & Southern Oklahoma: Up to 1 inch

Storm #2
(Sunday night into Tuesday Morning)
Confidence Level: 100%

Impact Level:

• Most of Oklahoma & Northern Half Texas: Extreme
• Panhandle & far SW Texas & NW Oklahoma: Very High
• Panhandle Oklahoma & SE Texas (Ice & Sleet): High
• NE Oklahoma: Enhanced

Ice Totals:

• Southern & SE Texas: Up to .25 inch in pockets

Snowfall Totals:

• Most of Oklahoma & Northern Half of Texas: 7-10 inches
• Panhandle Texas & NW Oklahoma: 6-8 inches
• Panhandle Oklahoma: 5-7 inches (Locally 8)
• NE Oklahoma: 3-5 inches

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Mean Snowfall (fendie already got the GIF for that, a very much thank you for that, I really needed it! )

9-11 inches of snow in Central Oklahoma
8-10 inches in DFW
2-5 inches in Austin

[Ntxw]

18z GEFS Mean Snowfall (fendie already got the GIF for that, a very much thank you for that, I really needed it! )

9-11 Inches of snow in Central Oklahoma
8-10 Inches in DFW
2-5 inches in Austin

Blowing and drifting snow in Arctic conditions. Can you really measure that? Who's to say one of us won't stick a ruler into a pile for 24" .

FW has forwarned clearing of the roads during climax event likely won't be of much help.

Back in time clip not us here but perhaps one of our mets will do it.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/kpxiCxO5k0g[/youtube]

[BigD938]

It’s starting to rain out here forney(25 miles east of Dallas)
31 according to the WAPP. Just left the store, hardly anyone here which is surprising since the news is now talking about what’s coming

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Mean Snowfall (fendie already got the GIF for that, a very much thank you for that, I really needed it! )

9-11 Inches of snow in Central Oklahoma
8-10 Inches in DFW
2-5 inches in Austin

Blowing and drifting snow in Arctic conditions. Can you really measure that? Who's to say one of us won't stick a ruler into a pile for 24" .

FW has forwarned clearing of the roads during climax event likely won't be of much help.

Heard that on News 9 that East-West roads are likely going to be shut down across Oklahoma because of up to 4 Feet Snowdrifts

[rwfromkansas]

Temp IMBY rapidly dropping like last night to 30.

[Haris]

HRRR now showing a half inch of ice for Austin TX...

In line with RAP,RGEM,CMC. This is getting worrisome. It is 34F now too.

[TropicalTundra]

[bohai]

36.2F @ 745PM In Comfort, TX about 50 mile NW of San Antonio in the Hill Country. We are at an elevation of 1970'. Dropped from 48 at 3PM/ Very foggy and winds 5-10 from NW.