Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DonWrk]

WOW. NWS updated forecast really came with it this time!

Tonight...Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then showers...thunderstorms and sleet after midnight. Breezy. Sleet accumulation up to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one tenth of an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming north 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Windy. Much colder. Precipitation may be heavy at times in the morning. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 1 to 6 inches. Ice accumulation of one tenth of an inch. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wind chill readings as low as 1 below to 4 above zero.

[wxman57]

:?: Question....I am in the Beaumont area and local mets are forecasting our lowest low to be about 24-25 later this week. Is there still a possibility that this system is colder than we are assuming? Should us in SETX prepare for the worse also?JC, Thanks!

It's POSSIBLE, but consider that it now looks like the sky will be mostly cloudy this week. There won't be any good nights of radiative cooling so we'll have to rely mostly on advective cooling. That would point to the model projections being a bit too cold for lows and too warm for highs.

[newtotex]

I thought Wichita Falls was suppos to get "slammed" why are they only under an advisory? Does this have to do with the moisture moving?

[Ntxw]

You don't log in for awhile and boom, a billion posts . GFS has gone loco!! Looks like westplexers are going to get hit hard.

[txagwxman]

[txagwxman]

I thought Wichita Falls was suppos to get "slammed" why are they only under an advisory? Does this have to do with the moisture moving?

I don't know why...FTW to SPS/Sherman are in for a rude wake up call tomorrow.

[Longhornmaniac8]

What is the general confidence of this event later in the week? Not noticing forecasts picking up much on it yet.

[downsouthman1]

What is the general confidence of this event later in the week? Not noticing forecasts picking up much on it yet.

Somewhat low confidence. Forecasts aren't picking up on it because there's currently much more emphasis needing for tonight-tomorrow. Starting Wed, you'll probably see more about the late week system in the forecasts.

[DentonGal]

Updated forecast discussion out of Fort Worth. On my iPhone, so too much hassel to copy and paste....FYI.

[Mattie]

000
WWUS44 KFWD 311709
WSWFWD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS UPGRADED TO WINTER
STORM WARNING. WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH AREA. WILL DECIDE ON FURTHER UPGRADES TO
WATCH AND ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-129-010115-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110201T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0002.110201T0600Z-110201T2100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
1109 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO...TO MINERAL
WELLS...TO DECATUR...TO GAINESVILLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S BETWEEN 3
AND 6 AM. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND HEAVY SNOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY FALLING TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. TOTAL
SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS YOUNG...JACK...AND MONTAGUE
COUNTIES.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE VERY
HAZARDOUS...AND POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. NOW IS THE TIME TO CHANGE
TRAVEL PLANS IF POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE
YOU BECOME STRANDED.


$$

TXZ093-094-103>105-117>120-130>133-141-010115-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110201T2100Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...DENTON...
LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...
DE LEON
1109 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SNOW AND SLEET REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8
AM...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW OF
1/2 INCH TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FREEZE
ON ALL ROAD SURFACES BY MIDDAY...MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

$$


92

[DonWrk]

NWS website is soo slow! Their servers must be getting overloaded!

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS ensembles really picking up on the potential winter storm for later this week. Coming more in line with the Canadian

Edit: then another storm around Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Crazy couple of weeks coming up!!

[BigB0882]

Both the NAM and the GFS for my area show absolutely cruel results. We are, as of now, going to be sitting at about 33/34 degrees with rain! There must be a pocket of warm air above the surface. I can't imagine seeing all our neighbors in TX having a snow day while we get a 33 degree rain! I am going to really cross my fingers that temps trend down so we can have some snow. The GFS has about .35 inches of QPF so if that came in as snow we would have 1.5 - 3 inches of fun white stuff. Please, Mother Nature, be kind!!

[CaptinCrunch]

That Winter Storm warning should be extened east ward to include all of DFW area by the evening update.

[Ntxw]

That Winter Storm warning should be extened east ward to include all of DFW area by the evening update.

I don't know about warning but advisory would be warranted by the EURO. At least .10 qpf of all snow (more before but I don't know how much of that is rain/snow/ice). SPS 6+...

[DentonGal]

That Winter Storm warning should be extened east ward to include all of DFW area by the evening update.

Promise? Jk, jk.... But do you really think so?

[gboudx]

Took a ride to the Lowe's in Murphy to pickup a couple outdoor faucet insulators. There was about 5 other people there buying the same thing and rubber insulation for exposed pipes. Plus, I saw people on the checkout buying that stuff as well. Good to see people are taking this seriously.

[Brandon8181]

I thought Wichita Falls was suppos to get "slammed" why are they only under an advisory? Does this have to do with the moisture moving?

I don't know why...FTW to SPS/Sherman are in for a rude wake up call tomorrow.

I really think that this is really going to catch a lot of people off guard.

I'm very concerned about this potential VERY dangerous winter weather situation. This has gone from "alittle bit of fun snow" to a potential Life Threatening event IMO.

Ice / power outages / Cold weather potentially in the single digits .. no heat?

Please, everyone across north Texas prepare now for the worst. (even if it doesn't happen it doesn't hurt to prepared)

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[txtiff]

Where would be the best place to go to look at the satellite image of the storm as it moves in?? Also I am just east of the DFW area. About 30 miles to the east to be exact. We have no watches or warnings. Is that expected to change?

[CaptinCrunch]

That Winter Storm warning should be extened east ward to include all of DFW area by the evening update.

I don't know about warning but advisory would be warranted by the EURO. At least .10 qpf of all snow (more before but I don't know how much of that is rain/snow/ice). SPS 6+...

All of this will move off to the east and MINERAL WELLS is only 30 min from DT FTW.