Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

News 9 said that there is going to be ThunderSleet & Thundersnow from this storm in Oklahoma & maybe Northern Texas

[funster]

Schools wise to cancel since kids probably won't be able to get there anyway. Even two or three hours of freezing rain could easily get us above the dreaded .25 inch mark unfortunately. This precip will be heavier than most north texas winter storms.

[EnnisTx]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

Yea, the societal impact occurred with the issuing of the Watch. The Milk and Bread is already gone but if know where to look you can still get whiskey and beer

Perfect timing on this one. I now have the travel trailer stocked with the essentials, BEER AND WHISKEY, should have seen the looks I got loading booze into the trailer in the parking lot.

[lrak]

WOW from CCTX NWS

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

The long term opens up with a rather complex winter weather
forecast. An upper level trough will be moving across the Plains as
a cold front is sent our way. Timing looks to remain on track with
the boundary pushing offshore before sunrise Thursday with a few
isolated showers and storms across the waters through the morning
hours. Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of the cold
front with Wind Advisory conditions likely being met along the
islands through the day Thursday. The forecast then becomes a little
tricky as we head into Thursday night. A strip of moisture looks to
be tugged over Mexico and across the region through the day Thursday
which may leave enough residual moisture behind the front to lead to
a brief window for potential wintry precip. Confidence is not high
in this solution at this time as recent probabilistic, ensemble, and
deterministic guidance shy away from this outcome. The detail in
that part over the forecast will be worked out over the next
forecast cycle or two. For now, left any mention of winter precip
out of the weather grids.

[gpsnowman]

Schools wise to cancel since kids probably won't be able to get there anyway. Even two or three hours of freezing rain could easily get us above the dreaded .25 inch mark unfortunately. This precip will be heavier than most north texas winter storms.

I agree. And it looks like it could be heavy at times with FOUR types of precip. Very impressive system headed our way and a good portion of the US as well.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Here's a 21Z surface analysis. The front is really not moving much across Oklahoma or Missouri, and it's not moving too quickly through the southern Texas Panhandle. Note the "Marfa front" (black dashed line). Still not much of a temperature drop immediately behind the front. Freezing line is up in southern Nebraska. Only an 11 degree difference between Amarillo and North Platte, Nebraska. Over the next 24 hours, the cold air will deepen behind the front (unfortunately, my wall may leak a little) over the next 24 hours. By the time it's moving across central Texas, the temperature difference across the front will be quite significant.

P.S. As I look at the map, I should have drawn the stationary front right across Ponca City in northern OK rather than to its south. Not redrawing it.

P.P.S. I couldn't stand it. I adjusted the stationary front north to over Ponca City.

http://wxman57.com/images/21ZSFC.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/21ZSFC.JPG

Looking at the surface maps just now, seems the front just got a little nudge. Amarillo down to 40 and upper 30s are into Texas now, just to the north.

[Iceresistance]

Schools wise to cancel since kids probably won't be able to get there anyway. Even two or three hours of freezing rain could easily get us above the dreaded .25 inch mark unfortunately. This precip will be heavier than most north texas winter storms.

I agree. And it looks like it could be heavy at times with FOUR types of precip. Very impressive system headed our way and a good portion of the US as well.

Yeah, David Payne said it's over 2K miles long.

[cstrunk]

I doubt upgrades come before 0z runs. SHV may even wait until tomorrow morning.

I've noticed the night shift forecaster at SHV has seemed to be a bit more optimistic regarding winter weather impacts vs. day shift.

[Ntxw]

Here it comes, the polar jet and subtropical jet along the west and southwest.

[Brent]

Schools wise to cancel since kids probably won't be able to get there anyway. Even two or three hours of freezing rain could easily get us above the dreaded .25 inch mark unfortunately. This precip will be heavier than most north texas winter storms.

I agree. And it looks like it could be heavy at times with FOUR types of precip. Very impressive system headed our way and a good portion of the US as well.

Yeah the news here just now flat out said heavy snow tomorrow night

Didn't hear the thundersnow word but it wouldn't shock me

[Ralph's Weather]

I doubt upgrades come before 0z runs. SHV may even wait until tomorrow morning.

I've noticed the night shift forecaster at SHV has seemed to be a bit more optimistic regarding winter weather impacts vs. day shift.

That is true

[txtwister78]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

In my opinion they've done a good job of ramping this up without going full apocalypse which this event is not I believe (even in DFW). I honestly think a lot of the "not as bad as 2021" commentary is coming from social media responses. So, messaging wise I think they're doing enough. Again, just my .02. That's not saying folks shouldn't be prepared for a significant event Thursday in DFW but creating "panic" and flooding stores probably not helpful either especially when you have strain from ongoing distribution issues as it is (but that's another subject for a different forum).

Agree though about semantics. Probably waiting to decide between ice storm warning or winter storm warning.

[Iceresistance]

Schools wise to cancel since kids probably won't be able to get there anyway. Even two or three hours of freezing rain could easily get us above the dreaded .25 inch mark unfortunately. This precip will be heavier than most north texas winter storms.

I agree. And it looks like it could be heavy at times with FOUR types of precip. Very impressive system headed our way and a good portion of the US as well.

Yeah the news here just now flat out said heavy snow tomorrow night

Didn't hear the thundersnow word but it wouldn't shock me

It appears more likely in Southern & Central Oklahoma

[EnnisTx]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

In my opinion they've done a good job of ramping this up without going full apocalypse which this event is not I believe (even in DFW). I honestly think a lot of the "not as bad as 2021" commentary is coming from social media responses. So, messaging wise I think they're doing enough. Again, just my .02. That's not saying folks shouldn't be prepared for a significant event Thursday in DFW but creating "panic" and flooding stores probably not helpful either especially when you have strain from ongoing distribution issues as it is (but that's another subject for a different forum).

Up here all they have to do is mention the chance of winter weather and people bombard the grocery stores, it's just crazy.

[orangeblood]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

Yep, really strange how the media is handling this one….arguably easier Warning decision than last years with potentially bigger impact due to impassable roads/emergency vehicles becoming unable to assist in any capacity

[Ntxw]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

In my opinion they've done a good job of ramping this up without going full apocalypse which this event is not I believe (even in DFW). I honestly think a lot of the "not as bad as 2021" commentary is coming from social media responses. So, messaging wise I think they're doing enough. Again, just my .02. That's not saying folks shouldn't be prepared for a significant event Thursday in DFW but creating "panic" and flooding stores probably not helpful either especially when you have strain from ongoing distribution issues as it is (but that's another subject for a different forum).

Agree though about semantics. Probably waiting to decide between ice storm warning or winter storm warning.

I agree with most of your points. I just can't tell you how many times I've seen and heard this, and NWS FW had the comparison too albeit they did note the effects. A lot of the general public is very simple minded. You say not as bad as 2021 and they think back when they could drive around because many were successful in the snow after their power went out. The roads may become nearly impassible in this situation where sleet is plentiful. This may not compare to 2021 but likely as bad as any event since 2000, potentially, up here. This is the kind of storm you see trucks and cars stuck and backed up for miles in the sleet and ice.

[ElectricStorm]

Just got informed that we're going virtual for the next 2 days. Whatever happened to snow days

Hopefully everyone stays safe out there. This is going to be nasty for everyone involved...

[CaptinCrunch]

Expect the NWS FTW to issue Winter Storm Warning at the 9pm update.

Front is on top of Wichita Falls currently expected into the DFW area by 6am-8am in the morning. Still think the transition will come earlier than forecast like around 6pm tomorrow.

[bevolon]

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

In my opinion they've done a good job of ramping this up without going full apocalypse which this event is not I believe (even in DFW). I honestly think a lot of the "not as bad as 2021" commentary is coming from social media responses. So, messaging wise I think they're doing enough. Again, just my .02. That's not saying folks shouldn't be prepared for a significant event Thursday in DFW but creating "panic" and flooding stores probably not helpful either especially when you have strain from ongoing distribution issues as it is (but that's another subject for a different forum).

Up here all they have to do is mention the chance of winter weather and people bombard the grocery stores, it's just crazy.

When I worked at the grocery store when I was younger we had a manager that swore the owners of the grocery stores around the area got together and bribed the weathermen to just say the word snow during the winter to improve the profits!

[EnnisTx]

Just got informed that we're going virtual for the next 2 days. Whatever happened to snow days

Hopefully everyone stays safe out there. This is going to be nasty for everyone involved...

You know that internet and such can be really unreliable in severe weather conditions.