Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Raining pretty hard this morning here in North Bend.

So far since it began we are at 1.05 inches.

This pattern change began one month ago today. Since that time there has been over 6 inches of rain at Sea-Tac. Here at our house we have received 13.55 inches of rain in the last month. And if you remember... we even had 2 inches of snow on March 16th.

R-Dub... sorry to hear about the traffic. I-5 and I-405 can be pretty bad in the rain on Friday afternoon. That is another reason we love living in NB. The traffic on I-90 is almost never congested... even in the rain!! I can get from Bellevue to home in about 25 minutes without worrying about congestion.

[W13]

Wow, we are having a pretty good rain cell over us. Currently we have 46 F and a rainfall rate of 0.36"/hour and holding steady. That cell is pretty big.

[andycottle]

Raining pretty good here too! In fact, acording to my Oregon Scientific Weather Station....it`s raining .32" an hour right now. Since the rain began last night and up through right now...I am .55" of rain.
My current temp is 49 with baro 29.50 and steady.

[W13]

We are catching up to you Andy in terms of total rainfall for the day. We are currently at 0.54" since midnight and still raining pretty good.

[AnthonyC]

Well dude, I'm ready for another pattern change. I know we need the lowland rain and mountain snow, but I'm tired of this cool/wet weather. It's the end of April...not the middle of February.

Fortunately, next week looks like a nice pattern change will emerge. Afternoon highs in the 60s with mostly sunny conditions.

Pretty impressive rainfall this morning. We've probably had over 0.5 inch of rain this morning...still raining at a moderate clip. Unfortunately, it's ALL rain in the mountains. That's the problem at this time of year...we finally get a decent cold front but it's the END OF APRIL. It's too late in the season to build the snowpack. Once the cold front passes through, the rain should briefly change to snow at Stevens...could pick up a few inches...but the NWS did not issue a snow advisory so anything will be below 4-6 inches. Snoqualmie will stay rain for a majority of this event.

A decent surface low is moving into the Queen Charlottes...yet the wind is nothing substantial across any of the water ways. Once the cold front passes, winds will briefly pick up to about 20 mph throughout the central Puget Sound. I'm surprised the coast hasn't seen a gust over 35 mph. The surface low is pretty intense, but I guess the distance is the key factor.

BRING BACK THE SUN/WARM WEATHER!

Anthony

PS-I lost 10 bucks at poker last night...but I gained 10 bucks. So I'm even!! lol.

[TT-SEA]

The Palmer Drought Index had Western Washington in the normal range last week after being in a moderate drought in March. We might even be slightly wet now.

Eastern Washington is still in a drought so the state still needs to be prepared for wildfires and low rivers.

[snow_wizzard]

Absolutely no doubt that this front has delivered the goods! 0.93 since the rain began yesterday, and 0.53 for the day. That puts the monthly total at Covington up to a generous 3.09! It would appear that this one will put Seattle above noraml for the entire month of April, and above normal for the combined March and April total. Great news for the drought. At this point I would say my prediction that this drought will be little more than a small inconvenience will come to pass! If the summer is not overly hot and dry, the fire danger should be nothing out of the ordinary, but that remains to be seen.

It looks like our temps go above normal on Wednesday and stay there for about 5 days and then go normal or below again as a trough digs in from the NW to finish out the month. The trough the GFS has been showing for day 6 or so is still in question and could limit our above normal days to just a few. We will see.

TT...I like that group of years you came up with! The temperature profile this month, for the US, looks very similar to those years (I ran the years through the nifty web site that Don provided). Did you notice that the following winters were colder than normal for the Jan - Mar period? I will post more thoughts on that group of years later on.

[snow_wizzard]

Holy Mackerel TT!!! You have been doing some great work! I have just read some more of your posts. It will take me a while to address all of them. The group of years I refered to in the last post was 1910, 1912, 1921, 1925, 1930, 1955, 1988, 1991, 1999.

I am happy that you have found 1953 to be similar! That one has come up as an anolog year many times in the past two months. That winter featured a cold and snowy January...In fact Palmer acheived a maximum depth of 38 inches. 1978 is another year that I consider to be a really good one. I still remember how cold that winter was. We had snow and two cold spells in Nov, an Arctic outbreak in Dec, and a long lasting cold spell in Janaury (in fact it was colder than 1980 in many locations). I actually remember walking on Green Lake that winter.

I am not sure about us having a weak El Nino next winter. The deep water has become colder than normal in the western Equatorial Pacific after being warm for the past couple of years. That remains to be seen.

[TT-SEA]

1941 and 1993.

Overall... those are the best matches. No question.

It is much more important to look at the whole U.S. and the global indexes rather than the fact that Sea-Tac was 5 degrees below on one day or even for one month.

One location cannot represent a global pattern and therefore cannot predict the weather at that location in the future.

I would say very little lowland snow for the coming winter... and probably drier and warmer than normal.

But the summer should be fun with some good rain and most likely thunderstorms (like you said before about 1993).

[TT-SEA]

Based on the latest models... I am seeing ABOVE normal temperatures the rest of the month.

The GFS shows a persistent ridge and splitting trough pattern developing again. Even at its face value it would mean above normal but remember it over-predicts the strength of troughs in this pattern so I expect even warmer and drier.

As it is... the 12Z run of the GFS shows almost NO precipitation for the rest of April (after Monday).

Most days in the 60's... a few days in the low 70's... and some places will touch 80 degrees before the month is done.

This all starts on Wednesday (4/20).

Time to enjoy sun and warmth!!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I have to respectfully disagree about 1941. That year was astonishingly warm compared to this one. Seattle averged 5.6 degrees above naoml in April. Right now, htis one is running about 3 degrees below normal. February averaged a WHOPPING 7.1 degrees above normal and this one was 1 degree below normal. It may have been comparable in some respects but some details were obviously much different.

I am not seeing the kind of warmth you are talking about later in the month. The flow is onshore so much of the time. The GFS has been clear that the month will end quite cool. One reason I am so obsessed with this month averaging below normal is because it will break the nearly unbroken string of above normal months we have been seeing in the last couple of years. The patterns are finally becoming more favorable for below normal temps. This will actually give us two below normal months
in a three month period. That is significant because we get stuck in ruts, that are hard to break out of. The past is full of examples where a two year period can have 80% of the months above normal, or 80% below normal. This COULD be a sign we have turned the corner.

EDIT: I do agree we will have some highs in the 60s, and maybe one or 2 near 70. Anything above that is highly unlikely.

[TT-SEA]

Again... you are focusing WAY too much on Seattle and not the whole pattern.

I conceded before that April of 1941 averaged above normal in the PNW... but other than this little corner of the country the match is really good. Actually... this April may get close to normal in Seattle when all is said and done. Close.

It goes beyond the pattern across North America in April of 1941. There are MANY similarities across the country and the world for that entire spring.

There is no doubt that 1941 and 1993 are very good analog years.

Look beyond Seattle to determine what will happen in Seattle nine months from now!!!

[W13]

Currently 41 F with 0.79" in the rain gauge for the day.

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...You so underestimate the past history for snow in Seattle. We have had many winters with large snowfalls that have stayed on the ground for long periods of time. In January 1880 we had one of the largest lowland snowstorms ever recorded in the the US. The depth hit 4.5 feet in the city and 6 feet in the outlying areas. There are so many other examples that it would take a long time for me to post them!

By the way...if you compare Seattle's monthly total in Jan 1950 to almost any other US city, you will find there are VERY few cities that beat it. In fact...Denver has only had one month that was snowier (less than one inch more). I wish that you and others could see the kind of snows, that even I have witnessed. You would have much more respect for our winters. I am actually working on a book about all of this stuff. I must admit that even my jaw hits the floor when I read it back. It used to be so unimaginably different.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I think it would be a lot of fun for both of us to come up with our top 10 analog years and compare them. Like you, I think one or two is not enough to get a really good picture. I think the different way we go about finding them, could give us a good mix! My number one pick is 1928. Locally, the fit is so good. Very dry Feb, warm March, below normal April. I think we need to look at 1953 also. We have both brought that one up. That winter was quite good. Besides the cold and snowy Jan, March was quite chilly.

[TT-SEA]

It was snowy at times. There were MANY winters even back in the 1800's with very little snow in Seattle. We just have a unique climate where the extreme is possible.

You are lumping together events that happened 20 or 30 years apart and labeling the entire century as amazingly snowy.

The winter of 1915-16 shocked people because they were so used to a mild, gentle climate. Why?? Because overall... even back then... the climate of Seattle was mild and gentle.

[TT-SEA]

1928 is completely thrown out dude.

Nothing similar about the global pattern. Nothing.

First... it was a wet spring in Seattle and a very dry spring in California. You have to start with a precipitation pattern similar to this winter. That should be your FIRST criteria.

The temperature patterns are ALL wrong...

April 1928...




Notice the frigid cold in the Midwest. They are having an incredibly warm April in 2005. The entire temperature pattern across the country is COMPLETELY wrong.

I saw many years come closer than 1928 that I threw out as well. In fact 1928 may be the total opposite of this year for the overall pattern. It just so happens that pattern caused Seattle to be warm in March and cold in April.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...That is true. However, it was much, much snowier prior to 1975. In the period from 1890 to 1913 Seattle had 11 winters with 15 inches of snow or more, and only 6 failed to get at least 10 inches. Figure about 50% more in the eastern suburbs, and you get the picture!

Can you imagine how much Palmer must have gotten?

By the way...1915-16 was extraordinary! Snow was one the ground for 6 straight weeks and people were able to drive horse drawn buggies onto Green Lake. There is no way you can say it did not used to be FAR different.

[snow_wizzard]

It all depends how you look at it. Like I said, I think a variety of ideas is good. I think a mixture of your methods and mine could prove to be a good thing. That having been said, I love the new web site that you are using and will add it to my mix. I have made great predictions based on local trends before. I hope you can respect my methods as I will respect yours.

To me, it is significant that 1928 is the only year that had the bone dry Feb, warm March, cool April mix.

[snow_wizzard]

Holy Cow! The temp is Covington is down to 42 degrees! I don't care if it means anything or not. That is cold for this time of year!