Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Hey gang ... just as an fyi, we're going to try and discuss the general threat of next week's Arctic Outbreak to the "Siberian Express" thread below:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=110199

Employing this switch, we we can have a discussion with members from all our states. When the event gets closer and we start looking at local impacts and local perspectives, then we can start to re-populate the Texas winter thread/Southern Plains thread and others.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming ...

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro out to 216 hours...The cold air is just ridiculous

1065-1070 High sliding down from Canada

[Tireman4]

ECMWF has a 1070 mb high in Western Canada with a full plunge into Texas...12F Dallas next Wed.

Is this still too far out for you to bite on Txagwxman?

[txagwxman]

Believe me I am biting like a rabid bat.

[Tireman4]

Believe me I am biting like a rabid bat.

Uhh oh...now we just have to get Wxman57 to bite on it. LOL

[txagwxman]

You can't stop that pressure reading! 1070 on the ECMWF--- I have never seen that from that model!

[Snowman67]

Believe me I am biting like a rabid bat.

Uhh oh...now we just have to get Wxman57 to bite on it. LOL

If txagwxman is on board, so am I!

[Snowman67]

You can't stop that pressure reading! 1070 on the ECMWF--- I have never seen that from that model!

You not on IM today?

[Texas2Florida]

A couple of days ago I know the models were hinting at a bunch of moisture/precip at 190 hours out..which would be this coming sat/sun. What happened with that? I'm still learning how to read all this. The local TWC feed shows Sun low of 30 with "showers". Most of the chatter I see is about the absurdly cold temps...how about a little "shower" to go along with it?

[txagwxman]

A couple of days ago I know the models were hinting at a bunch of moisture/precip at 190 hours out..which would be this coming sat/sun. What happened with that? I'm still learning how to read all this. The local TWC feed shows Sun low of 30 with "showers". Most of the chatter I see is about the absurdly cold temps...how about a little "shower" to go along with it?

Give this some time to evolve...this is one of the colder air masses and strongest high pressure systems I have seen from these models in a long time.

Highest sea-level pressure ever recorded in the USA, 1064 mb in Montana in the great Arctic outbreak of December 1983.

ECMWF is 1070 mb in Western Canada next week!

[HockeyTx82]

ECMWF has a 1070 mb high in Western Canada with a full plunge into Texas...12F Dallas next Wed.

Is that a high or a low temp? Either way WOW!!!!

[djmikey]

Not just for you NTexans.. ..us southern Texas folks having to deal with highs in the 20's and lows in the low teens....thats really going to cause some serious issues down here.

back to the 0z GFS...dont think I have ever seen a colder run for the lower 48 since I started looking at weather.

Thanks ROCK! Everyone kept talking about NTX. Started wondering how far South this thing will go in TX and what it would be like for the HOU area and STX.

[orangeblood]

According to the this morning GFS ensembles, Late next week (the 12-14th time range) is the period to watch for a big winter storm breaking out across Texas. Right now, it's hard to pin point exactly where but that's what is being depicted by the models ATM.

[Portastorm]

Kinda sad. Just read the NWSFO BRO forecast discussion from this afternoon. No mention whatsoever of next week's potential Arctic Outbreak. If this thing comes close to what we are seeing now, I would hate to see ag interests in the Valley with little time to prepare.

[HockeyTx82]

Kinda sad. Just read the NWSFO BRO forecast discussion from this afternoon. No mention whatsoever of next week's potential Arctic Outbreak. If this thing comes close to what we are seeing now, I would hate to see ag interests in the Valley with little time to prepare.

Perhaps they know something we don't?

[Snowman67]

NWS Houston doesn't say much, but does make a mention of the potential cold air.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[orangeblood]

Kinda sad. Just read the NWSFO BRO forecast discussion from this afternoon. No mention whatsoever of next week's potential Arctic Outbreak. If this thing comes close to what we are seeing now, I would hate to see ag interests in the Valley with little time to prepare.

Perhaps they know something we don't?

I think they just decided to not even discuss anything outside of their 7 day forecast range. Which is very odd, considering the potential for a severe event not seen in decades down there

[iorange55]

They're not going to really say what it's forecasting because really they'd sound crazy.

[southerngale]

Brief mention by NWS LCH AFD this afternoon:

COULD BE SOME VERY COLD AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THIS WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER...
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

[Tejas89]

FW office afternoon update. Highs in the 20's late next week. It will need to get colder than that for any comparison to '83.

BEYOND DAY 7...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE US NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUILD 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 580DM OVER THIS REGION BY
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING
EXTREMELY COLD AIR TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE 1069MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ITS
00Z RUN AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A 1063MB HIGH.
THE FIRST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AT THAT TIME. WHAT MAKES THIS SETUP SO CONCERNING IS NOT SIMPLY
THE MODEL OUTPUT BUT RATHER THE IMPACT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER ALASKA WOULD HAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTREMELY COLD AND DENSE AIR
OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF INDICATES HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 20S BY WED/THU WHICH IS VERY CONCERNING. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BEGIN TO
HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS PIPES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.