Texas Winter 2025-2026

[gpsnowman]

https://youtube.com/shorts/7MzPTwi3jqo?si=EPlBfw9DJq0c_5Yb

Oklahoma looks beautiful.

This is awesome. So close yet so far......

[rwfromkansas]

The snow looks so pretty up there. I had so many students say it was supposed to snow in DFW today. No idea where they heard that. Lol.

[Stratton23]

Looking at the newest euro weeklies, it to me is just a matter of time before the models start showing a dam burst type situation in the US , +TNH in canada is going to really load up cold air, and eventually it has to get displaced southward, give it another week or so and i bet we are going to see some really crazy model runs, we will see

[Cpv17]

Looking at the newest euro weeklies, it to me is just a matter of time before the models start showing a dam burst type situation in the US , +TNH in canada is going to really load up cold air, and eventually it has to get displaced southward, give it another week or so and i bet we are going to see some really crazy model runs, we will see

I’m bored with the models, I need it lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Looking at the newest euro weeklies, it to me is just a matter of time before the models start showing a dam burst type situation in the US , +TNH in canada is going to really load up cold air, and eventually it has to get displaced southward, give it another week or so and i bet we are going to see some really crazy model runs, we will see

Until the epo goes negative on the gefs eps, we got a ways to go for the southern plains imo.

[Cpv17]

Looking at the newest euro weeklies, it to me is just a matter of time before the models start showing a dam burst type situation in the US , +TNH in canada is going to really load up cold air, and eventually it has to get displaced southward, give it another week or so and i bet we are going to see some really crazy model runs, we will see

Until the epo goes negative on the gefs eps, we got a ways to go for the southern plains imo.

Yep, EPO rules the roost around here. Need a big Alaskan ridge to pop and go poleward.

[Stratton23]

The EPO is definitely trending negative on those ensembles, i have access to a teleconnection chart on weather-bell which updates 4 times a day like the GFS , EPO is positive this week, but their is a clear trend toward a - EPO on the ensembles around the time the cold air will be building in western and central canada, its not crazy negative yet but it does go negative lol

[txtwister78]

Right now all ensemble data from all three models points to mostly warmer weather relative to averages until the 18th/19th.

Obviously beyond that it's anyone's guess. I would love cold and snow over this crud we've been locked under down here (drizzle and low 50's). Get me out of that and fortunately that's coming by the weekend and beyond when the sun and warmer weather returns.

[Stratton23]

It could be a lot worse , i can tolerate a 70 degree reading here and there, warmup incoming looks mostly mid 60’s to low 70’s so more average seasonal, thankfully nothing remotely close to a torch pattern

[Iceresistance]

The EPO is definitely trending negative on those ensembles, i have access to a teleconnection chart on weather-bell which updates 4 times a day like the GFS , EPO is positive this week, but their is a clear trend toward a - EPO on the ensembles around the time the cold air will be building in western and central canada, its not crazy negative yet but it does go negative lol

 https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1996676649396338916

[Stratton23]

If im wrong about this cold pattern, ill own up to it, but ive seen enough to be convinced that their should be an abundant supply of cold air in our source region just sitting, waiting to be released

[txtwister78]

It could be a lot worse , i can tolerate a 70 degree reading here and there, warmup incoming looks mostly mid 60’s to low 70’s so more average seasonal, thankfully nothing remotely close to a torch pattern

Yeah depending on where you reside in the state that's probably a good range although wouldn't be shocked at all to see mid 70's further south across our region and maybe upper 70's to near 80 in the LRGV but in December widespread 80's would constitute a 'torch pattern". Probably not there as we should get a few weak fronts mixed in.

[rwfromkansas]

It could be a lot worse , i can tolerate a 70 degree reading here and there, warmup incoming looks mostly mid 60’s to low 70’s so more average seasonal, thankfully nothing remotely close to a torch pattern

I don't mind 60s and 70s during the warm periods, just not 80s. Lol.

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/griteater/status/1996681680900215223

[Stratton23]

18z AIFS has some bitterly cold arctic air entering the north central us plains at the end of its run

[Harp.1]

18z AIFS has some bitterly cold arctic air entering the north central us plains at the end of its run

But will there be a delivery mechanism? That’s the million dollar question.

[Cpv17]

18z AIFS has some bitterly cold arctic air entering the north central us plains at the end of its run

But will there be a delivery mechanism? That’s the million dollar question.

Exactly, that’s why I think we need the AO to go negative. From the way I understand it, if the AO is negative that’s the mechanism to push it south.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

18z AIFS has some bitterly cold arctic air entering the north central us plains at the end of its run

But will there be a delivery mechanism? That’s the million dollar question.

Exactly, that’s why I think we need the AO to go negative. From the way I understand it, if the AO is negative that’s the mechanism to push it south.

Or the epo will help also. We haven't seen orangeblood or wxman57 to give insight.

[Stratton23]

While the AO certainly helps when its negative, the fact we are seeing another - EPO/ WPO combination should be enough to drive the cold air south, this cold blast this week was driven by both of these teleconnections despite the AO being positive this week, however the AO is forecast to go negative/ neutral over the next 2 weeks so we may have a -AO/EPO/WPO pattern to work with

[Brent]

https://youtube.com/shorts/7MzPTwi3jqo?si=EPlBfw9DJq0c_5Yb

Oklahoma looks beautiful.

Look how narrow that band was! Literally no precip anywhere else north of it. The entire metro of Tulsa was totally dry and OKC barely had flakes after all the fears about an icy commute again. The precip was extremely limited outside of that narrow band



But yeah I refuse to believe we won't get a better setup than that eventually on December 4th no way. We can quote this later if we don't

Still probably the earliest I've seen accumulating snow around here this decade