Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Spring precipitation...

1928 - indicative of a La Nina (dry across the southern U.S.)




2005 - weak El Nino (very wet across the SW through the middle of the country all the way to NE).





1993 featured a bone dry February... a warm March... and a below normal April.

AND... it also saw Southern California get hammered during a WEAK EL NINO.

That is SOOOOO much closer to 2005.

[TT-SEA]

1993 is the best match.

1941 is a close second.


Remember the winter of 1993-94 saw almost no lowland snow. Despite some snow in the foothills.

Bellingham had .7 of an inch (yes... less than an inch) for the entire winter of 1993-94.


As I have been saying... the odds of a wetter than normal summer are increasing. The odds of a cold, snowy winter in 2005-06 are very low.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...April 1993 averaged 50.6 in Seattle. I was using 49.0 as a breakoff point. 50.6 may be above normal.

You are limiting your comparison years way too much. I think we should both find 10. That would be more meaningful. There is no way to make a definitive prediction for next winter yet! We don't even know what the Enso is going to be for sure. Way too soon.

[TT-SEA]

We will be right around 50.6 degrees for an average this April after all is said and done. Making 1993 an incredibly close match.

Remember... compare apples to apples.

We have seen the cold part of April 2005... now we will see the warm part.

It was also in a period of persistent weak to moderate El Nino like we have been in since 2002.

This is what Don Sutherland had to say on the subject...

The most similar season with regard to the MEI was 1992-1993. The average difference from the 2004-05 figure was 0.160. Summer 1993 saw the weak winter El Niño blossom into a moderate one during the spring and summer months.

[TT-SEA]

Rain has stopped.

We are heading up to the house to see what was accomplished this week.


Snow_Wizzard... remember when looking for analog years... start with a weak El Nino and a wet winter in California. The pattern this winter was very unique and global in nature. But it has happened before. After you find that... then look for other similarities.

Do not start with Seattle data. You will be misleading yourself.

[TT-SEA]

For clarifcation... a super wet winter in Southern California in a weak
El Nino is an indicator a global pattern.

Seattle being above or below normal in April is NOT.

[AnthonyC]

Today is shaping up to be a nice afternoon...although it's windy. Wind gusts have not exceeded 30 mph, though.

I'm ready for some sunny/warm weather.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Well...That is going to make us depart from 1993 then...We are not going into a moderate El Nino this spring and summer. We are at neutral right now.

I still say that 1 or 2 comparison years is not enough. You need to be looking at a broader base. I remember when I first found 1928 that you said one year is meaningless.

I am a bit surpriused how you are ignoring the trough the GFS is showing to finish out the month. If that really happens the month will average below 49.0.

You should also take into account that the running averages for the PNA, AO, and NAO are all negative for the first time since 1975, after last winter. Remember that the mid 1970s was when we first entered the warmer climate phase (right when the indices went positive). Those indices are important. By the way...the NCDC graph shows the running average slightly positive for the PNA, but I did the math myself (two times) and it should be negative. They made a mistake somewhere. The running average is derived from the monthly index values for the last 5 years, for Jan - Mar only.

[W13]

Holy Cow! The temp is Covington is down to 42 degrees! I don't care if it means anything or not. That is cold for this time of year!

We got down to 41 F earlier and it is currently 45 F with light rain falling. It is also a little bit breezy out there.

[snow_wizzard]

We have a heavy shower and gusty winds in Covington. The temperature has now fallen back to well below 50 again, after a brief spike earlier.

[snow_wizzard]

Here's a good one! 1934, 1970, and 1988 were years that had a March PDO value of +1 to +2 and had a very dry Feb. The results were also good for a cold winter with all of the +1 to +2 PDO years. This map is for Feb - Mar of the following winter.

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/map.gif

How do you make the images open automatically?

[TT-SEA]

You are going about this backwards.

You are picking snowy winters and backing up from there. And then finding just one aspect of that spring to match.








How are these similar to each other or this year??? All three are completely different than this spring.

[TT-SEA]

And the precipitation pattern for the spring is TOTALLY wrong.... in all THREE years.








No offense... but all three years are thrown out. Completely. All three had completely different patterns to this year.

[TT-SEA]

You need to start with a pattern that was able to create a STRONG southern jet stream slamming into California.

1934... 1970... and 1988 all featured DRY spring weather in Southern California.

One or two indexes do not determine the pattern. These are not even close to 1941 or 1993.

[TT-SEA]

I know you hate California. But you cannot ignore the amazingly unique aspect of this winter. A pattern that can create a strong southern jet into California in a weak El Nino is very special.

It did happen in 1941 and 1993.

BTW - there is some real consideration that we will head back into an El Nino this summer. The MEI expert thinks its a distinct possibility. The forecast models are just picking up on this now.

[TT-SEA]

Trust me... find a year that compares closely and I will definitely support it even if it shows a snowy winter coming.

I doubt that you can find a better match than 1993.

And since I think it is a repeat of 1993... I bet we will see the ENSO conditions follow suit.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...1988 is certainly a bit of a problem. While it does not match your criteria, it is a very good match in a number of ways. It has come up as a daily analog many times in the past few months, while 1993 hasn't. It also had the correct PDO value, the very dry Feb, the correct 200mb zonal wind index in April, and other good matches. It will be fascintaing, one year from now, to look back and see who ends up being right.

I am doubtful about the El Nino making any kind of a serious appearance this summer. My friend at NOAA said it is very rare for an El Nino to wane and come back in the same year. He's the best expert I know of in that area.

I will have my list of 10 (let's actually say 5 - 10) years by the end of next week. I will run them through the map maker and see what happens. You can do the same with yours, and we shall see who's right! It goes without saying that we can reserve the right to change our minds as next winter draws closer.

[TT-SEA]

An waning El Nino returning has happened many times in the same year. As you know... it happened in 1993 as well.

Of course those are not years you want to look at because the result is a warmer and drier than normal winter!!

Somehow... I bet all the years you come up with will have snowy winters coming.


Anything is possible. But its not very likely based on what I am seeing.

[snow_wizzard]

One big problem with 1941 is, it had a strong El Nino. It was a much stronger event than this season. I have an El Nino list back to the 1880s, that gives intensities, if you would like a copy. It is on paper, so I would have to scan it or mail it to you.

If we can find some years that we both agree on, it would be very meaningful. That is the beauty of dissenting opinions!

By the way...could tell me how to make pix and maps open automatically?

[snow_wizzard]

I am talking about when an El Nino completely disappears. In the 90s, the El Nino simply changed intensity, but did not end. The guy that told me this, makes the big money studying and speaking about El Nino and other related topics, so I do believe him.