Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

Here is our front; as wxman57 noted, it had washed out a bit with daytime warming but should continue the southward march through the variable/light wind area soon.

[utweather]

Temps are running colder than the 21z SREF at both OKC and Amarillo. Upstream is cooling faster than modeled.

What are the temps higher up where the warm nose is and how thick is that layer?

[rwfromkansas]

From FWD. Seems to say more regular rain at the start? That’s a wrench. Before the wind was supposed to cool things, but now it’s a warm rain.

“The main challenge with this event will be precipitation type and
amounts. It will start out as all rain with a substantial warm
nose aloft. The latest NAM guidance models this well, with strong
forcing resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across North
Texas. This rain will be relatively warm, and the model actually
significantly slows surface cooling into the evening hours. This
may limit ice accumulation initially. Of course, this depends on
whether or not the temperature forecast pans out. If we do stay
with all rain for a while longer, then there should be a quicker
transition to sleet then snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. For this forecast, we`ve nudged down ice accumulations in
the Metroplex a tad and raised sleet/snow accums. Farther to the
northeast, it looks like it`ll get colder a little faster, so no
significant changes to ice accumulations were made. A transition
to sleet then snow is expected in most areas through Thursday
before drier mid level air spreads into the region and ends the
precipitation.”

[Cerlin]

Had some pretty strong rain for a few minutes. Temperatures have been falling at a rate of 3 degrees per hour here. We’re at 44 meaning we only need about 4 hours to hit the freezing line, which would be at around 4 am or 2-3 hours ahead of schedule. This thing is moving!

[Brent]

Had some pretty strong rain for a few minutes. Temperatures have been falling at a rate of 3 degrees per hour here. We’re at 44 meaning we only need about 4 hours to hit the freezing line, which would be at around 4 am or 2-3 hours ahead of schedule. This thing is moving!

I gotta be honest I'm feeling pretty hyped here... I still think the ceiling is high regardless what the models show

[Cpv17]

The 12Z run this morning was nuts late in the run! Of course, it’s gone on the 18Z.

With it being that far out, you’re going to see some significant changes from run to run on the operationals. Best to look at the GEFS and see if it keeps the same signal. When you start seeing that same signal consistently for around the same timeframe then that definitely should raise some eyebrows.

Latest GEFS now showing what Op has been hinting at for mid month….PV appearance into Minnesota ???


https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1643738400/1645012800-bhgfFEgBJjY.png

Yeah that’s a pretty good looking setup! Hoping we can keep these cold shots coming in for sure.

[cheezyWXguy]

From FWD. Seems to say more regular rain at the start? That’s a wrench. Before the wind was supposed to cool things, but now it’s a warm rain.

“The main challenge with this event will be precipitation type and
amounts. It will start out as all rain with a substantial warm
nose aloft. The latest NAM guidance models this well, with strong
forcing resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across North
Texas. This rain will be relatively warm, and the model actually
significantly slows surface cooling into the evening hours. This
may limit ice accumulation initially. Of course, this depends on
whether or not the temperature forecast pans out. If we do stay
with all rain for a while longer, then there should be a quicker
transition to sleet then snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. For this forecast, we`ve nudged down ice accumulations in
the Metroplex a tad and raised sleet/snow accums. Farther to the
northeast, it looks like it`ll get colder a little faster, so no
significant changes to ice accumulations were made. A transition
to sleet then snow is expected in most areas through Thursday
before drier mid level air spreads into the region and ends the
precipitation.”

I’m not sure why they are hugging the NAM given its inconsistencies, but hey, they’re the experts

[Haris]

From FWD. Seems to say more regular rain at the start? That’s a wrench. Before the wind was supposed to cool things, but now it’s a warm rain.

“The main challenge with this event will be precipitation type and
amounts. It will start out as all rain with a substantial warm
nose aloft. The latest NAM guidance models this well, with strong
forcing resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across North
Texas. This rain will be relatively warm, and the model actually
significantly slows surface cooling into the evening hours. This
may limit ice accumulation initially. Of course, this depends on
whether or not the temperature forecast pans out. If we do stay
with all rain for a while longer, then there should be a quicker
transition to sleet then snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. For this forecast, we`ve nudged down ice accumulations in
the Metroplex a tad and raised sleet/snow accums. Farther to the
northeast, it looks like it`ll get colder a little faster, so no
significant changes to ice accumulations were made. A transition
to sleet then snow is expected in most areas through Thursday
before drier mid level air spreads into the region and ends the
precipitation.”

I’m not sure why they are hugging the NAM given its inconsistencies, but hey, they’re the experts

I dont know much about that area to comment on it but I do agree its a risky bet. Esp with the run to run variability.

[bevolon]

From FWD. Seems to say more regular rain at the start? That’s a wrench. Before the wind was supposed to cool things, but now it’s a warm rain.

“The main challenge with this event will be precipitation type and
amounts. It will start out as all rain with a substantial warm
nose aloft. The latest NAM guidance models this well, with strong
forcing resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across North
Texas. This rain will be relatively warm, and the model actually
significantly slows surface cooling into the evening hours. This
may limit ice accumulation initially. Of course, this depends on
whether or not the temperature forecast pans out. If we do stay
with all rain for a while longer, then there should be a quicker
transition to sleet then snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. For this forecast, we`ve nudged down ice accumulations in
the Metroplex a tad and raised sleet/snow accums. Farther to the
northeast, it looks like it`ll get colder a little faster, so no
significant changes to ice accumulations were made. A transition
to sleet then snow is expected in most areas through Thursday
before drier mid level air spreads into the region and ends the
precipitation.”

I’m not sure why they are hugging the NAM given its inconsistencies, but hey, they’re the experts

What is the next thing everyone will be watching?

I dont know much about that area to comment on it but I do agree its a risky bet. Esp with the run to run variability.

[EnnisTx]

From FWD. Seems to say more regular rain at the start? That’s a wrench. Before the wind was supposed to cool things, but now it’s a warm rain.

“The main challenge with this event will be precipitation type and
amounts. It will start out as all rain with a substantial warm
nose aloft. The latest NAM guidance models this well, with strong
forcing resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across North
Texas. This rain will be relatively warm, and the model actually
significantly slows surface cooling into the evening hours. This
may limit ice accumulation initially. Of course, this depends on
whether or not the temperature forecast pans out. If we do stay
with all rain for a while longer, then there should be a quicker
transition to sleet then snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. For this forecast, we`ve nudged down ice accumulations in
the Metroplex a tad and raised sleet/snow accums. Farther to the
northeast, it looks like it`ll get colder a little faster, so no
significant changes to ice accumulations were made. A transition
to sleet then snow is expected in most areas through Thursday
before drier mid level air spreads into the region and ends the
precipitation.”

That’s not really a bad thing, it would help to limit the ice accumulating on power lines and trees, limiting possible power outages and up the sleet and changeover to snow increasing those accumulations.

[orangeblood]

From FWD. Seems to say more regular rain at the start? That’s a wrench. Before the wind was supposed to cool things, but now it’s a warm rain.

“The main challenge with this event will be precipitation type and
amounts. It will start out as all rain with a substantial warm
nose aloft. The latest NAM guidance models this well, with strong
forcing resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across North
Texas. This rain will be relatively warm, and the model actually
significantly slows surface cooling into the evening hours. This
may limit ice accumulation initially. Of course, this depends on
whether or not the temperature forecast pans out. If we do stay
with all rain for a while longer, then there should be a quicker
transition to sleet then snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. For this forecast, we`ve nudged down ice accumulations in
the Metroplex a tad and raised sleet/snow accums. Farther to the
northeast, it looks like it`ll get colder a little faster, so no
significant changes to ice accumulations were made. A transition
to sleet then snow is expected in most areas through Thursday
before drier mid level air spreads into the region and ends the
precipitation.”

That’s not really a bad thing, it would help to limit the ice accumulating on power lines and trees, limiting possible power outages and up the sleet and changeover to snow increasing those accumulations.

Yep, this would be a good thing but not sure I’m buying it looking at forecast soundings…NAM has the warmest 850 temps and isn’t really that warm 3-4 C. Latest Euro and GFS Ops have it eroding even quicker now. Really important variable to watch over next few runs

[Ntxw]

6z HRRR is still looking like a pretty quick transition. It will be quite a bit of snow if that verified. Freezing precip down in Austin early Thurs morning.

[Haris]

6z HRRR is still looking like a pretty quick transition. It will be quite a bit of snow if that verified. Freezing precip down in Austin early Thurs morning.

What a run !!

[orangeblood]

6z HRRR is still looking like a pretty quick transition. It will be quite a bit of snow if that verified. Freezing precip down in Austin early Thurs morning.

Yep, frz line moving through Metroplex b/w 10pm - Midnight. Has it all and all quite heavy



Can clearly see the quicker transition to snow just before sunrise Thursday

[Ntxw]

6z HRRR is still looking like a pretty quick transition. It will be quite a bit of snow if that verified. Freezing precip down in Austin early Thurs morning.

Yep, frz line moving through Metroplex b/w 10pm - Midnight. Has it all and all quite heavy

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1643781600/1643868000-cgxS8oguqdw.png

That would be like 3-6 for Dallas county and 6-10 for Tarrant. IF verified.

Edit: Collin and Denton same ballparks.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like the front is right on DFW's doorstep. Currently crossing through Weatherford before entering west Fort Worth. It should be through the metroplex by 3-4 am. About 4 hours ahead of schedule. This will determine if the metroplex gets freezing rain, sleet, or snow.

Approximation of where the cold front is right now as of 2 AM:

[Ntxw]

6z nam sped up the freeze line. West of 35 may get there before 9pm. Most by 4z.

[EnnisTx]

6z HRRR is still looking like a pretty quick transition. It will be quite a bit of snow if that verified. Freezing precip down in Austin early Thurs morning.

Yep, frz line moving through Metroplex b/w 10pm - Midnight. Has it all and all quite heavy

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1643781600/1643868000-cgxS8oguqdw.png

Can clearly see the quicker transition to snow just before sunrise Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1643781600/1643886000-G5FFDczNlnc.png

That’s some pretty clown maps right there. Hopefully they will verify.

[funster]

Ice increase from a near 2 am NWS discussion:

Given the out performance of the cold air, we have increased our
ice forecast amounts from the previous forecast. Although totals
might be a touch lower immediately within the Metroplex, we are
still forecasting a significant icing event for most of the area.
Ice totals between 1/4-1/2+ are possible in Denton and Cooke
counties east to Paris and north of I-20. This area has the
highest potential to experience widespread impacts that linger
into Saturday. We are now also forecasting isolated spots up to
1/4 to 1/3" of ice across parts of Central Texas roughly along the
I-35 corridor including the cities of Waco and Killeen. Due to
this, we will expand the Winter Storm Warning to include all of
our counties.

Also has 1-3 inches of snow and sleet for metroplex

[gpsnowman]

Today is the day folks. Almost nowcast time. In about 12 hours we will be watching the freeze line slowly make its way to DFW. Everyone stay safe the next few days.