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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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TT-SEA
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Sorry TT but I am just not seeing the evidence that you think is soo broad that we won't get the old fashion winters anymore... I mean, you are ignoring some of the serious opportunities we have had recently to fulfull those requirements of an old fashion winter... I mean, wasn't it just a few months ago that we were flirting with a pattern similar to 1950? If the indexes would have been right, that could have developed into something huge... The indexes have nothing to do with global warming so therefore you can't say the indexes weren't right because of global warming... And you are using a lot of stuff that has happened since 1990... you can't talk about 15 years and say global warming.. How do you know there wasn't a similar cycle before we kept records? And look at the last 8 years before the big cold phase between 1945 and 1975... The previous 8 years to that cold phase ended with warmer and less snowy winters... Remind you of our past 8 winters?
Anyways, i think you are going way too haywire on the global warming thing... Sure there could be global warming, but you are throwing things way out of proportion here. An arctic outbreak can happen at any time and will. The lack of snows in the past 8 years isn't due to global warming, simply the phase we are in is not favorable for snow in the NW and that has been clear... I mean, by saying global warming is seriously affecting us, you must think it is really taking off in the last 15 years because the late 80's and early 90's had several winters that could very well fit the criteria of an old fashion winter.... 85-86, 88-89.. 90-91, 92-93, even 95-96 wasn't all that bad of a winter... Hell, 96-97 could darn near be thrown in there. It wasn't exceptionally cold but we did have 2 blasts of cold air and pretty good snows with each... The past 8 years has just been hell for our winters and it's about time to snap out of it.. There was an 8 year cold and snow drought before the last phase... I think we are at the end of our drought before the next cold pase.
Anyways, i think you are going way too haywire on the global warming thing... Sure there could be global warming, but you are throwing things way out of proportion here. An arctic outbreak can happen at any time and will. The lack of snows in the past 8 years isn't due to global warming, simply the phase we are in is not favorable for snow in the NW and that has been clear... I mean, by saying global warming is seriously affecting us, you must think it is really taking off in the last 15 years because the late 80's and early 90's had several winters that could very well fit the criteria of an old fashion winter.... 85-86, 88-89.. 90-91, 92-93, even 95-96 wasn't all that bad of a winter... Hell, 96-97 could darn near be thrown in there. It wasn't exceptionally cold but we did have 2 blasts of cold air and pretty good snows with each... The past 8 years has just been hell for our winters and it's about time to snap out of it.. There was an 8 year cold and snow drought before the last phase... I think we are at the end of our drought before the next cold pase.
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Just checking in here in Moses Lake. Yesterday we started out mostly sunny, but by mid day we had thunderstorms surrounding us and high winds, it was kind of cool. I got some pics and will post them when I get home on Wednesday.
Right now its 37 degrees and mostly clear skies at 7:00am
Sounds like we had an awful weekend over there! Glad i was here
Right now its 37 degrees and mostly clear skies at 7:00am
Sounds like we had an awful weekend over there! Glad i was here
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TT-SEA
It wasn't such a bad weekend.
Here in North Bend we had rain Saturday morning and then lots of sun breaks by afternoon.
Yesterday we had some very light rain in the morning and then again lots of sun breaks all afternoon (along with scattered showers).
I have seen much worse. It was actually quite pretty on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Sunshine... dark clouds... a few rainbows. Not bad.
Here in North Bend we had rain Saturday morning and then lots of sun breaks by afternoon.
Yesterday we had some very light rain in the morning and then again lots of sun breaks all afternoon (along with scattered showers).
I have seen much worse. It was actually quite pretty on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Sunshine... dark clouds... a few rainbows. Not bad.
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TT-SEA
Brennan... the problem with assuming a cold cycle will return like it always has and plunge us below normal is that our normal patterns seem to have been replaced by a gradual warming everywhere.
In the last 10 years there is NO place in the country that has seen colder winters.
The West has been in a warm cycle... but other places should have been in a cold cycle.
Instead... we all got warmer!!
I don't think a cold cycle will make a difference any longer. It will just slightly slow our continued warming.
Looking at the pattern this past winter... maybe the situation in January was as good as it gets. But 50 years ago that same pattern would have been much more cold and snowy for Western Washington.
In the last 10 years there is NO place in the country that has seen colder winters.
The West has been in a warm cycle... but other places should have been in a cold cycle.
Instead... we all got warmer!!
I don't think a cold cycle will make a difference any longer. It will just slightly slow our continued warming.
Looking at the pattern this past winter... maybe the situation in January was as good as it gets. But 50 years ago that same pattern would have been much more cold and snowy for Western Washington.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Viewing the latest 06z GFS this morning....looks like this week should reamain mostly dry and pleasently mild through about the 24th as 850MB temps will be in the range of +6 to +9C with 500MB vorticity heights around 564DM. ECMWF, and Canadain model also showing high pressure in place through the weekend. Seattle MOS shows high temps in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s and partly cloudy skies through this week. Looks like shower may return for begining of next work week. Am not seeing any kind of big troughs of low pressure in the longer range outlook.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
The 12Z run of the GFS still maintains the theme of offshore flow... relatively high 500mb heights... and very little precipitation through the coming weekend.
Not sure how warm it will get... there are more than the usual number of variables at play here this week. Suffice to say... our high temperatures will be well above normal.
Interestingly... next week the high becomes better established across the Western U.S. and we may get southerly flow and very warm temperatures. Could even be mountain thunderstorms next week... much like a pattern in the summer.
No cold troughs... no significant rainfall through the end of the month.
Not sure how warm it will get... there are more than the usual number of variables at play here this week. Suffice to say... our high temperatures will be well above normal.
Interestingly... next week the high becomes better established across the Western U.S. and we may get southerly flow and very warm temperatures. Could even be mountain thunderstorms next week... much like a pattern in the summer.
No cold troughs... no significant rainfall through the end of the month.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
I have been pondering this global warming scenario and I think I agree with Snow_Wizzard on one aspect.
We will enter a colder cycle eventually here in the United States and although the overall increase in temperatures will likely continue... we should have some winters that average below normal.
As Snow_Wizzard said... it may be a three steps foward and two steps back situation.
I honestly doubt that we can get one of the those wild winters of the past during our lifetime. But there still may be a few good winters in this impending cold cycle.
I also think Snow_Wizzard was born in the wrong century. There was a "Little Ice Age" from 1400 through 1860. It was charcterized by incredibly harsh winters and short growing seasons. I would love to have records from that era in what is now Seattle!!!
I personally would not have wanted to live back then. Nor would I want a "Little Ice Age" today. It would be very costly in terms of dollars and lives.
We will enter a colder cycle eventually here in the United States and although the overall increase in temperatures will likely continue... we should have some winters that average below normal.
As Snow_Wizzard said... it may be a three steps foward and two steps back situation.
I honestly doubt that we can get one of the those wild winters of the past during our lifetime. But there still may be a few good winters in this impending cold cycle.
I also think Snow_Wizzard was born in the wrong century. There was a "Little Ice Age" from 1400 through 1860. It was charcterized by incredibly harsh winters and short growing seasons. I would love to have records from that era in what is now Seattle!!!
I personally would not have wanted to live back then. Nor would I want a "Little Ice Age" today. It would be very costly in terms of dollars and lives.
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TT-SEA
Remember though... we are fighting against an entire planet that is getting progressively warmer.
So if we do get a somewhat snowy winter in Western Washington... we should consider ourselves very lucky. Because with every year that passes it becomes less likely.
See this excerpt...
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0409/feature1/
So if we do get a somewhat snowy winter in Western Washington... we should consider ourselves very lucky. Because with every year that passes it becomes less likely.
See this excerpt...
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0409/feature1/
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TT you can not say that a big snowstormy winter is getting more unlikely... Many places of the United States have actually had the snowiest winters of all time in the past 10 years. Look at the gulf coast for example, a place got 12 inches of snow that hadn't recieved more than an inch in over 80 years. Cleveland just broke its all time snowiest season that was set just back in 1995-1996... The two snowiest winters ever have been in the past 10 years there. Look at New england... Some places there had the snowiest january on record this year. A huge winter like the old days WILL happen again and it will be soon. I consider a winter equal to 1988-1989 or even 1990-1991 to be an old fashion winter and those winters weren't too long ago.
TT i think you will change your mind about the winters after these next couple years, and maybe even after just next winter... You will see, our old fashion winters will be back...I really don't see why you think it won't happen again in our lifetime.. It isn't that hard to get a big arctic blast down here, you just have to have the right ingredients... Global warming had no effect on this last january and why we got screwed. The indexes didn't totally support the super cold arctic blast... When we enter the cold phase we will get more winters where the AO, PNA, and NAO are all negative and that is when we will get slammed... IT WILL HAPPEN...
TT i think you will change your mind about the winters after these next couple years, and maybe even after just next winter... You will see, our old fashion winters will be back...I really don't see why you think it won't happen again in our lifetime.. It isn't that hard to get a big arctic blast down here, you just have to have the right ingredients... Global warming had no effect on this last january and why we got screwed. The indexes didn't totally support the super cold arctic blast... When we enter the cold phase we will get more winters where the AO, PNA, and NAO are all negative and that is when we will get slammed... IT WILL HAPPEN...
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Not a bad afternoon...I was hoping for more sunshine today, but the rest of the week looks awesome!
Latest models are in disagreement about Thursday...will the cutoff low meander north and affect our region? In the worst scenario, we would have mostly cloudy conditions...particularly middle/high level clouds...and nothing more aside from a stray shower here and there.
500 mb heights don't skyrocket, but it's only the end of April. From what I see, mid-upper 60s is where we will peak this week...aside from the southwest interior, I don't think anyone will hit the 70F mark.
At least the pattern is finally changing!!
Anthony
Latest models are in disagreement about Thursday...will the cutoff low meander north and affect our region? In the worst scenario, we would have mostly cloudy conditions...particularly middle/high level clouds...and nothing more aside from a stray shower here and there.
500 mb heights don't skyrocket, but it's only the end of April. From what I see, mid-upper 60s is where we will peak this week...aside from the southwest interior, I don't think anyone will hit the 70F mark.
At least the pattern is finally changing!!
Anthony
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TT-SEA
Brennan... the entire country began an overall warming trend (particularly in the winter months) around 1990. So that may not seem that long ago... but much has changed since then.
Here is a chart of all winters combined since 1990. The fact that no place in the country is colder than average over the last 15 years is nothing short of amazing. Almost the entire country is significantly warmer. Without global warming... we should see some places colder and some places warmer. That would be typical over a span of time depending on the cycle. Look back at other decades and this is the case.
Not anymore.
I know that warmer winters can mean MORE snow in places that typically have true "winter" weather. That means places like Boston or Cleveland. Until the warming becomes overwhelming.
I think the south Texas event was just a freak occurence. Places in the Southeast U.S. have definitely seen less snow in the last 10 years.
That is because they are on the edge of true winter. Any warming would typically put them out of the snow range for most events. This is true in Western Washington as well.
A freak occurrence could happen. But the odds are increasingly against us with every passing year.
Here is a chart of all winters combined since 1990. The fact that no place in the country is colder than average over the last 15 years is nothing short of amazing. Almost the entire country is significantly warmer. Without global warming... we should see some places colder and some places warmer. That would be typical over a span of time depending on the cycle. Look back at other decades and this is the case.
Not anymore.
I know that warmer winters can mean MORE snow in places that typically have true "winter" weather. That means places like Boston or Cleveland. Until the warming becomes overwhelming.
I think the south Texas event was just a freak occurence. Places in the Southeast U.S. have definitely seen less snow in the last 10 years.
That is because they are on the edge of true winter. Any warming would typically put them out of the snow range for most events. This is true in Western Washington as well.
A freak occurrence could happen. But the odds are increasingly against us with every passing year.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Viewing the latest Models early this evening...it appears that this week should still reamain mostly dry with exception of a very spotty sprinkle on the 22nd and again on the 25th with more of a chance for them to be around. Scattered showers appear to be back in the forecast by Tuesday of next week.
Interesting enough, looks like the mid-layer of the atmosphere plays loop-de-lu with a cut-off low near the four corners area for couple days before spinning it northward and then west over the cascades and on top of us by around the 21st/22nd. The low then heads out over the ocean be a few hundered miles, to which it swings in the Northern Cal by the 25th, and then finally making it`s way out toward the lower central U.S by the 27th.
-- Andy
Interesting enough, looks like the mid-layer of the atmosphere plays loop-de-lu with a cut-off low near the four corners area for couple days before spinning it northward and then west over the cascades and on top of us by around the 21st/22nd. The low then heads out over the ocean be a few hundered miles, to which it swings in the Northern Cal by the 25th, and then finally making it`s way out toward the lower central U.S by the 27th.
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
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