Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Hmm, looking at the HRRR Model reflectivity, I'm a bit worried that most of the wrap around stuff is sliding off to the east of Austin. Should we expect more precip to develop out to the west?

I'm not sure what you're looking at but I just checked out the 18z HRRR model composite reflectivity and I see plenty of moisture over Austin over the next 12 hours. Per that model run, precip starts in earnest around 8 p.m.

In fact, it shows somewhere around a half inch of snow for Austin by tomorrow morning. But I do see what you're talking about in terms of the heavier precip spreading east northeast from Austin into the College Station and even into central Louisiana.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Interesting little band of snow on the radar just south west of Mineral Wells. Go NoTx!

[Portastorm]

Reports coming in that rain is changing over to sleet now in Temple.

My guess is that we'll see the changeover here in Austin by 6 p.m. if this trend continues.

[Ntxw]

Fun times in Waco right now reporting 31F light snow and winds gusting 33mph

[veedub63]

Reports coming in that rain is changing over to sleet now in Temple.

My guess is that we'll see the changeover here in Austin by 6 p.m. if this trend continues.

Boy, I hope so. Keeping my hope up here in Lago.....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Our coastal low hasn't even wound up yet.....

[Tireman4]

This could end up being an interesting late night/early morning.

[HouTXmetro]

Have the models come into agreement on a coastal lo developing?

[Tireman4]

Fun times in Waco right now reporting 31F light snow and winds gusting 33mph

Is it me or was snow supposed to wait until later? Maybe I am off Ntxw...Also, was it supposed to be this widespread this early?

[Portastorm]

For my fellow South Central Texans who appear to be standing outside on the ledge this afternoon ... don't despair. Come on back in the office, close the window behind you, sit down and read this:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
DETERIORATING WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...ALONG WITH THE ADVECTION OF VERY LOW
DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WERE ALREADY
APPROACHING FREEZING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE LIGHT RAIN. WILL SEE MANY HILL COUNTRY
LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNSET AND NEAR FREEZING MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TO 2AM. MEANWHILE THE COMBINATION
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE LOW LEVELS AND RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT(BOTH EVIDENT ON RADAR) WILL RESULT IN A CHANGING MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN TO FREEZING TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
FREEZING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...TO SLEET AND/OR ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLUMN OF
FREEZING AIR DEEPENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW TOTAL ARE FORECAST
MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO NEAR ONE...WITH
AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU
NOON FRIDAY. STILL APPEARS IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WEST ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 40S...OTHERWISE ONLY 30S FOR
HIGHS EAST AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS. CLEARING AND COLD FRIDAY NIGHT.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yes, almost all of them had a coastal low riding up.

[Ntxw]

Is it me or was snow supposed to wait until later? Maybe I am off Ntxw...Also, was it supposed to be this widespread this early?

Not so much it's just the precip shield made it a little further north so more of it is in the colder air as to models blossoming it over Austin metro. It's still nothing unusual, we should all be patient and wait. We tend to want these things to happen instantly but it doesn't it takes time, this is all still very light stuff before optimum lift arrives.

[gpsnowman]

Fun times in Waco right now reporting 31F light snow and winds gusting 33mph

Is it me or was snow supposed to wait until later? Maybe I am off Ntxw...Also, was it supposed to be this widespread this early?

It does appear to be coming in earlier and a little bit more widespread. It is also closer to DFW than I thought it would. Could be a lot of surprises for Texans by Friday morning.

[TexasStorm]

Interesting little band of snow on the radar just south west of Mineral Wells. Go NoTx!

Be careful of false/virga radar returns. It is WAY too dry in North Texas for anything to hit the ground. Current dew point of -1 and 29% humidity in Mineral Wells. Doubt there is anything falling there.

[aggiecutter]

Fun times in Waco right now reporting 31F light snow and winds gusting 33mph

Looks like the big winners will be in a line from Lufkin,TX to Alexandria,LA. We've been having off and on snow flurry activity in the Texarkana area since this morning, nothing has accumulated.

[Tejas89]

It is also closer to DFW than I thought it would.

Looking at radar returns building to the SW, wonder if we'll get a little dusting after all. The air is extremely dry though (dewpoint is 3 above at the big airport).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Right now that line is the winner, later on i think it will be Conroe when the low starts kicking

[ROCK]

temp has falling to 43F here in Pearland due to wet bulbing....boy I hate cold rain!!

[Texas Snowman]

To Portastorm and all of our cold monger friends down south, good luck!

Here's hoping you all can get a nice winter storm in the next 24 hours - one that surprises and even over delivers!!! Not to mention one that sends our dear friend Heat Miser packing for the equator.

Snow for everyone in Bevoland and points south and east. Heck, even sneaux for our friends in Tigerland!

[ndale]

Finally starting to rain here, temp is at 36.