Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

I continue to see a major pattern change near the end of the month in the GFS, Canadian & Euro. It's bye, bye Polar vortex and hello fast zonal flow across North America - a clear signal that the severe winter across the Midwest & Northeast will be ending, along with a return to normal or above normal temps across the Southern Plains.

I'm fairly confident that the next 10 days will be your last shot at any significant snow across Texas (excluding the higher elevations in the Panhandle, of course). To get it, you'll need a little deeper shot of cold air next Sunday/Monday.

Predicted teleconnection indices support your assertion. That's good ... this lousy, promises-the-world-but-never-delivers Texas "winter" needs to be put out of its misery. Bring on spring and hopefully ample rainfall and some nice storms to follow.

[Tireman4]

Not so fast says Larry Cosgrove...


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

The frozen Great Lakes!!

[wxman57]

I've been monitoring this patch of wildflowers on the Hermann Park side of the relatively new Bill Coats bridge over Brays Bayou since last spring. There hasn't been one time when I passed this patch and didn't see at least one bluebonnet blooming since last spring. Here's a shot I took on February 7th. Most of the plants in the picture appear to be bluebonnets, but they look different than earlier this winter when most were brown and shriveled up. That one lone bloom is signaling the arrival of spring!

[aggiecutter]

Forecast from the NWS Shreveport for Texarkana on Sunday Night:

A 30 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

[Tireman4]

I've been monitoring this patch of wildflowers on the Hermann Park side of the relatively new Bill Coats bridge over Brays Bayou since last spring. There hasn't been one time when I passed this patch and didn't see at least one bluebonnet blooming since last spring. Here's a shot I took on February 7th. Most of the plants in the picture appear to be bluebonnets, but they look different than earlier this winter when most were brown and shriveled up. That one lone bloom is signaling the arrival of spring!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/bb.jpg

They can freeze and have snow on them too sir.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I can't complain too much about this winter. Granted, it wasn't near cold as I would have liked it but my area did receive two different snow falls, one being around 4" and a pretty decent ice storm.

[Texas Snowman]

No doubt, a disappointing winter for most of us. But up here in North Central Texas, I'm still hanging on to hope for a snow event through the latter half of March (which is a full month from now). We'll see how that turns out.

In the meantime, as alluded to on numerous occasions by both sides of the winter weather equation, I wouldn't trust any ideas about warmth, cold, or storms from more than a few days out.

And while I'm certainly biased, I do like the idea of Larry Cosgrove on his Facebook page: "...that (the Great Lakes freezing over) and the expanded snow cover are a reason why you should NOT embrace quick warm-up theories in March."

While I know he's most likely referring to the Midwest and New England, if they continue to stay cold for several weeks to come, I'd expect a late winter and early spring of backdoor cold fronts occasionally finding their way into portions of Texas.

If we can't have the kind of real live winter weather that we want this season, then maybe we can at least provide Wxman 57 with a spring of rainy and chilly bike riding weather.

And plenty of runoff into area lakes and rivers too.

[wxman57]

I've been monitoring this patch of wildflowers on the Hermann Park side of the relatively new Bill Coats bridge over Brays Bayou since last spring. There hasn't been one time when I passed this patch and didn't see at least one bluebonnet blooming since last spring. Here's a shot I took on February 7th. Most of the plants in the picture appear to be bluebonnets, but they look different than earlier this winter when most were brown and shriveled up. That one lone bloom is signaling the arrival of spring!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/bb.jpg

They can freeze and have snow on them too sir.

It would take a very hard freeze to kill them, and our chances of measurable snow accumulations are quite remote. Enjoy the next 10 days, winter is on its way out after then.

[Tireman4]

I've been monitoring this patch of wildflowers on the Hermann Park side of the relatively new Bill Coats bridge over Brays Bayou since last spring. There hasn't been one time when I passed this patch and didn't see at least one bluebonnet blooming since last spring. Here's a shot I took on February 7th. Most of the plants in the picture appear to be bluebonnets, but they look different than earlier this winter when most were brown and shriveled up. That one lone bloom is signaling the arrival of spring!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/bb.jpg

They can freeze and have snow on them too sir.

It would take a very hard freeze to kill them, and our chances of measurable snow accumulations are quite remote. Enjoy the next 10 days, winter is on its way out after then.

Sigh. Sigh. Well, I do think ( and you know more than I) that the frozen Great Lakes will have an effect on our thunderstorm production during April and May. I could be wrong.

[dhweather]

Predicted teleconnection indices support your assertion. That's good ... this lousy, promises-the-world-but-never-delivers Texas "winter" needs to be put out of its misery. Bring on spring and hopefully ample rainfall and some nice storms to follow.

The pattern has been miserable for ANY precipitation. I do not think we are going to get any better this Spring. The pattern will change as wxman57 noted, but I do not see anything that makes me believe we will have a wet spring. Lucy isn't just a Winter phenomena.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS looking like a broken record. Glancing blow of cold, vast majority gost east/northeast.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS looking like a broken record. Glancing blow of cold, vast majority gost east/northeast.

dhweather, I think your pessimistic attitude puts blinders on....that 12Z GFS run is extremely cold for this area. Sub 35 F high next Monday with freezing precip back in the picture, then followed by a Big Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm into the southern plains late next week. It's one of the more promising runs I've seen all winter, inside 10 days out!!

Tuesday 2/24


Friday 2/27 - Look at the -10 C line into North Texas with Precip!!

[gboudx]

Once dh posts the Lucy pic, that model run is game over.

Maybe we'll have a more normal growing season this year. I couldn't plant my garden until late April last year and the tomatoes did horrible.

[orangeblood]

Once dh posts the Lucy pic, that model run is game over.

Maybe we'll have a more normal growing season this year. I couldn't plant my garden until late April last year and the tomatoes did horrible.

Lucy is about to get her hand kicked!!!!

[orangeblood]

wxman57 - we need a 12Z GFS Meteogram please sir...at the very least for entertainment purposes!! It's got 45-55 deg F below normal late next week, yowza!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Tropicaltidbits is very slow updating the site. Looks like it says big cold again for us based on twitter.

[dhweather]

I am not buying DFW below freezing from 2/27 until 3/2, with lows as low as 8 degrees. That is not happening.

0.20" of rain in the next 10 days, that is probably close. Maybe a little high.

[orangeblood]

I am not buying DFW below freezing from 2/27 until 3/2, with lows as low as 8 degrees. That is not happening.

0.20" of rain in the next 10 days, that is probably close. Maybe a little high.

Was just perplexed by your assertion that it was a broken record run with 'glancing blows of cold air'...it's about as cold of a run as I've seen this late in the season, IMO!

[Brent]

wxman57 - we need a 12Z GFS Meteogram please sir...at the very least for entertainment purposes!! It's got 45-55 deg F below normal late next week, yowza!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_38.png

Don't worry... it's 9 days out... plenty of time to go away

[Tireman4]

wxman57 - we need a 12Z GFS Meteogram please sir...at the very least for entertainment purposes!! It's got 45-55 deg F below normal late next week, yowza!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_38.png

Ok. I will try. COLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!