Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting tweet from Joe:

@BigJoeBastardi: JAMSTEC WITH MAJOR AMO CLIMATE BOMB! continues cold AMO AND destroys WATL warm pool PAC SST argues cold 15-16 winter! http://t.co/80ZfupY2p9/s/-haj

[ronyan]

12z GFS 2m temp data shows lows of 13F and 8F for days 9 & 10 at DFW. IAH reaches 18F @ +240hrs.

[Texas Snowman]

I am not buying DFW below freezing from 2/27 until 3/2, with lows as low as 8 degrees. That is not happening.

0.20" of rain in the next 10 days, that is probably close. Maybe a little high.

Not happening? You may not be buying it and maybe it won't happen, but that's not to say that it can't happen.

For instance, early March 2014? It was in the middle teens here in the middle of the day with heavy tundersleet in Denison.

[TexasStorm]

12z run seems to be out to lunch lately. It shows crazy swings in temp and precip then next run says nope.

[Texas Snowman]

I am not buying DFW below freezing from 2/27 until 3/2, with lows as low as 8 degrees. That is not happening.

0.20" of rain in the next 10 days, that is probably close. Maybe a little high.

Was just perplexed by your assertion that it was a broken record run with 'glancing blows of cold air'...it's about as cold of a run as I've seen this late in the season, IMO!

Look, the last several weeks may have been disappointing for the southern plains in terms of cold air and snow delivery. But what has gone on in other parts of the country from these cold air masses and storms is downright historic. It shows that the opportunity for extreme weather is there.

Nearly 100" of snow in Boston inside of a month for instance? And it's been impressively cold in the Midwest and in New England - saw a while ago where NWS Boston tweeted this morning that a couple of cities in their forecast area are experiencing their coldest February's on record.

So while Wxman 57 is trumpeting the end of winter again - and who knows, perhaps he's right - I'm still in a wait and see mode to see if we can get something south of the Red River in the next four weeks.

As I've mentioned before, March has been a REALLY good month in the Red River counties over the last decade as far as winter weather is concerned.

[TexasStorm]

Boston thinks they have problems now, wait until that 100in of snow melts.

[Brent]

Boston thinks they have problems now, wait until that 100in of snow melts.

It actually might be heavy rain on Sunday Night... will be interesting.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, im headed to Mexico next Wednesday. Yall have fun with the dreary 40's and rain!

[Brent]

Well, im headed to Mexico next Wednesday. Yall have fun with the dreary 40's and rain!

We ought to be used to it by now...

[Portastorm]

Interesting tweet from Joe:

@BigJoeBastardi: JAMSTEC WITH MAJOR AMO CLIMATE BOMB! continues cold AMO AND destroys WATL warm pool PAC SST argues cold 15-16 winter! http://t.co/80ZfupY2p9/s/-haj

Oh great ... now it's ONLY NINE MONTHS OUT!

[wxman57]

Looks like the last of the Arctic air drains out of Canada late next week. Nice warm-up to follow in March, though. Remember that the low in Dallas-Ft. Worth was predicted to be in the mid teens tomorrow from 10 days out. Not going to happen. Will it happen NEXT time, though?

[wxman57]

These GFS maps for this coming Saturday and March 5th look much more pleasant for Texas:

[dhweather]

I am not buying DFW below freezing from 2/27 until 3/2, with lows as low as 8 degrees. That is not happening.

0.20" of rain in the next 10 days, that is probably close. Maybe a little high.

Was just perplexed by your assertion that it was a broken record run with 'glancing blows of cold air'...it's about as cold of a run as I've seen this late in the season, IMO!

I should have qualified it as "thus far" - when I looked at that point, it only went out 138 hours.

8 degrees is just two weeks out!

[Texas Snowman]

I like the long-range pattern in the GFS. After a cold start to February (maybe a freeze here in Houston the first week of the month), things heat up over Canada and the Plains.

Remember this observation back on 1/27?

I'll admit, Texas - even North Texas - is in the 4th quarter for sure and perhaps we'll end up with nothing substantial to show for this winter season (outside of the November cold, the Panhandle snowstorm and the winter weather around Burkburnett).

But just the same, if you don't mind, I'll take your idea of winter being over with a grain of salt. Kind of like I did a few weeks ago when you peered into the models and their crystal ball for February.

BTW, I noticed it made it down to 33 this morning in Houston. My kind of heat wave for the Plains.

[wxman57]

The 12Z European has mid to upper 20s in the D-FW area on the 28th (vs. 8-9 with the GFS) and mid 30s in Houston.

[Texas Snowman]

The 12Z European has mid to upper 20s in the D-FW area on the 28th (vs. 8-9 with the GFS) and mid 30s in Houston.

But kind sir, you LIKED the GFS model runs just three weeks ago!

So is King Euro right this time? Or is the crazy GFS on to something? Time will tell.

[wxman57]

Based on past experiences this winter, I'd tend to NOT believe the 12Z GFS temps at day 10.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS for 2/28 6AM at my house:

Surface temp 2F and DP -3F and near calm winds
850mb temp of 11F and DP of -38F

That is close to an amazing hoarfrost event.

Doubt it gets anywhere close to that, but you can add 20F and it will still be one of the coldest late winter temps on record.

[Brent]

Not that I don't believe it's way overdoing cold but why is it to be ignored now but the warmth at day 16 is to be posted like its guaranteed to happen?

[Texas Snowman]

Not that I don't believe it's way overdoing cold but why is it to be ignored now but the warmth at day 16 is to be posted like its guaranteed to happen?

Because the Heat Miser said so, that's why!!!

He may be right, he often is (maybe even usually).

But then again, the models haven't exactly been spot on in my back yard in recent weeks in terms of the cold that we've had. Nothing extreme, but below what was forecast on a few occasions. All I know is that I'm still burning through the stack of firewood outside my house. And with four weeks to go before the latest snow date we've had here in recent years, I'm not buying sun tan lotion just yet.