Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

FW office afternoon update. Highs in the 20's late next week. It will need to get colder than that for any comparison to '83.

It's beyond 7 days, they have to consider climo when putting out forecasts. You can't really compare dates yet as those are truly bar standards. However the raw model outputs are much much colder than 20s. Last night's GFS had 10 for highs. Unbelievable.

[Portastorm]

And rightfully so ... us weather weenies on Storm2K can get as excited as we want because we don't issue forecasts (of course I'm not talking about our pro met members). The real pros must approach with caution and some sense about these things. If needed, they can taper down the numbers the closer we get to next week.

As compelling as the models have been to date as well as the teleconnections, it's no guarantee that we'll see pipe-busting cold next week. We all know how Lucy can yank that football at the last second!

[orangeblood]

FW office afternoon update. Highs in the 20's late next week. It will need to get colder than that for any comparison to '83.

BEYOND DAY 7...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE US NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUILD 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 580DM OVER THIS REGION BY
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING
EXTREMELY COLD AIR TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE 1069MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ITS
00Z RUN AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A 1063MB HIGH.
THE FIRST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AT THAT TIME. WHAT MAKES THIS SETUP SO CONCERNING IS NOT SIMPLY
THE MODEL OUTPUT BUT RATHER THE IMPACT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER ALASKA WOULD HAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTREMELY COLD AND DENSE AIR
OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF INDICATES HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 20S BY WED/THU WHICH IS VERY CONCERNING. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BEGIN TO
HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS PIPES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

I think their point was that ECMWF model output forecasting temps that cold this far out is the most concerning part of all of this. With a forecasted high pressure in the upper 1060's over Western Canada moving south, the temps are more than likely going to be much colder than that.

[Kelarie]

From SHREVEPORT LA NWS

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE FORECAST IS JUST BEYOND THE NEXT
7 DAYS AND THAT COMES IN THE FORM OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY. THE SETUP IS A DEEP UPPER VORTEX ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WHICH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS POLAR VORTEX IS ALLOWED TO DIG INTO THE PLAINS BY
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 570-580 DAM
AT 500MB ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
ALASKA. MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWING A 1064MB HIGH
LOCKED UP ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA BEFORE SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FRIGID AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE OR TUESDAY (JANUARY 11TH). WHILE
TIMING IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM WITH AIRMASSES SUCH AS THESE...THIS
AIRMASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST BY FAR EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THIS REGION THIS WINTER SEASON.

[Ntxw]

JB seems to think that the Texas agriculture industry (deep south Texas) should pay close attention, more so than Florida this go round.

[Tejas89]

If nothing else, this is something to look forward to the next few days. Been a boooring winter so far. If models hold together, the media blitz on Dallas TV starting this weekend will be epic. Thanks for all the links and maps everyone.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB seems to think that the Texas agriculture industry (deep south Texas) should pay close attention, more so than Florida this go round.

I saw that and agree. The fact that NWS Brownsville is so ho hum (not even mentioning it) is concerning, but not surprising. The Old Timers at that office would have been on this pattern like white on rice right now.

It's not only citrus that needs to take notice if this comes to fruation. Alot of nursery people who supply the state with drought resistant plants, etc will take a hit too.

[iorange55]

The gfs 18z looks a little strange, but it is the 18z afterall and this is a lot of cold for the models to handle.

[Ntxw]

The gfs 18z looks a little strange, but it is the 18z afterall and this is a lot of cold for the models to handle.

Temps are going to vary. Key here is that the GFS depicts a 1060h which continues the trend of stronger HP on the GFS runs. From my interpretations, even if there is no BIG storm (there usually is with such dramatic swings in temp), the air looks so cold it squeezes out whatever is left post frontal for some fun on and off. Of course all speculation.

[Snowman67]

The gfs 18z looks a little strange, but it is the 18z afterall and this is a lot of cold for the models to handle.

Yes, it really backed off the cold air as compared to the 12z run. However it is just one run on the off hour. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show as well as the 00z.

[iorange55]

The gfs 18z looks a little strange, but it is the 18z afterall and this is a lot of cold for the models to handle.

Temps are going to vary. Key here is that the GFS depicts a 1060h which continues the trend of stronger HP on the GFS runs.

Yeah just taking notice how it's showing more of a quick blow it seems. Lonnnnnng ways out though. What we'll see next week will be very interesting.

[ludosc]

accuweather is really getting on board with this...temps on the 17th in Fort Worth...

High- 65
Low- 37

[txagwxman]

I don't think it will compare to Dec 1983, but Dallas could see low to mid teens next week if everything lines up---and I mean everything.

18z is a puzzle.

[HockeyTx82]

What is the 18z showing? I just looked and what happened? It looks like it all feel apart...... Was that whoosh I heard a few minutes ago the confidence leaving the board? My mom just said that the Ch 8 Met here in DFW (Steve McCauley) said there are talks all over the internet about next week and he has been getting emails regarding it. I am thinking of staying away from the weather sites and TV forecasts for a few days and comig back in later to see what's goin on. I can't take this

[CaptinCrunch]

well this D/FW record will not be broken, at least not per the lastest model runs.

Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Most consecutive hours at or below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)

For good measure heres the last time D/FW saw 0 degrees or below.

-1 on Dec 23, 1989... Clear.... no precip...

[Texas Snowman]

My advice is to not get obsessed with "model wobbles" on this.

The pattern change has been clear for some time (several on this board have been beating the pattern change tom-tom for two or three weeks now).

The models have been very consistent on this arctic outbreak for some time.

The atmospheric signals/teleconnections have been consistent in suggesting this.

The way that weather pros and NWS offices - even some of the latter who are EXTREMELY reluctant to do so - have jumped on this is also amazing.

The trend is clearly for a big cold push of air next week, perhaps one that will last for several days and could even be severe if not historic.

[Texas Snowman]

Also, if memory serves correct, the record breaking snowstorm that hit Dallas/Fort Worth last February was well advertised in the models for a number of days. Then it mysteriously weakened or even disappeared if memory serves correct. Before coming back. And then dumping a foot of snow on the Metroplex.

Again, my advice is to avoid "model wobble watching."

As someone has opined here before, the "trend is the friend."

[Texas Snowman]

well this D/FW record will not be broken, at least not per the lastest model runs.

Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Most consecutive hours at or below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)

For good measure heres the last time D/FW saw 0 degrees or below.

-1 on Dec 23, 1989... Clear.... no precip...

First one, probably right. I mean that is the ALL-TIME sub-freezing streak here in North Texas (I remember it well, was a senior in high school).

The second one, well, if we get anything even close to a 1070-mb high, that one could go down. And if there is any snowpack around locally or just to the north, it could go down in a big way.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, if memory serves correct, the record breaking snowstorm that hit Dallas/Fort Worth last February was well advertised in the models for a number of days. Then it mysteriously weakened or even disappeared if memory serves correct. Before coming back. And then dumping a foot of snow on the Metroplex.

Again, my advice is to avoid "model wobble watching."

As someone has opined here before, the "trend is the friend."

Very true, i seem to notice the models go off a bit at the 3 day mark and the 7 day mark before returning back to its trend

[TwisterFanatic]

Some of you guys taking the 18z as gospel.