Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

What do y'all think the chances this ends up a bit further east? A due north track of the low does not match climatology, but there are always outliers and this may be one. I would bet on a further east track which could bring snow closer to I-35 north of I-10.

I'm not really hopeful but I mean I guess anything is possible but why is it going north? Is DFW just that cursed? Setup after setup nothing ever changes its always a cold rain

[cheezyWXguy]

Next round of interesting weather looks like it’s about 264hr out on the 12z gfs. Strong storm system that’s been showing up for the last 3 runs. Will be interesting to see if it continues to show up, as a system that strong is likely to be either a severe weather or winter weather threat. Long way out...

[TheProfessor]

The theme this year has been northwest trends. One just happened on Christmas Eve that gave Columbus a nice snow event they weren't expecting. I had a feeling we'd see storms cut west more this year. That's more common during La Nina.

[wxman57]

What do y'all think the chances this ends up a bit further east? A due north track of the low does not match climatology, but there are always outliers and this may be one. I would bet on a further east track which could bring snow closer to I-35 north of I-10.

I'm not really hopeful but I mean I guess anything is possible but why is it going north? Is DFW just that cursed? Setup after setup nothing ever changes its always a cold rain

The air in advance of the storm center is just not cold enough for frozen precip in the D-FW area. By the time the air is cold enough, the precip has ended. That's what generally happens down here in Houston.

I haven't been around much lately because I had my shoulder surgery on the 16th (same arm as wrist break). Surgery went great. Was up on a ladder taking down Christmas decorations on Friday, just 9 days post-surgery. No pain at all. However, I had a bad reaction to a second shingles vaccine over the weekend. Pain worse than either surgery kept me from sleeping. Had 100+ fever, chills, a rash, etc. the day after the shot. Saw doctor yesterday to check on my shoulder and he put me on a series of pills to counter the reaction. Pain dropped from 5-6 to 1-2 today. Much improvement very quickly. I may be able to hit the bike in another week. Right arm is very weak now, though. That may keep me from reinforcing that Canadian wall this winter.

[bubba hotep]

What do y'all think the chances this ends up a bit further east? A due north track of the low does not match climatology, but there are always outliers and this may be one. I would bet on a further east track which could bring snow closer to I-35 north of I-10.

I'm not really hopeful but I mean I guess anything is possible but why is it going north? Is DFW just that cursed? Setup after setup nothing ever changes its always a cold rain

The air in advance of the storm center is just not cold enough for frozen precip in the D-FW area. By the time the air is cold enough, the precip has ended. That's what generally happens down here in Houston.

I haven't been around much lately because I had my shoulder surgery on the 16th (same arm as wrist break). Surgery went great. Was up on a ladder taking down Christmas decorations on Friday, just 9 days post-surgery. No pain at all. However, I had a bad reaction to a second shingles vaccine over the weekend. Pain worse than either surgery kept me from sleeping. Had 100+ fever, chills, a rash, etc. the day after the shot. Saw doctor yesterday to check on my shoulder and he put me on a series of pills to counter the reaction. Pain dropped from 5-6 to 1-2 today. Much improvement very quickly. I may be able to hit the bike in another week. Right arm is very weak now, though. That may keep me from reinforcing that Canadian wall this winter.

I knew there was some reason I kept seeing increasing signs of a back loaded winter! Get well. I'm sure will have some WCAB action by May lol

[Cpv17]

Has anyone noticed how strong those high pressures are near China and Russia? Insane

[Cerlin]

What do y'all think the chances this ends up a bit further east? A due north track of the low does not match climatology, but there are always outliers and this may be one. I would bet on a further east track which could bring snow closer to I-35 north of I-10.

I'm not really hopeful but I mean I guess anything is possible but why is it going north? Is DFW just that cursed? Setup after setup nothing ever changes its always a cold rain

The air in advance of the storm center is just not cold enough for frozen precip in the D-FW area. By the time the air is cold enough, the precip has ended. That's what generally happens down here in Houston.

I haven't been around much lately because I had my shoulder surgery on the 16th (same arm as wrist break). Surgery went great. Was up on a ladder taking down Christmas decorations on Friday, just 9 days post-surgery. No pain at all. However, I had a bad reaction to a second shingles vaccine over the weekend. Pain worse than either surgery kept me from sleeping. Had 100+ fever, chills, a rash, etc. the day after the shot. Saw doctor yesterday to check on my shoulder and he put me on a series of pills to counter the reaction. Pain dropped from 5-6 to 1-2 today. Much improvement very quickly. I may be able to hit the bike in another week. Right arm is very weak now, though. That may keep me from reinforcing that Canadian wall this winter.

Super glad to hear everything went well with the surgery!! I hope you continue to improve after the shot as well! I was missing the ol heat miser around here to ground myself in reality!

[starsfan65]

I ain't giving up hope!!

[bubba hotep]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1343822175892074496

Fantastic read. Must follow.

It's been pointed out on here a few times that the transition to Fall/Winter was taking an unusual route and not very nina like. It continues to be strange to view the teleconnections and see the AO/NAO flatlining negative but no real cold around. In the 3 years that HM highlighted, 2 of the 3 were multi inch snow years at DFW and the cold significantly lagged the SSW. Winter 05/06 was a straight up train wreck but '60 & '04 saw pretty decent long term impacts when you look at the 45 & 60 day lags. That points to late January through March being legit for Texas. The GEFS is probably rushing things but it is showing signs of the NPO shifting towards a more favorable setup for us down here in Texas by mid-month. There also continue to be signals for normal to above normal precipitation across Texas. Just add cold lol

[gpsnowman]

Has anyone noticed how strong those high pressures are near China and Russia? Insane

Yes and the one over Mongolia is monster. Mongolians have all the fun.
On a different note, the new 30 year averages get started in 3 days. Say goodbye to the 1980's and hello to the 2010's. Without looking at the numbers I expect increases in the daily averages. Currently the peak summer averages are 77-97 and winter is 36-56. These should go up considering how hot is has been over the last decade plus. Especially the low temps in the warmer months. We can go weeks without dropping below 80 in the summer time. We shall see. On the flip side, it should be easier to have below normal readings for the next 10 years.

[Brent]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1343822175892074496

Fantastic read. Must follow.

It's been pointed out on here a few times that the transition to Fall/Winter was taking an unusual route and not very nina like. It continues to be strange to view the teleconnections and see the AO/NAO flatlining negative but no real cold around. In the 3 years that HM highlighted, 2 of the 3 were multi inch snow years at DFW and the cold significantly lagged the SSW. Winter 05/06 was a straight up train wreck but '60 & '04 saw pretty decent long term impacts when you look at the 45 & 60 day lags. That points to late January through March being legit for Texas. The GEFS is probably rushing things but it is showing signs of the NPO shifting towards a more favorable setup for us down here in Texas by mid-month. There also continue to be signals for normal to above normal precipitation across Texas. Just add cold lol

The 12z gfs had 30 inches of snow in Oklahoma City and zero for DFW 3 hours up the road

[Ralph's Weather]

Most models track the upper low right over DFW tomorrow evening. The HRRR is furthest west bringing over a foot to Midland and hooking the band north into NW TX. The WRF and Canadian suites are furthest east with the upper low tracking east of DFW and the surface low hanging south for longer which brings the I-35W corridor into play for a significant mix of precip types. Most models are in between keeping the heaviest snow SE of Midland and tracking the heavy band towards Wichita Falls.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models trending east this morning with the winter precip. Sure looks like the I-35 corridor is in play for winter mix at least with some very light mixing possible east of DFW before daybreak Friday morning. Temps will generally be above freezing for DFW and east so significant impacts are unlikely.

[DonWrk]

Models trending east this morning with the winter precip. Sure looks like the I-35 corridor is in play for winter mix at least with some very light mixing possible east of DFW before daybreak Friday morning. Temps will generally be above freezing for DFW and east so significant impacts are unlikely.

Been watching...most models sure haven’t made me write this one off yet. Very little action on the board for optimism!

[TarrantWx]

The Canadian offers a little bit of hope for those on the West side of the metroplex. I'm not holding my breath though.

[Brent]

Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one

[EnnisTx]

Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one

All it takes is 30 or 40 miles further East and you won't need to. Hell, my luck would be to drive all the way out there and it would shift and hammer the Metroplex.

[Brent]

Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one

All it takes is 30 or 40 miles further East and you won't need to. Hell, my luck would be to drive all the way out there and it would shift and hammer the Metroplex.

true and i'd love for it to happen here but I'm not holding my breath or deciding til tomorrow

[EnnisTx]

Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one

All it takes is 30 or 40 miles further East and you won't need to. Hell, my luck would be to drive all the way out there and it would shift and hammer the Metroplex.

true and i'd love for it to happen here but I'm not holding my breath or deciding til tomorrow

Would definitely be nice to see it here. I just bought some retirement property out in Tuscola Southwest of Abilene. Can't wait to get out that way so that I have a real shot at winter weather in the future.

[Brent]

All it takes is 30 or 40 miles further East and you won't need to. Hell, my luck would be to drive all the way out there and it would shift and hammer the Metroplex.

true and i'd love for it to happen here but I'm not holding my breath or deciding til tomorrow

Would definitely be nice to see it here. I just bought some retirement property out in Tuscola Southwest of Abilene. Can't wait to get out that way so that I have a real shot at winter weather in the future.

awesome

their elevation is so much better than ours that explains a lot about these setups always being west