Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems as though the Euro really had this thing nailed as far as position of the low (farther south) and the resultant colder temps/higher snowfall totals on the eastern portion of the event area. Been consistent for multiple days now.

[Steve]

Anyone have the 06z Euro?

No. I saw the operational run but not the snowfall total yet. I’m sure it’s out there

[3090]

Damn. 8” would be crazy. That’s flirting with the all time record of 8.2 in 1895 but that was over 2 days.

1. 8.2” - 1895 (2 days)
2. 5.0” - 1881 (2 days)
3. 4.5” - 1963
4. 4.0” - 1853
5. 3.0” - 1899

I talked to my Grandma yesterday who lives on Pensacola Beach and she said it wouldn't snow there because of the salt air but we will see it in the city. She might be in the bullseye

Salt air has ZERO to do with it. Talk to the people that live up along the northeast coast of the US.

[MississippiWx]

This sucks for us. I’m 60 miles from the Coast, and I’m too far north. We will be lucky to get an inch now. May have to drive to the coast, but not sure if the roads will be very safe.

[Ivanhater]

Damn. 8” would be crazy. That’s flirting with the all time record of 8.2 in 1895 but that was over 2 days.

1. 8.2” - 1895 (2 days)
2. 5.0” - 1881 (2 days)
3. 4.5” - 1963
4. 4.0” - 1853
5. 3.0” - 1899

I talked to my Grandma yesterday who lives on Pensacola Beach and she said it wouldn't snow there because of the salt air but we will see it in the city. She might be in the bullseye

Salt air has ZERO to do with it. Talk to the people that live up along the northeast coast of the US.

Oh I know. Just thought it was funny and the models showing the beach in the bullseye :ggreen

[Ivanhater]

This sucks for us. I’m 60 miles from the Coast, and I’m too far north. We will be lucky to get an inch now. May have to drive to the coast, but not sure if the roads will be very safe.

Yeah, coastal counties look like ground zero. Models are showing a strengthening band across the Florida panhandle now.

We are 24 hours out now so I hope the models are starting to lock in

[bella_may]

Latest HRRR is suppressed a bit. Hopefully not a trend

[wxweenie4life]

When is the low supposed to develop? I thought it was this morning but didn’t see much out there when I just looked (so I’m assuming I thought wrong..haha).

[Steve]

When is the low supposed to develop? I thought it was this morning but didn’t see much out there when I just looked (so I’m assuming I thought wrong..haha).

It’s at the surface and coming together. Upper flow is still out of the WSW and may stay that way with overrunning feed. But I haven’t followed the upper patterns.

[Steve]

12z mesoscales are running now. FV3 is out to tomorrow morning. Still got a bunch of snow in SETX and SWLA. 28 hours in, and it is heaviest NW of Houston and S of Lake Charles so far.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Steve]

Abbeville with the most through 30 hours.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Houma and Thibodaux out to 32 with 6+”. Seems to show bursting lines out front
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[bella_may]

12Z NAM looks heavier/more north!

[Ivanhater]

12 z Nam ticked north with heavy totals...Mobile jumps from 3 to 7 inches

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[Ivanhater]

12 z Nam ticked north with heavy totals...Mobile jumps from 3 to 7 inches

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[Steve]

HRRR with 9.4” in New Orleans
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

FV3 with mostly 1-3” east of New Orleans with a burst in Okaloosa and Walton Counties
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[BigB0882]

Ok, I’m locking in that NAM! 9.5 inches directly over my house. Lock it in, lock it in.

But seriously, BTR is just on the edge on all of these runs. We can’t afford any moderate to large wobbles. Today is going to be a long day.

TWC has lowered our chances of precip to 80%.

[FLpanhandle91]

I have no idea how CAMs do with winter weather. Never had to worry about it. Lol.

[Steve]

I have no idea how CAMs do with winter weather. Never had to worry about it. Lol.

Be sure to share some photos or video if you can.

[Ivanhater]

WRF is coming in heavy

[Ivanhater]

12 z wrf

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