Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Rieyeuxs]

Air Force Met Wrote:

The high that is forecast over AK and Siberia later in the period is just massive (at 500mb)...one of the largest I have ever seen. If that verifies...watch out...all of that Siberian air will dump into the lower 48...most will still go east but we will get a share.

What we in Texas are missing is the BIG high sinking south. The problem with forecasting that is...well...it's really hard to forecast that sort of high pressure to form that far out. The model is putting out a large area of higher pressure...but it's certain it won't look like that at the sfc. Cold Core sfc highs are tough to forecast when they haven't formed yet...especially the big ones...1050+.

Question. From what I can tell, that means the Deep South will get cold, but not wet. Would that deep, strong of a high prevent moisture from hitting us over in Alabama? I notice AFM keeps pointing east, and no offense, but I'm the one sitting east of him!

[Tyler]

0z GFS shows next week to be quite cool...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

0z GFS shows next week to be quite cool...

And the week of the 12th it takes the very cold air into Northern Mexico.

[Tyler]

0z GFS shows next week to be quite cool...

And the week of the 12th it takes the very cold air into Northern Mexico.

???? Northern Mexico? I think you mean Canada maybe?

Anyway, the GFS after 180 hours (after the model truncates) is whack anyway, the PNA is not going to just break down like that (after becoming so strong), and the cold air in the east is not going to lift out that quickly. Right after the model truncates at hour 180, everything does not look right at all.

This is the first GFS run in a long time to show that PNA ridge crumbling like that, so I would take it with a grain of salt. Whats important to note is sometime next week (toward the weekend), there could be a major intrusion of arctic air.

At any rate, I'm just glad we now know this dramatic pattern change is coming for sure, I look foward to weeks of much cooler weather!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yea I meant Canada. Ooops.

[Tyler]

Anyway, the 0z EURO says the GFS is crap at day 10. Instead of eroding the ridge, the EURO keeps it strong and builds it further into Alaska. I think the GFS made a mistake after hour 180, I bet it fixes itself at 12z.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/060202073944.gif

[Tyler]

AFD's around the area are now starting to talk about the arctic air next week.

Dallas NWS:
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY AND STORM
TRACK MOVES FARTHER NORTH. THIS MAKES US A DRIER AGAIN AND ONLY
AREAS OF POSSIBLE PRECIP ARE IN THE NORTHEAST...ON FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. THESE ARE STILL LOW POP EVENTS AND MOST
PRECIP WILL STAY IN OK/AR/LA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WE GET INTO SOME PRETTY
GOOD NORTH FLOW AND WE MAY HAVE SOME WINTRY AIR SPILLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY THE 9TH OR
FRIDAY THE 10TH. DON/T PLANT THOSE TOMATOES JUST YET... 84

Austin/San Antonio NWS:
A SHARP UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND THEREFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES STRONGLY
MERIDIONAL...WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC
AIR BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.


I think Dallas said it the best, don't plant those tomatoes just yet!

[Tyler]

6z GFS makes much more sense in the extended after 180 hours, and is back to how all the previous GFS runs looked. The PNA ridge digs into Alaska, like the Euro, instead of eroding away, and the cold is on. Don't know about that massive arctic outbreak it shows, but at least it makes more sense.

[WaitingForSiren]

Ive been agreeing with this arctic deal ever since you guys mentioned it, but I dont think it'll be record breaking or anything, not in Minnesota at least. Our record lows are just amazingly low. But yeah, Im glad this is coming just for the simple fact that it will shut everybody up that has been saying "global warming this" and "global warming that" =)

[Portastorm]

Anyway, the 0z EURO says the GFS is crap at day 10. Instead of eroding the ridge, the EURO keeps it strong and builds it further into Alaska. I think the GFS made a mistake after hour 180, I bet it fixes itself at 12z.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/060202073944.gif

Tyler, I think you are "dead on" here. The GFS is notorious for its transient nature of arctic airmasses, quickly moving them east after a day or so. We all know the real weather doesn't operate that way. Or maybe I should say seldom does it operate that way.

Secondly, I know I have read that the GFS struggles sometimes in patterns like this where we're on the cusp of a major pattern shift.

The European and the Canadian medium range have been more consistent in the last 48 hours and they suggest a step-down for us in the southern Plains into very cold temps by next weekend.

I might also add that the Euro and Canadian support AFM's posts yesterday on how he thinks this will all shake down. Smart money says go with the S2K Fly Boy!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

In other news, Extremeweather guy saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter for Texas.

[Kelarie]

In other news, Extremeweather guy saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter for Texas.

[Air Force Met]

Anyway, the 0z EURO says the GFS is crap at day 10. Instead of eroding the ridge, the EURO keeps it strong and builds it further into Alaska. I think the GFS made a mistake after hour 180, I bet it fixes itself at 12z.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/060202073944.gif

It will likely take a run or two to work out the bad stuff if it's an error.

[Portastorm]

In other news, Extremeweather guy saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter for Texas.

Dude .... you're on a roll!

[gboudx]

I think Dallas said it the best, don't plant those tomatoes just yet!

I hope we get a nice heavy frost to kill off the grass. From what I'm seeing, it'll get cold, but chances for precip won't be great. Well that sucks. If it's gonna be cold, might as well have some snow and/or sleet. Otherwise, it's just cold and miserable outside. Better enjoy this weekend outdoors.

[jasons2k]

Oh dear, NWS in Austin/SAT used the "M" word.

[Portastorm]

Oh dear, NWS in Austin/SAT used the "M" word.

As a regular daily reader of the forecast discussions that come out of NWS Austin/San Antonio, I find myself torn. On one hand, I give them and DFW kudos for mentioning next week and giving folks a potential "heads up." On the other hand, their track record in getting a handle on winter weather isn't too good over the years.

I'm like most of y'all in that if it's going to get cold (really cold), I'd like some winter precip to make it fun. We could also use the moisture.

[southerngale]

In other news, Extremeweather guy saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter for Texas.

Speaking of an extreme weather guy, if you missed this posted by senorpepr in Off Topic, ya gotta watch it!

http://www.fox19.com/global/video/popup ... &h1%20%253

Btw, I have Firefox and had to open it in my IE tab.




It came from this thread in OT: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=80970

[Brent]

In other news, Extremeweather guy saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter for Texas.

[gboudx]

Oh dear, NWS in Austin/SAT used the "M" word.

I've heard of the "s" word, but what's the "m" word?

While I'm asking questions, how will the lack of appreciable snowpack affect this arctic air on it's way down? Or do you think the snowpack will build with each successive re-enforcing shot and make this point moot?