Texas Winter 2018-2019

[CaptinCrunch]

New GFS is still the ice champion for Texas, with an ice storm in every run over the past month or more:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013106/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Anything beyond 72 hrs is fantacy land for now on.....

[wxman57]

New GFS is still the ice champion for Texas, with an ice storm in every run over the past month or more:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013106/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Anything beyond 72 hrs is fantacy land for now on.....

That still may be too far out. EC for next week has a much weaker high dropping south. Only mid 20s up in the D-FW area next Friday with mid 30s in Houston. No ice.

[dhweather]

New GFS is still the ice champion for Texas, with an ice storm in every run over the past month or more:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013106/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Anything beyond 72 hrs is fantacy land for now on.....

Ask the folks in Mississippi and Alabama - they will tell you > 1 hour is fantasy land.

[dhweather]

LOL, this thread parallels college fan bases during recruiting season...

"17 year old X committed to my favorite school! What an upstanding young man and hard worker"
**17 year old X decommits.
***"That kid is a prick and his parents are horrible parents. Does commitment mean anything?"


GFS shows lots of snow. "It's going to happen, you know because GFS has a slightly better score than the Euro this year."
GFS loses it and Euro picks it up. "Well the Euro historically is much better. The GFS is full of poop."
Euro loses it and the Canadian is the only one left showing "Euro and GFS are off its meds. This 2 star Canadian model is going to nail it this time"

This is beautiful.

[dhweather]

How can an “upgrade” be so bad? It’s awful. Europe can figure it out. Why not us?

It's really more than just an upgrade - it's a complete rewrite of the model, which is a good thing. The GFS code is over 30 years old and does not scale well to take advantage of faster computers with better technologies. There will be growing pains, I'm sure, but long term, this will be a very good thing. FV3-GFS version 2.0 should be a marked improvement.

[HockeyTx82]

Liking our chances next week. In other news my phone took an update. I now have 5Ge so I can consume Storm2k much faster while on the go. Galaxy S8 on ATT, anyone else seeing this? Only certain cities are getting it right now. Not true 5g but better then 4g. Should help with data in the field in terms of uploading and downloading. This could be very helpful for getting real time information, data and videos from and to storm chasers. Lots of potential.

[Haris]

3...2...1

Storm 2k explodes

[dhweather]

Hey, it's only 180 hours out this time.

[HockeyTx82]

https://video.foxnews.com/v/59968811000 ... show-clips

[hriverajr]

Liking our chances next week. In other news my phone took an update. I now have 5Ge so I can consume Storm2k much faster while on the go. Galaxy S8 on ATT, anyone else seeing this? Only certain cities are getting it right now. Not true 5g but better then 4g. Should help with data in the field in terms of uploading and downloading. This could be very helpful for getting real time information, data and videos from and to storm chasers. Lots of potential.

I read up on that... maybe a little bit faster in some areas, but is basically a marketing ploy it seems..

[bubba hotep]

3...2...1

Storm 2k explodes

Knew this would be an interesting run when higher heights started pushing into Alaska around 120hrs. Hard to ignore the signal but models have been all over the place, maybe today is the day they lock in? Probably not lol

[hriverajr]

The pattern upcoming is a bit better for Texas Winter Storms. The previous pattern, (me having lived in Texas all my life) well it was basically impossible to get any significant winter weather in the vast majority of Texas. I am still very skeptical overall.

[orangeblood]

3...2...1

Storm 2k explodes

Knew this would be an interesting run when higher heights started pushing into Alaska around 120hrs. Hard to ignore the signal but models have been all over the place, maybe today is the day they lock in? Probably not lol

And it's only just the beginning, numerous signals points towards system after system diving right into our wheelhouse!!!

[HockeyTx82]

Liking our chances next week. In other news my phone took an update. I now have 5Ge so I can consume Storm2k much faster while on the go. Galaxy S8 on ATT, anyone else seeing this? Only certain cities are getting it right now. Not true 5g but better then 4g. Should help with data in the field in terms of uploading and downloading. This could be very helpful for getting real time information, data and videos from and to storm chasers. Lots of potential.

I read up on that... maybe a little bit faster in some areas, but is basically a marketing ploy it seems..

I've heard that too, it's funny because if I go 10 miles west of Denton, Ponder where I live, back on 4g. Baby steps but hey anything is better then no progress. I just hope they don't start jacking up monthly plan prices.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

New GFS is still the ice champion for Texas, with an ice storm in every run over the past month or more:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013106/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Anything beyond 72 hrs is fantacy land for now on.....

Ask the folks in Mississippi and Alabama - they will tell you > 1 hour is fantasy land.

Same for us here in south LA. Lost track of how many runs were showing snow for most parts of LA at some point and nobody saw more than a few flakes mixed in max. Euro has been horrible, it had numerous runs day after day showing south LA getting snow. No words for the new gfs besides atrocious. We would be buried if that were to be believed. Worse then the Canadian and nam combined.

[South Texas Storms]

3...2...1

Storm 2k explodes

I like the 12z model trends so far today. 12z GFS and Canadian both show a winter storm risk across central TX during the second half of next week, along with the 6z FV3-GFS. Let's see what the 12z Euro shows in a few hours.

[dhweather]

Liking our chances next week. In other news my phone took an update. I now have 5Ge so I can consume Storm2k much faster while on the go. Galaxy S8 on ATT, anyone else seeing this? Only certain cities are getting it right now. Not true 5g but better then 4g. Should help with data in the field in terms of uploading and downloading. This could be very helpful for getting real time information, data and videos from and to storm chasers. Lots of potential.

I read up on that... maybe a little bit faster in some areas, but is basically a marketing ploy it seems..

That's fact, just like when 3G was upgraded to 4G, but was just 3G with HSDPA - High Speed Downlink Packet Access. The "real" 4G got named LTE - Long Term Evolution.

Download speeds:

3G - 3.1 mb/sec
4G - 14 mb/sec
4G LTE - 299.6 mb/sec
5Ge - 400 mb/sec
5G - 1400 mb/sec

It will likely be 2020 before you really start seeing real 5G.

[srainhoutx]

I hate ice. Still not completely right after falling last January after the sleet storm...

[mcheer23]

3...2...1

Storm 2k explodes

I like the 12z model trends so far today. 12z GFS and Canadian both show a winter storm risk across central TX during the second half of next week, along with the 6z FV3-GFS. Let's see what the 12z Euro shows in a few hours.

If only we can get it to SE Texas.

[Ntxw]

The models with something is featuring moisture coming from a strong subtropical jet. May want to look out in the central-eastern Pacific to see what may come up from that way.

Of course with cold air this round banked up against the high Rockies.