Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Gotwood]

Freezing rain much further south as a result of the colder trend.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1674928800/1675231200-iZrJPDcaWdk.png

Yeah might end up getting more sleet up north. This is pretty similar to last year’s storm except it probably won’t be as far East. Started as freezing rain switched to sleet and finished with a splash of snow.

[gpsnowman]

Freezing rain much further south as a result of the colder trend.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1674928800/1675231200-iZrJPDcaWdk.png

Hopefully with the colder trends we might see more of a sleet profile or even a sleet/snow mix. That could be just wishful thinking on my part.

[txtwister78]

This is a tricky situation. If it’s too light yet cold we may repeat 2021 with patchy ice. I recall going to school that day worrying and yet not a bit of ice in my area. Just south that awful crash.

But, if it’s ice to me the sweet spot is .10-25. Enough to be dangerous and close things but not take down lots of infrastructure.

A little ice is IMO better than patchy stuff after 2021. But, not a major ice storm.

Soil temps are still plenty warm and so outside the usual elevated bridges and overpasses threat (which obviously can be an issue in the bigger cities) with temps hovering around 30-32 the surface roads would be fine. If I'm not mistaken though temps in DFW were a few degrees colder during that 2021 patchy ice event.

NWS out of Fort Worth still not sold however (per their AFD) on this being an issue within the Metroplex for now.

[Texas Snow]

I thought with the latest Hi-Rez, the NWS would have tuned a little more bullish for DFW but alas, not yet. They did mention there could be a brief chance Tuesday morning for the freezing line to be set up across the metroplex, but didn’t seem too excited about it

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flip tomorrow after a few more runs if they continue, but so far they are holding ground.

[TropicalTundra]

I thought with the latest Hi-Rez, the NWS would have tuned a little more bullish for DFW but alas, not yet. They did mention there could be a brief chance Tuesday morning for the freezing line to be set up across the metroplex, but didn’t seem too excited about it

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flip tomorrow after a few more runs if they continue, but so far they are holding ground.

Especially NAM. Dallas getting frz rain Monday and Tuesday and changes over to sleet as storm wraps up. Can’t rule out snowflakes but I think odds are pretty low on that

[SnowintheFalls]

Maybe I am mistaken but everything I have seen from the models has taken the potential frozen precipitation further south and east of Wichita Falls. The NWS out of Norman is still talking about a pretty good chance we get a frozen mix from Monday to Thursday. What are they basing this information on?

[Ntxw]

Monday evening to Tuesday morning is the dicey period for DFW and really much of the region along and west of I-35 from NTX to C-TX. The difference between 30-32 vs 27-30 can be impactful. It'll be a light freezing drizzle but we know the drill, it's these little things causing the issue because people underestimate it.

[Iceresistance]

Maybe I am mistaken but everything I have seen from the models has taken the potential frozen precipitation further south and east of Wichita Falls. The NWS out of Norman is still talking about a pretty good chance we get a frozen mix from Monday to Thursday. What are they basing this information on?

Maybe the CMC for consistency (no pun intended) and the mesoscale models?

[Ntxw]

Maybe I am mistaken but everything I have seen from the models has taken the potential frozen precipitation further south and east of Wichita Falls. The NWS out of Norman is still talking about a pretty good chance we get a frozen mix from Monday to Thursday. What are they basing this information on?

Maybe the CMC for consistency (no pun intended) and the mesoscale models?

Early week is driven by impulses coming from the southern stream. QPF is higher south and east. Later in the week, Weds/Thurs WF and Oklahoma increases qpf as the ULL feature approaches.

[Ntxw]

1054 hp bulldozer. Front is also clearing Kansas.

[Ntxw]

There is another signal 8th-10th Feb period as the western trough reloads. Not sure about the cold air quality or delivery HP at that point but it is rinse repeat. NE Pacific pattern is stuck.

[gpsnowman]

There is another signal 8th-10th Feb period as the western trough reloads. Not sure about the cold air quality or delivery HP at that point but it is rinse repeat. NE Pacific pattern is stuck.

Cosgrove has mentioned a possible arctic dump in mid to late February as a result of a SSW. Is that still on the table or is it all talk for now?

[harp]

There is another signal 8th-10th Feb period as the western trough reloads. Not sure about the cold air quality or delivery HP at that point but it is rinse repeat. NE Pacific pattern is stuck.

Cosgrove has mentioned a possible arctic dump in mid to late February as a result of a SSW. Is that still on the table or is it all talk for now?

Good question! We are running out of time!

[Ralph's Weather]

There is another signal 8th-10th Feb period as the western trough reloads. Not sure about the cold air quality or delivery HP at that point but it is rinse repeat. NE Pacific pattern is stuck.

Cosgrove has mentioned a possible arctic dump in mid to late February as a result of a SSW. Is that still on the table or is it all talk for now?

Good question! We are running out of time!

Still have almost 10 weeks before the record latest snow for N and NE TX.

[Ntxw]

There is another signal 8th-10th Feb period as the western trough reloads. Not sure about the cold air quality or delivery HP at that point but it is rinse repeat. NE Pacific pattern is stuck.

Cosgrove has mentioned a possible arctic dump in mid to late February as a result of a SSW. Is that still on the table or is it all talk for now?

The ducks haven't aligned for a deep, cold shot like December that really drives home. The pattern is repeating like it is now TPV hovering Hudson Bay and pieces get delivered once the Pacific/Arctic sends an HP. The current one wasn't seen well until closer. I don't think we revert to a warm pattern this month, it will be more consistent cold shots.

[orangeblood]

Monday evening to Tuesday morning is the dicey period for DFW and really much of the region along and west of I-35 from NTX to C-TX. The difference between 30-32 vs 27-30 can be impactful. It'll be a light freezing drizzle but we know the drill, it's these little things causing the issue because people underestimate it.

Wednesday morning could be worse according to CMC and it’s Ensembles with higher precip potential

[Gotwood]

There is another signal 8th-10th Feb period as the western trough reloads. Not sure about the cold air quality or delivery HP at that point but it is rinse repeat. NE Pacific pattern is stuck.

Cosgrove has mentioned a possible arctic dump in mid to late February as a result of a SSW. Is that still on the table or is it all talk for now?

Do you think the warm air ends up beating out the cold? Especially towards Wednesday night into Thursday.
The ducks haven't aligned for a deep, cold shot like December that really drives home. The pattern is repeating like it is now TPV hovering Hudson Bay and pieces get delivered once the Pacific/Arctic sends an HP. The current one wasn't seen well until closer. I don't think we revert to a warm pattern this month, it will be more consistent cold shots.

[Iceresistance]

Cosgrove has mentioned a possible arctic dump in mid to late February as a result of a SSW. Is that still on the table or is it all talk for now?

The ducks haven't aligned for a deep, cold shot like December that really drives home. The pattern is repeating like it is now TPV hovering Hudson Bay and pieces get delivered once the Pacific/Arctic sends an HP. The current one wasn't seen well until closer. I don't think we revert to a warm pattern this month, it will be more consistent cold shots.

Do you think the warm air ends up beating out the cold? Especially towards Wednesday night into Thursday.

Me? (I'm not Ntxw) I don't think so, the cold is absolutely screaming to the south, it has already reached Northern Oklahoma.

[txtwister78]

[gpsnowman]

Negatives in Nebraska. You love to see it.