Texas Winter 2018-2019

[South Texas Storms]

I hate ice. Still not completely right after falling last January after the sleet storm...

Sorry to hear Steve...Snow would be much better than ice for sure. Hopefully we trend colder!

[Ntxw]

It does appear the drying out over Indonesia is happening. Nino standing wave will have a better shot at taking over global circulations.

[Cpv17]

I hate ice. Still not completely right after falling last January after the sleet storm...

Sorry to hear Steve...Snow would be much better than ice for sure. Hopefully we trend colder!

The departure from average anomalies are much more impressive up north. The cold really seems to lose its punch on the way down south. Don’t like the look of that.

[Tireman4]

LOL, this thread parallels college fan bases during recruiting season...

"17 year old X committed to my favorite school! What an upstanding young man and hard worker"
**17 year old X decommits.
***"That kid is a prick and his parents are horrible parents. Does commitment mean anything?"


GFS shows lots of snow. "It's going to happen, you know because GFS has a slightly better score than the Euro this year."
GFS loses it and Euro picks it up. "Well the Euro historically is much better. The GFS is full of poop."
Euro loses it and the Canadian is the only one left showing "Euro and GFS are off its meds. This 2 star Canadian model is going to nail it this time"

This is beautiful.

Prophetic is more the word...Every Winter..Every time...

[wxman57]

From Pivotal Weather, here's the 12Z GFS ice accumulation map for Texas next week. Core is 2.6" of ice, looks like around Waco. Note that the GFS sounding for that area indicates temps in the 28-29 deg range with a very significant warm layer aloft - a freezing rain and/or sleet profile. I don't think we want this to verify...

[Cerlin]

From Pivotal Weather, here's the 12Z GFS ice accumulation map for Texas next week. Core is 2.6" of ice, looks like around Waco. Note that the GFS sounding for that area indicates temps in the 28-29 deg range with a very significant warm layer aloft - a freezing rain and/or sleet profile. I don't think we want this to verify...

http://wxman57.com/images/ice.png

I will definitely pass on that one...totally okay with DFW getting left out of that.

[Haris]

I would not want 2” of ice at all obviously but some is totally fine. We can’t be too picky

[HockeyTx82]

From Pivotal Weather, here's the 12Z GFS ice accumulation map for Texas next week. Core is 2.6" of ice, looks like around Waco. Note that the GFS sounding for that area indicates temps in the 28-29 deg range with a very significant warm layer aloft - a freezing rain and/or sleet profile. I don't think we want this to verify...

http://wxman57.com/images/ice.png

What about snow? North of the ice or is this a tight band of ice only storm?

[Brent]

The clown map. Very little snow on the precip maps

[bubba hotep]

FV3 shifts North

[Brent]

Thursday is borderline on the FV GFS most of that especially S of DFW is for next weekend

[Portastorm]

From Pivotal Weather, here's the 12Z GFS ice accumulation map for Texas next week. Core is 2.6" of ice, looks like around Waco. Note that the GFS sounding for that area indicates temps in the 28-29 deg range with a very significant warm layer aloft - a freezing rain and/or sleet profile. I don't think we want this to verify...

http://wxman57.com/images/ice.png

Agreed. I'm fine with a little freeing drizzle and sleet to remind the rest of you that Austin is the Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas. But what this model run shows is crippling ice which would be very bad for a number of communities.

[cheezyWXguy]

FV3 shifts North

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013112/fv3p_asnow_eus_36.png

At this point I think it’s more important that we have a storm more than once in a row, than where exactly accumulations occur. Way too many false positives with the fv3 this season. It’s cautiously reassuring to see other models starting to latch on though

[Brent]

FV3 shifts North

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013112/fv3p_asnow_eus_36.png

At this point I think it’s more important that we have a storm more than once in a row, than where exactly accumulations occur. Way too many false positives with the fv3 this season. It’s cautiously reassuring to see other models starting to latch on though

totally agree with this...

[mcheer23]

FV3 shifts North

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013112/fv3p_asnow_eus_36.png

At this point I think it’s more important that we have a storm more than once in a row, than where exactly accumulations occur. Way too many false positives with the fv3 this season. It’s cautiously reassuring to see other models starting to latch on though

Well said. Looking forward to see what the EURO has to say.

[bubba hotep]

Euro is running, while any potential event is 7 or 8 days out, key events, both upstream and downstream, will happen this weekend and the models should start to lock in on those.

[Ntxw]

Euro is running, while any potential event is 7 or 8 days out, key events, both upstream and downstream, will happen this weekend and the models should start to lock in on those.

Ensembles were signaling a possible storm around this period. We'll get something out of the northern branch but key will be if anything truly comes out from the southern stream. Without it the qpf will poof. Convection over the IDL gives hope.

[Shoshana]

From Pivotal Weather, here's the 12Z GFS ice accumulation map for Texas next week. Core is 2.6" of ice, looks like around Waco. Note that the GFS sounding for that area indicates temps in the 28-29 deg range with a very significant warm layer aloft - a freezing rain and/or sleet profile. I don't think we want this to verify...

http://wxman57.com/images/ice.png

Agreed. I'm fine with a little freeing drizzle and sleet to remind the rest of you that Austin is the Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas. But what this model run shows is crippling ice which would be very bad for a number of communities.

Agreed..... we just want enough snow to play in and take pics of. Ice can stay home!

[bubba hotep]

FV3 shifts North

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019013112/fv3p_asnow_eus_36.png

At this point I think it’s more important that we have a storm more than once in a row, than where exactly accumulations occur. Way too many false positives with the fv3 this season. It’s cautiously reassuring to see other models starting to latch on though

"Snow" maps are a good quick proxy to highlight changes in the models from run-to-run. You always have to dig deeper to see what is really going on.

[orangeblood]

Updated GEFS, continues the bullish theme....