Texas Winter 2022-2023

[harp]

I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!

Louisiana will get a glancing blow of this cold air, the western side is trending colder on the models.

Shouldn’t it be the eastern side?

[Iceresistance]

Nam trends.

https://i.imgur.com/0hNbpkX.gif

Houston went from 70s to 50s in the NAM trends from 12z to 0z!

[Iceresistance]

I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!

Louisiana will get a glancing blow of this cold air, the western side is trending colder on the models.

Shouldn’t it be the eastern side?

Also trending colder, but not as crazy compared to the western side.

[orangeblood]

Nam trends.

https://i.imgur.com/0hNbpkX.gif

Some issues could arise even tomorrow afternoon around metroplex at this rate, surprises always pop up in these setups

[Ntxw]

I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!

Louisiana will get a glancing blow of this cold air, the western side is trending colder on the models.

Shouldn’t it be the eastern side?

The upper flow theoretically wants to push the air eastward/se eastward and run into the SE ridge. Areas to the west the shallow cold will pile up, being shoved by the high pressure against the mountains. That pooling just adds weight, momentum and it continues downhill which is why the western section is often colder in such set ups.

[Iceresistance]

Now, for once (and hopefully the only time), we need the DFW Heat Island or DFW Dry Slot to prevent this Ice Storm from getting Y'all!

[SnowintheFalls]

Wichita Falls got some snow recently so I am definitely good with missing out on the ice! I just hope it is not a crippling ice event for y'all in the DFW area.

[Ntxw]

Here is a classic visual of cold air damming at its finest. This HP really hugs the front range of the Rockies and flow ahead is NE to SW against the upper flow. Which is why we have a good icing set up.



HPs that come down central Canada and sits over the Dakotas/Minnesota are less likely to do this being too far east. Those will drive the cold over the Ms River Basin.

[Ntxw]

To follow up by late Weds/Thurs the HP will weaken and a new one comes from the North. That one is eastward so moderation will likely take place like the GFS/Euro has because lower level flow will match upper level flow, easy. At that point we wait for the ULL trough to come out. If enough cold is lingering may see another bout of sleet/snow but tbd how that feature approaches.

[Brent]

It's such a mess up here the TV met earlier was like let's just worry about Monday right now we have frozen chances all the way to Thursday sometime. Hopefully the snow overperforms because nobody needs freezing rain

[Ntxw]

Icon with RGEM has a steady stream of light to heavy freezing rain for much of Tuesday afternoon through Weds morning. I think from a standpoint the southern 'burb's probably gets hit the hardest this first round with higher qpf.

[Iceresistance]

Front is now along I-44 from Chickasha to Tulsa

[Ntxw]

Given what's happening at the WPC (local nws tends to follow the national probabilities) the greatest odds 0.25" icing event is right over the most densely populated areas, local WFO will probably have to change the tune.

[Haris]

This is before the main wave Wed. Someone is gonna get close to ice storm warning criteria

[wxman57]

Looks like this will be a VERY shallow sub-freezing layer. Won't even make it to Houston, much less south Louisiana. I still think the Canadian is way too cold and with too much freezing rain, but the D-FW area could be hovering around freezing Monday with light precip. No snow, as the cold air will be too shallow. Cold rain and freezing rain would be most likely. Enjoy it. Just cold rain for Houston.

[Texas Snow]

GFS still ain’t budging on temps, the battle continues

[bubba hotep]

Looks like this will be a VERY shallow sub-freezing layer. Won't even make it to Houston, much less south Louisiana. I still think the Canadian is way too cold and with too much freezing rain, but the D-FW area could be hovering around freezing Monday with light precip. No snow, as the cold air will be too shallow. Cold rain and freezing rain would be most likely. Enjoy it. Just cold rain for Houston.

Freezing rain/drizzle Monday night into Tuesday morning has always been on the board. The question is how fast do we see moderation, and is there any sustained CAA to keep temps below freezing into the Tuesday night - Thursday period when models show the heaviest QPF? Still beyond the hi-res, but the 00z ICON does show a few hours of freezing rain Wednesday morning before warming DFW up above freezing.

[Ntxw]

Even the cold Canadian moderates after Weds to above freezing, that isn't in question. Too dry and too warm initially is the fault of the GFS/Euro.

[txtwister78]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/5xjYgKJ/rgem-all-tx-frzr-total-5252800.png [/url]


This is before the main wave Wed. Someone is gonna get close to ice storm warning criteria

Right now, looks a little overdone to me compared to Hi-Res guidance (NAM) but we shall see as more data comes within range.

[cstrunk]

Looking forward to cold rain this week.

Not.

I think us in E TX will get in on this one, freezing rain will be borderline Tue and Wed with temps in the 31 to 34 range. Wed to Thu could end up pretty snowy though.

I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything to be confident yet at all.