Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

Even the cold Canadian moderates after Weds to above freezing, that isn't in question. Too dry and too warm initially is the fault of the GFS/Euro.

Yes, so the question is what are you buying before temps eventually warm?



or

[orangeblood]

Even the cold Canadian moderates after Weds to above freezing, that isn't in question. Too dry and too warm initially is the fault of the GFS/Euro.

CMC doesn’t really stop the frz rain until Thursday
Morning….temps stay in the 20s from Monday morning thru Wednesday afternoon, this could get ugly if anywhere close to verifying

[Ntxw]

Even the cold Canadian moderates after Weds to above freezing, that isn't in question. Too dry and too warm initially is the fault of the GFS/Euro.

Yes, so the question is what are you buying before temps eventually warm?

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2023012900/120/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

or

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012900/120/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

GFS has already caved at 5h to the CMC with the ULL. Much further south dig and better orientation. That'll bring better qpf return, as for temps pretty sure hi-res would take over GFS.

[orangeblood]

Even the cold Canadian moderates after Weds to above freezing, that isn't in question. Too dry and too warm initially is the fault of the GFS/Euro.

Yes, so the question is what are you buying before temps eventually warm?

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2023012900/120/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

or

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012900/120/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I’ll take the one who hasn’t waivered for several days of runs in a row (and now has backing) for a $1000, Alex!!

[txtwister78]

Even the cold Canadian moderates after Weds to above freezing, that isn't in question. Too dry and too warm initially is the fault of the GFS/Euro.

CMC doesn’t really stop the frz rain until Thursday
Morning….temps stay in the 20s from Monday morning thru Wednesday afternoon, this could get ugly if anywhere close to verifying

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674950400/1675296000-bA7FTCa2gcc.png

The only problem I have with the CMC is it does its usual super cold at night bias under these setups and so I don't see us having that kind of temp variation across most areas where it keeps freezing temps longer. I think temps will hover or warm a few degrees for most areas and not drop that significantly. Just don't buy it yet despite most of the Op's with impulses of precip coming across the S central, Central and northern sections.

[Ghost0321]

Is it possible that some of the models that are showing heavy frozen precip are overestimating the depth of the cold air?

[Ntxw]

Is it possible that some of the models that are showing heavy frozen precip are overestimating the depth of the cold air?

Anything is possible until it happens. But banking on models that don't even agree with its own ensembles is usually a red flag. Could it win out? Of course! But that's not the higher probability.

[Ntxw]

The Ukmet has gotten some colder. I don't think it depicts freezing rain at least from this source but maybe sleet?

[orangeblood]

The Ukmet has gotten some colder. I don't think it depicts freezing rain at least from this source but maybe sleet?

https://i.imgur.com/DpfKE1f.png

Also has 0.5-1.0 inch QPF before Wednesday morning.

To think, just two days ago the FW office had a high of 58F with light showers on Tuesday for DFW. May become the biggest bust we’ve ever seen from that office inside 5 days

[Gotwood]

The Ukmet has gotten some colder. I don't think it depicts freezing rain at least from this source but maybe sleet?

https://i.imgur.com/DpfKE1f.png

Definitely a sleet fest most likely.

[Ntxw]

The Ukmet has gotten some colder. I don't think it depicts freezing rain at least from this source but maybe sleet?

https://i.imgur.com/DpfKE1f.png

Also has 0.5-1.0 inch QPF before Wednesday morning.

To think, just two days ago the FW office had a high of 58F with light showers on Tuesday for DFW. May become the biggest bust we’ve ever seen from that office inside 5 days

GFS and Euro midweek runs after the snow event had this coming Tuesday in the 50s and some 60s. That is probably where they got it from and climo. CMC at that time was showing upper 20s. This is about the same time it locked in too. If it wins out, it has been quite a reliable model for synoptics if you account for biases.

[orangeblood]

CMC Op has almost unanimous backing from its Ensembles for a potentially very serious Tuesday night/Wednesday morning Ice Storm

[orangeblood]

The Ukmet has gotten some colder. I don't think it depicts freezing rain at least from this source but maybe sleet?

https://i.imgur.com/DpfKE1f.png

Also has 0.5-1.0 inch QPF before Wednesday morning.

To think, just two days ago the FW office had a high of 58F with light showers on Tuesday for DFW. May become the biggest bust we’ve ever seen from that office inside 5 days

GFS and Euro midweek runs after the snow event had this coming Tuesday in the 50s and some 60s. That is probably where they got it from and climo. CMC at that time was showing upper 20s. This is about the same time it locked in too. If it wins out, it has been quite a reliable model for synoptics if you account for biases.

Oh no doubt where they got it from, the question is why given the known shallow dense cold airmass this was/cold air damming…which the CMC knocks it out of the park with. Feb 21’ fundamentally changed the way I look at the model world, exposed so many flaws with GFS and Euro

[Ntxw]

Euro ain't budging either, love it.

[harp]

Euro ain't budging either, love it.

How so? Too warm?

[Ntxw]

Euro ain't budging either, love it.

How so? Too warm?

It's like the GFS. By Weds we will either call them garbage or eat crow .

[Ghost0321]

For some reason I still think the models are overestimating the depth of the cold air…DFW might get some freezing rain but if the cold air is only a few hundred feet deep + convection warming up the air…either way someone is going to be eating crow by Tuesday

[Ralph's Weather]

For some reason I still think the models are overestimating the depth of the cold air…DFW might get some freezing rain but if the cold air is only a few hundred feet deep + convection warming up the air…either way someone is going to be eating crow by Tuesday

With the surface high something I doubt temps will be too warm. Now I don't expect much diurnal swings in temps either way. Some in NTX will drop below freezing tomorrow and stay there until late week. The bust potential north of I-30 is likely for deeper cold and more sleet. By Thu it will likely fall as snow for most as the core of cold upper low moves overhead.

[Haris]

upload



Holy !! RGEM is running too warm. Not a good sign

[Ntxw]

6z HRRR looks similar to 0z. DFW and points west and north doesn't make it much above 30 Monday. With a batch of qpf.

FW seems to have picked a side forecasting 33F for a high rather than 40s.