Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

Having the GFS already this cold for 7 days out is a great sign but fasten your seat belts ladies and gentlemen, it’s going to be a roller coaster week of model watching coming up!!!

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies continue to look good. Once the pattern shift sets in, it looks pretty stable all the way into March. It is hard to imagine that we won't see multiple winter wx threats across Texas over the next 5 to 6 weeks.

[bubba hotep]

Having the GFS already this cold for 7 days out is a great sign but fasten your seat belts ladies and gentlemen, it’s going to be a roller coaster week of model watching coming up!!!

I was thinking that earlier. It seems like the GFS has been pretty stingy with winter wx inside of D10.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

18z GFS mostly ice some snow north of DFW

https://i.ibb.co/vj0Ld5X/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

GFS sticking to its guns at least. NBC 5 isn't too thrilled with much cold though on the 4 o'clock report. Really need to see those temps in NW Canada make a move colder the next couple days or we will be waiting for the next storm system.

Dan Brounoff at KRLD did put up on FB this morning "winter returning with a vengeance" so I guess we'll see

like I said earlier I'm gonna be a skeptic on frozen precip til we get more agreement

They plastered stories on local news and all over social media around here in mid January for the supposed “big winter return” we were supposed to have gotten by now. Of course only 2 days with highs near 50 and lows barely to freezing is all we got. It was all a bunch of hype just to get ratings and views imo.

Ask anyone from LA to NC how skeptical they are on cold temps and frozen precip regardless of how many times and how often models show frozen precip and snow.

[wxman57]

Looking at the latest GFS runs and comparing the surface to the 500mb pattern, I do have a question as to how much cold air will make it into western Canada, which is where it needs to be for us to get very cold (and icy). By the end of the run, the GFS is indicating a flow pattern that could bring some very cold air into western Canada, but it's the 384hr panel...

[Ntxw]

Trending towards a good look upstream of us from the CPC with the darker shades more aligned for the plains. We have seen this a couple of times (December 2013 and January 2018) both delivering snow and ice to Texas. -PNA definitely in play here.

[Ntxw]

You can also see looking up that the Pacific becomes less dominated by the polar jet and AEJ to be influenced, eventually, with a more uniform Subtropical Jet. Regardless of ice/snow/or cold the signal is still for above normal precipitation for several weeks.

[TheProfessor]

Trending towards a good look upstream of us from the CPC with the darker shades more aligned for the plains. We have seen this a couple of times (December 2013 and January 2018) both delivering snow and ice to Texas. -PNA definitely in play here.

https://images2.imgbox.com/db/e6/4zfpyyQO_o.gif

Being in that equal chance area is right where I want to be. Gives me some chances to possibly get a big storm if that's how the 500 pattern sets up.

[srainhoutx]

Downwelling stratospheric temperatures, Urals High building, AO crashing, EPO negative, -PNA, blocking signatures growing. What could go wrong...

[Quixotic]

Downwelling stratospheric temperatures, Urals High building, AO crashing, EPO negative, -PNA, blocking signatures growing. What could go wrong...

A bunch. Most likely the progressive pattern across the northern stream.

[Ntxw]

DFW had a net 0 daily anomaly today. That gives us -0.2F below normal (would count this as near normal +/-0.5 is my unofficial guideline) for January. December was +1.3F above.

Now if February comes below normal, and needs to be about -2 or -3F below, then this would be a classic Nino climo winter almost that starts mild and cools as the winter goes. Assuming February is cold.

Believe it or not most of the months for the past half year or so (with December being the warmest) DFW has largely been near or below normal. It has been astonishing with no real torch in any month since July. Given what has happened the past 10-15 years it is truly remarkable. So you can say that since about late summer the El Nino typical behaviors to temperatures has played a good influence to what you would typically see that is not a Super event. So even though we may not have realized it at the time, on a broader low frequency background has worked to script.

[Brent]

Downwelling stratospheric temperatures, Urals High building, AO crashing, EPO negative, -PNA, blocking signatures growing. What could go wrong...

with our luck lately who knows

[harp]

GFS sticking to its guns at least. NBC 5 isn't too thrilled with much cold though on the 4 o'clock report. Really need to see those temps in NW Canada make a move colder the next couple days or we will be waiting for the next storm system.

Dan Brounoff at KRLD did put up on FB this morning "winter returning with a vengeance" so I guess we'll see

like I said earlier I'm gonna be a skeptic on frozen precip til we get more agreement

They plastered stories on local news and all over social media around here in mid January for the supposed “big winter return” we were supposed to have gotten by now. Of course only 2 days with highs near 50 and lows barely to freezing is all we got. It was all a bunch of hype just to get ratings and views imo.

Ask anyone from LA to NC how skeptical they are on cold temps and frozen precip regardless of how many times and how often models show frozen precip and snow.

Yeah, Mike you are right. The recent forecast bust was something. Were you guys in Gonzales supposed to get snow? I know Mississippi didn't get a fraction of what was forecast. I'm in Harahan and we never had a chance. This was a classic case of precip out running the cold air.

[Brent]

0z GFS is way warmer Thursday DFW in the mid to upper 70s, maybe some tornadoes this run?

the high over the Dakotas is 10 mb weaker

[spencer817]

0z GFS is way warmer Thursday DFW in the mid to upper 70s, maybe some tornadoes this run?

Nothing to worry about, its just the operational playing with us as usual. I actually like to see it unfavorable in the mid range.

THe ensembles are our friend

[Brent]

0z GFS is way warmer Thursday DFW in the mid to upper 70s, maybe some tornadoes this run?

Nothing to worry about, its just the operational playing with us as usual. I actually like to see it unfavorable in the mid range.

THe ensembles are our friend

only half the ensembles had anything though

[Haris]

Oh great, no rain even on this garbage run of the GFS. We'll hope it's wrong. Cant trust any run whether cold or warm with this amount of volatility.

[Brent]

seriously though I thought the GFS was being retired

[spencer817]

If this upcoming pattern doesn't bring anything, I would start to seriously doubt DFW winter weather chances in the future. Seems like this place is cursed by a Heat Miser...

[Haris]

I dont care about snow and ice anymore. I want heavy rains and small hail storms (no damage) with lightning