Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #4881 Postby **TT-SEA** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:05 pm

It will be interesting.

AGAIN.. JUST TO REPEAT... I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DO NOT JUMP ALL OVER ME THE FIRST TIME SOMETHING APPEARS ON THE RADAR.

My predicted highs for Sea-Tac:

Friday - 68 degrees
Saturday - 71 degrees
Sunday - 67 degrees

My predicted highs for Bellevue:

Friday - 71 degrees
Saturday - 72 degrees
Sunday - 69 degrees

My predicted highs in North Bend:

Friday - 72 degrees
Saturday - 76 degrees
Sunday - 69 degrees

Currently sunny and 67 degrees at my house.

snow_wizzard · #4882 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:12 pm

TT...What happened to the near 80 stuff on Sunday! :lol:

Anyway, I am elated right now. The 12z ECMWF is much cooler than its previous solutions!

It is showing 850mb temps of 6C for Saturday night, 5C for Sunday night, and 2C for Monday night. No really warm air to be found. In fact on Saturday night it shows cool air from the north and south both effecting the region. By day 7 it agrees with GFS in digging a Canadian trough into the NW. Now we're talking!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_72.gif

Nobody is going to dampen my spirits about this fabulous year!

snow_wizzard · #4883 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:27 pm

Hmmm....A very seasonable 59 degrees at Sea - Tac as of 4:00pm. That's the one that counts!

snow_wizzard · #4884 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:03 pm

That Covington Elementary thermometer has got to go. I just used a certified mercury max-min thermometer to verify my other mercury thermomer and both of them say 62. The one at the school says 68. What a joke!

I am sure glad that weather station is not part of a global warming study!

andycottle · #4885 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:28 pm

Pretty nice afternoon here, folks! Had some low clouds through about late morning, then skies became mostly sunny with just a few high cirrus clouds at times. My high today reached 70 degrees again. And my low was 48. Currently at 5:34pm I have a temp of 67 with mostly sunny skies and just a few high clouds. -- Andy

Guest · #4886 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:44 pm

TT-SEA wrote:Snow_Wizzard... what are you looking at????

The latest 18Z run of the NAM has very high 850mb temperatures all weekend and sunshine for most of Saturday and Sunday.

AND... southeast flow pulling up warm air from the Desert Southwest.

This could be a VERY warm weekend!!

Low clouds breaking up now and temperatures should climb nicely this afternoon. Even warmer tomorrow.

I think this warm spell is progressing VERY nicely!!

TT I think your posts are rather amusing they are getting so rediculous... You are changing the model you rely on to whatever shows the warmest and driest weather. Wasn't it just a day or two ago you were relying on the ECMWF? It is getting cooler and wetter so you switch to the warmer and drier NAM... Also, you say this warm spell is progressing quite nicely... WHAT WARM SPELL... We have sunny skies and temps in the low 60's throughout western washington. The norm for this time of year is about 60 degrees. I would say that this SO CALLED WARM SPELL, isn't pregressing much at all.

Guest · #4887 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:46 pm

Tomorrow and saturday will be the only 2 really warm days..

Guest · #4888 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:49 pm

TT-SEA wrote:We have to make a bet on the weather for Sunday!!

I see some sunshine... offshore flow... and 850mb temperatures near 15C!!!!!!

That could EASILY make my prediction of the last 10 days come true. There will be a few spots touching 80 degrees.

Mid 50's?????

You trust the GFS too much in this pattern.

So i see you are saying some places could touch 80 on sunday... Then 10 minutes later you come off making a prediction for three different places, all which you say highs will be in the 60's... Hmmm, that's funny. How can some places touch 80 when temps are only in the 60's? Backtracking a bit there and trying to sneek a cheep shot right on by us ayyy?

Also, you say you want to make a bet with Snowwizz and say that you predict offshore flow with sunny weather... On the next page you repeat yourself twice saying that there could be showers friday through sunday... IT IS WAY TOO OBVIOUS TO TRY AND COVER UP NOW TT... ADMIT IT, YOU ARE GOING TO BE WRONG. WRONG WRONG WRONG ALLL WRONG... :lol:

Guest · #4889 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:50 pm

TT-SEA wrote:It will be interesting.

AGAIN.. JUST TO REPEAT... I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DO NOT JUMP ALL OVER ME THE FIRST TIME SOMETHING APPEARS ON THE RADAR.

My predicted highs for Sea-Tac:

Friday - 68 degrees
Saturday - 71 degrees
Sunday - 67 degrees

HMMMM HOW DOES THIS RELATE TO WHAT YOU SAID IN MY LAST QUOTED POST ABOUT IT BEING HOT AND NEAR 80 IN PLACES... WHATS UP WITH THAT?
My predicted highs for Bellevue:

Friday - 71 degrees
Saturday - 72 degrees
Sunday - 69 degrees

My predicted highs in North Bend:

Friday - 72 degrees
Saturday - 76 degrees
Sunday - 69 degrees

Currently sunny and 67 degrees at my house.

snow_wizzard · #4890 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:52 pm

We ended up with 62 - 44 in Covington. That makes for a daily average 2 degrees above normal. I am rather surprised that Sea - Tac, so far, has only managed an anemic 59 degrees. I guess my luck is in place right now!

AnthonyC · #4891 Postby **AnthonyC** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:06 pm

This current weather pattern is unbelievable. There's no steering current to direct systems...you've got a strong ridge of high pressure off the west coast and a strong ridge of high pressure off the east coast. Stuck inbetween is a few upper level lows. When has an upper level low moved from east to west? It just doesn't happen.

And the forecast gets more complicated...there's one model that brings an upper level low up from California, keeps the current low off the OR coast and brings another low down from Canada...and they ALL MERGE!! What's the chances of this happening? Almost nada.

And the models do a TERRIBLE job in these situations. This is more "typical"...if you can call it that...in the dead of summer. It's only the end of April!

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #4892 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:10 pm

I agree with that assessment Anthony. There is something really weird going on this year! As you will recall we had an almost "summer" like setup in February also (even though it produced record lows). Any bets that we go back to a winter like pattern within the next 10 - 14 days, if not sooner?

snow_wizzard · #4893 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:15 pm

An interesting note...All of our REALLY BIG winters always have very abnormal weather in the months before them. For example...1949 had freakish spring and summer record lows, 1861 had the most amazing summer ever witnessed in this region, 1968 had abnormal warmth and wettness in the early part of the year, and an amazingly wet August. There is always a warning that something is up before the big ones. Now I await the criticism for these comments! :lol:

Guest · #4894 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:45 pm

My TT prediction towards your comments SNow Wizz... :lol:

TT: Snowwizz you are going way too out of control with this pattern... you always try to find things that lead to cold winters.. YOu probably find stuff every year that supposively leads to cold winters...Well next winter is going to be warm and mild because i think so...

:lol:

snow_wizzard · #4895 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:02 pm

That does sound vaguely familiar Brennan!

Just to clarify, I am not saying this oddball stuff means we are definitely going to have an amazing winter. I just posted it as food for thought...

If this was a typical run of the mill year, I would not be nearly this stoked!

Guest · #4896 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:08 pm

Common TT i want you to post your hopeless, amusing defense about your predictions that you made earlier... I am bored and need some laughter.

andycottle · #4897 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:34 pm

Looking the latest GFS, AVN, ETA and MRF....they all show light to moderate amounts of precip for Sunday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks mostly dry. Lifted indices for tomorrow through Sunday are about -2. Now as far as the upper level winds go....there in a SE direction at 850MB and in a SW direction up at 500MB. MM5 model having somwhat of a moistened airmass through Sunday at 850MB. However, moisture contend is looking pretty good at the 500MB - 700MB level. AND....tomorrow afternoon there could very well be some pretty good t-storms over extreme SW Western WA, and the Northern most region of Western Oregon as CAPE values are in the 300 to 400 J/KG range. That is plenty to fire of Storms!! So with a warm airmass and the SW winds at 25kts with a temp in the low -20`sC range....there should be some nice storms firing up during the afternoon hours of tomorrow.

Might also see some t-storms on Saturday for Western WA, but as mentioned above, Sunday look`s to be best day for any precip right now.

-- Andy

Guest · #4898 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:24 pm

Common TT i have been waiting for hours on end now... What are you going to pull out of your pocket this time?

Guest · #4899 Postby **Guest** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:07 pm

ZZZZZZ! TT wake me up when you think of something...

andrewr · #4900 Postby **andrewr** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:38 pm

Well in defense of TT, the NWS said that Sea-Tac might get to 70 and if that is the case, then some places could very well be near 80.

EDIT: Stampede Pass broke a record high today with 63F.

EDIT 2: I bet TT is waiting just to make sure that tomorrow is going to be very warm, and then you'll get to hear from him Brennan. And trust me, you'll hear from him!

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