Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

The FW NWS has changed their tune this morning
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Now that’s what you call an About Face! Would expect WSWs to be issued at some point today…a blend of short range guidance looks like best combo of sub freezing temps and highest QPF puts DFW right in the bullseye unfortunately. Likely meeting Ice Storm Warning criteria it appears

Being potential impacts and also multi-day and little lead time at this juncture, WSWs now would be a wise decision. Last thing you want is a bunch of folks going out to prepare for it tomorrow.

Coverage of any ice from WPC probability.

https://i.imgur.com/I2xswHn.gif

I'm kind of surprised they haven't been lifted. The FRAM, SREF, and HREF don't show much in the way of precipitation for DFW, but temps look to be cold enough that drizzle will cause complications. The big question will be the timing of the onset of heavier QPF and temps warming. Not only are the Canadian models colder, but they also are more aggressive with QPF while temps are below freezing.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The front appears to have cold in colder than forecasted. Currently 26.9.

[Iceresistance]

The front appears to have cold in colder than forecasted. Currently 26.9.

23°F in Shawnee, my area is 22°F

[orangeblood]

Now that’s what you call an About Face! Would expect WSWs to be issued at some point today…a blend of short range guidance looks like best combo of sub freezing temps and highest QPF puts DFW right in the bullseye unfortunately. Likely meeting Ice Storm Warning criteria it appears

Being potential impacts and also multi-day and little lead time at this juncture, WSWs now would be a wise decision. Last thing you want is a bunch of folks going out to prepare for it tomorrow.

Coverage of any ice from WPC probability.

https://i.imgur.com/I2xswHn.gif

I'm kind of surprised they haven't been lifted. The FRAM, SREF, and HREF don't show much in the way of precipitation for DFW, but temps look to be cold enough that drizzle will cause complications. The big question will be the timing of the onset of heavier QPF and temps warming. Not only are the Canadian models colder, but they also are more aggressive with QPF while temps are below freezing.

Both days look dicey…Monday patchy light frz rain/drizzle, Tuesday more juiced up QPF day across almost all models

[Ntxw]

I'm kind of surprised they haven't been lifted. The FRAM, SREF, and HREF don't show much in the way of precipitation for DFW, but temps look to be cold enough that drizzle will cause complications. The big question will be the timing of the onset of heavier QPF and temps warming. Not only are the Canadian models colder, but they also are more aggressive with QPF while temps are below freezing.

Some overperforming in the SE parts of the state with rain this morning. Dews are 65+ and near 70 along the coast. The gulf is open. This trough digging so far into the Baja is tapping both Pacific and the gulf. Tuesday is interesting to me, not the heaviest of qpf but a stream of light to moderate qpf that is textbook accretion.

[Portastorm]

Seen some posts here dogging the NWS. It’s pretty damn easy to issue forecasts from your laptop on a weather forum … but when you have millions of people to account for and multi millions in business, the job becomes a lot harder. Like what NWS forecasters deal with. You have a jaded public who rolls their eyes when warnings are issued and thinks you are alarmists. What to do?!

As it is this event hasn’t happened yet. We think we know the outcome but we don’t. I’m just saying we don’t have any skin in the game like they do, so it’s easy for us. If most of us sat in their seats, we’d be crapping our pants probably. Just sayin’. Have some perspective.

[Lptx]

34 degrees & dropping with light rain in NW Parker County. Wasn’t expecting it to be this cold this early…

[EnnisTx]

Seen some posts here dogging the NWS. It’s pretty damn easy to issue forecasts from your laptop on a weather forum … but when you have millions of people to account for and multi millions in business, the job becomes a lot harder. Like what NWS forecasters deal with. You have a jaded public who rolls their eyes when warnings are issued and thinks you are alarmists. What to do?!

As it is this event hasn’t happened yet. We think we know the outcome but we don’t. I’m just saying we don’t have any skin in the game like they do, so it’s easy for us. If most of us sat in their seats, we’d be crapping our pants probably. Just sayin’. Have some perspective.

Totally agree. Also, crapping your pants would definitely add some perspective and texture to the subject!

[TropicalTundra]

Freezing rain on radar just west of the metroplex. Watch out

[Iceresistance]

Freezing rain on radar just west of the metroplex. Watch out

Yeah, it's currently north of Weatherford, TX, and moving towards Denton.

[rwfromkansas]

I think there are lots of questions on how much we will actually get. I don’t get why some are still pretty low QPF. This should be pretty juiced Tuesday though not CMC level of multi-inches.

Maybe .50.

That’s a lot.

I wonder if they will call school Monday-Wed?

I doubt tomorrow, but I really don’t want to go in and have a surprise during the day. I have been battling a terrible sinus infection so I may just call in sick and work on yearbook.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The front appears to have cold in colder than forecasted. Currently 26.9.

23°F in Shawnee, my area is 22°F

Both of our areas are unfortunately probably in for a wild week.

[bubba hotep]

Seen some posts here dogging the NWS. It’s pretty damn easy to issue forecasts from your laptop on a weather forum … but when you have millions of people to account for and multi millions in business, the job becomes a lot harder. Like what NWS forecasters deal with. You have a jaded public who rolls their eyes when warnings are issued and thinks you are alarmists. What to do?!

As it is this event hasn’t happened yet. We think we know the outcome but we don’t. I’m just saying we don’t have any skin in the game like they do, so it’s easy for us. If most of us sat in their seats, we’d be crapping our pants probably. Just sayin’. Have some perspective.

And the NWS has stated in the past that they do heavily consider the societal impact of their forecast, and that plays a role beyond just the criteria for certain types of advisories. Now, that has backfired in the past, but as you said, it's not as easy as saying, "damn! look at that model run! Winter Storm Watches for everyone!" Also, this isn't the only place that the NWS gets this kind of scrutiny, and I'm sure they are not too worried about what this forum thinks lol

[wxman22]

Not surprised at all about the potential for an ice storm this week in the northern half of the state.One of the biggest red flags to me was the fact that nearly all of the GFS ensembles were showing an ice storm except for the operational run.

[EnnisTx]

Freezing rain on radar just west of the metroplex. Watch out

Yeah, it's currently north of Weatherford, TX, and moving towards Denton.

My father lives North of Weatherford and says it’s 33* but it’s not freezing on their vehicles.

[Iceresistance]

Freezing rain on radar just west of the metroplex. Watch out

Yeah, it's currently north of Weatherford, TX, and moving towards Denton.

My father lives North of Weatherford and says it’s 33* but it’s not freezing on their vehicles.

I already have a thin sheet of Ice in my area and it's 22°F outside.

[orangeblood]

Seen some posts here dogging the NWS. It’s pretty damn easy to issue forecasts from your laptop on a weather forum … but when you have millions of people to account for and multi millions in business, the job becomes a lot harder. Like what NWS forecasters deal with. You have a jaded public who rolls their eyes when warnings are issued and thinks you are alarmists. What to do?!

As it is this event hasn’t happened yet. We think we know the outcome but we don’t. I’m just saying we don’t have any skin in the game like they do, so it’s easy for us. If most of us sat in their seats, we’d be crapping our pants probably. Just sayin’. Have some perspective.

I’m sorry but I just have a different perspective on this topic. It’s part of the their job descriptions/comes with that position and one of the most important parts IMO - besides hurricanes, winter weather is the most public disruptive event we have in the weather world. When you work for a Public/government office, public criticism is a necessary aspect for productive improvement! I realize it’s not an easy position but it needs to be a high expectation type position for good reason.

The issues are well documented on here year after year, throw out the GFS and Euro with a dense/shallow Arctic airmass going down spine of Rockies but for some reason, it almost never happens. Sure the event hasn’t happened yet and things can change but you go with the best tools you have, that’s clearly not the GFS/Euro. Regardless of frozen precip or not, I think we all can agree that criticism is warranted for a 30 F temp forecast bust from inside 5 days - FW office had a DFW high temp forecast of 58F Tuesday just two days ago.

Hopefully, this type of dialogue is welcomed on this forum…if not, please send me a PM if you don’t mind

[Ntxw]

If anything we need to criticize the OP GFS and Euro. That's the issue at hand! Einstein says “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” You just can't trust em in these set ups! 37F at DFW airport now and those OPs from YESTERDAY should be 47F+.

[Portastorm]

As long as we adhere to the forum rules, we’re fine. If this can’t be a place for honest dialogue … and we will disagree from time to time … then why bother? Right?!

We can agree to disagree. I know we have a lot of weather to discuss so I don’t want to hijack the thread.

[rwfromkansas]

Decided to do a sub tomorrow just in case. I had a wreck that totaled my car living in West Texas. It snowed a little overnight. A dusting. Interstate fully clear not even a patch, then snow packed and icy off-ramp and I slid into another car that slid down before me. So even patchy ice scares me.

I hope they get on watches/warnings. No pity advisory. Keep people safe.