Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any mind losing in the 6Z GFS meteograms below, only a low of 28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth and a light freeze in Houston. The 00Z Euro is a few degrees colder at 23-26 in the D-FW area and 28-29 across Houston. With any luck, that will be the end of winter.

By the end of the run, the Euro still moves the Polar vortex out of the picture, replaced by a split-flow pattern with the jet stream screaming across the southern U.S. That should be good for increasing rainfall across the south.

hahaha, so 20-25 deg F below normal for a 8 DAY stretch isn't losing it's mind ? The Negative EPO is showing signs of tanking once again, your hopes of the end of winter anytime soon are fading my friend...us cold mongers just might catch this hail mary to send it into overtime!

No, I'd say that a light freeze in Houston isn't unheard of in February. If the Euro was forecasting teens for Houston and single digits in Dallas I'd say it's losing its mind. I'm pretty sure that will be the last freeze we see in Houston this winter (if it materializes). I'm not expecting any 80s through at least mid March. I think that the split-flow pattern will bring increased predip and a little below normal temps across Texas through at least then.

[orangeblood]

FW needs to start considering putting up winter storm watches soon for North Texas. Warm nose is looking less impressive each run and up to half in liquid equivalent with temps dropping to upper 20s, that could be a high impact event Sunday night into Monday and light icing possible Tuesday.

100% agree, we've seen this song and dance before...have you looked at last night's Ukmet ? it has much more lift with the disturbance as it moves through Monday morning under sub 30F air..... 0.5 inch during that 6 hour stretch bringing snow/sleet totals to 3-5 inches across a big chunk of North Texas.

[Portastorm]

Here's a screenshot of the 00Z Euro's coldest temps across Texas next Sunday. Mid 20s AUS/SAT, low-mid 20s DFW, upper 20s Houston area. The "mother of all Arctic airmasses"? Hardly, maybe a third cousin...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosun.JPG

Easy fella ... I said the "mother lode" of Arctic air, not the mother of all Arctic air masses. There is a difference and one can clearly see by looking at that Euro run that, indeed, the coldest air from regions to our north dives right down into the middle of the CONUS.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

...A COLD POST FRONTAL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY DURG THE DAYTIME...WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OVER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIALLY AS FRZG RAIN UNTIL WARM NOSE ALOFT DISAPPEARS WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. DEEP SUBFREEZING MOISTURE LAYERS ON MONDAY MAY HOLD TEMPS TO BELOW FRZG THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SLEET AND SNOW TO AND POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION....BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM THE NORTH MONDAY EVE. TEMPS TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD IN THIS DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX FOR LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.

[Ntxw]

100% agree, we've seen this song and dance before...have you looked at last night's Ukmet ? it has much more lift with the disturbance as it moves through Monday morning under sub 30F air..... 0.5 inch during that 6 hour stretch bringing snow/sleet totals to 3-5 inches across a big chunk of North Texas.

Yes, 850s and 925mb temperatures are already shown below 0C by Sunday afternoon with ground temps in the upper 30s. It is quite possible the front may arrive much sooner and temps fall faster we are talking only two days away. They need to be proactive because if this is sleet and snow (especially if the sleet is true) it would make for a headache commute Monday morning.

And within this air mass it remains cold and a few rounds of light wintry precip throughout the week. Maybe another storm late week.

[dhweather]

I don't envy KFWD at all right now. My gut says they let 12Z come in before raising alerts above what they have right now.

This is yet another one of those situations where 2-3 degrees in temperatures will have a huge impact on relative local conditions.

Also, I'm not sold completely on lift or moisture availability. Could be cold and cloudy , light drizzle. Could be sleet or freezing rain.

[Ntxw]

I don't envy KFWD at all right now. My gut says they let 12Z come in before raising alerts above what they have right now.

This is yet another one of those situations where 2-3 degrees in temperatures will have a huge impact on relative local conditions.

Also, I'm not sold completely on lift or moisture availability. Could be cold and cloudy , light drizzle. Could be sleet or freezing rain.

The moisture possibility is always a concern it's probably the worst forecasting element for models and will determine the severity of this storm. I don't think the situation will be 1 or 2 degree difference it will be plenty cold a few hours after frontal passage it's not marginal going into upper 20s. Towards the end of the event upper soundings looks like a wet snow or snow/sleet mix. It is how much qpf from a light event to a major event.

[weatherdude1108]

Based on the EWX AFD this morning, there is a hint that the air mass may be more moist at the surface this go around down here, reducing any wet-bulb cooling, thereby reducing whatever frozen chances we have. Then there is a question about the amount of QPF available, maybe getting drizzle at best. Then the latest lone wolf model shows a healthy QPF where it didn't before. Silly computers.
Who knows? I'm tired of Winter teases.

Bring on split flow, Spring rains, and regular MCSs.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015/
OUR NEXT BIG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE WIND SHIFT PROGGED TO BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW QUICKLY RECOVERS TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE AS CAA BECOMES STRONGEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE QUESTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...IS HOW COLD
WILL THE TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND HOW FAR SOUTH. SIMILAR EVENTS
SUCH AS THIS...WITH STRONG SFC CAA AND COMPETING SOUTHERLY 850 MB
FLOW AND OVERRUNNING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR SFC TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO WHAT GUIDANCE HAS ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PLENTY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO THE POTENTIAL FOR WET BULBING
APPEARS TO BE SLIM...SO THE CAA WILL BE COMPETING WITH CLOUDY
SKIES...A MOIST COLUMN BEING FED BY SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW...AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY WARM. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ECMWF LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A COLD RAIN BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE A BIT COLDER JUST OFF THE SURFACE. SO DID NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING THE WINTRY PRECIP THAT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INCLUDED. STILL THINK QPF VALUES WILL BE LOW AND
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY.

A COLD WET DAY WILL PERSIST MONDAY AS THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN
CONTINUES. TUESDAY NIGHT DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT COLDER ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WITH MODELS SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGERING...HAD
TO INCLUDE WINTRY PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...ON THE
ESCARPMENT AND SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE
QUESTION HERE ISNT SO MUCH THE TEMPERATURES BUT WHETHER OR NOT WE
GET ANY QPF. THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE AREA SO
THIS MAY JUST BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING. STILL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT BEING THE SECOND DAY OF
COLD TEMPERATURES...SOME SPOTS MAY BECOME SLICK OF QPF DOES
DEVELOP.

ITS AT THIS POINT THAT SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS IN THE
GFS AND EURO. IN GENERAL...A CLOSED LOW HOVERING OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WILL PHASE WITH CANADIAN TROUGHING AND BEGIN TO
TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COINCIDES WITH THE
CANADIAN TROUGH AXIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE GFS AND IF
SO...WOULD PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY QPF. THIS IS STARKLY DIFFERENT
FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOWEVER AND A NEW DEVELOPMENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE LEFT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS IS AND ONLY
ADJUSTED TO MESH WITH NEIGHBORS FOR NOW.

&&

[Portastorm]

Always a good idea to use all of the tools in our toolbox. For the Monday event, we're now in the wheelhouse for shorter range ensemble models like the SREF. I would encourage folks to check out the 9z run of that model. It's much colder than other guidance I have seen and raises an eyebrow or two about the possibility of wintry weather extending well south into south central/southeast Texas.

Oh, and here's a shout out to srainhoutx who alerted me regarding the latest SREF. I completely forgot about checking it out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_PMSL_1000-500_THK_BLW_

[TheProfessor]

I'm seeing qpf amounts from about .5-.75 of an inch through out a quite a few models. If we can get the warm nose to go away faster than being modeled we could actually have a pretty decent snow storm in North Texas. The thing that interests me the most is if we got enough ice/snow to keep are temperatures close or below freezing for most of the week and then have more wintery weather on top of what we already had.

[Texas Snowman]

Very interesting morning of winter weather across the nation. May not be in Texas (yet), but amazing to see some of these things on my Twitter feed.

*Average temperature in U.S. this morning? 24.9 degrees.

* 11 degrees at the launch of the Bassmaster Classic fishing tournament this morning on Lake Hartwell in South Carolina.

* Interstate 20 shut down at a spot or two in Mississippi due to ice. Freezing rain in Jackson, MS. Big ice storm forecast in Nashville. Schools closed in Memphis. Freezing rain southern Alabama per Mobile NWS.

* Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, all reporting stations below zero overnight. Nearly the entire state of Kentucky near or below zero degrees this morning. Kentucky Mesonet shows central part of state at -32 degrees this morning.

* More than 60 record lows this morning, even a couple of all-time lows. Lynchburg, Va. bottomed out at -11 this morning.

* Eastport, Maine's 6.4" from their current storm brings them to 115.6 inches of snow from Jan. 25 until now.

*Temps as low as 32 degrees in some of the fringes of the Florida Everglades. 39 degrees in Santa Clara, CUBA.

* Up to two feet (or more) of snow coming to parts of Colorado this weekend.

Wow.

[gboudx]

My kids are already asking if they'll have school on Monday. Which brings up a good thought; if this wintry precip occurs, I hope it starts early Sunday night/early Monday morning so the ISD's decision is easier to close. We don't need a repeat of passed events where they decided to close early after wintry precip started.

[TheProfessor]

especially now that I'm in charge of taking me and my sister to and from school. It's a good thing I know some good back roads in case of ice.

[wxman57]

My kids are already asking if they'll have school on Monday. Which brings up a good thought; if this wintry precip occurs, I hope it starts early Sunday night/early Monday morning so the ISD's decision is easier to close. We don't need a repeat of passed events where they decided to close early after wintry precip started.

I think there is an excellent chance that there will be ice on the roadways (at least elevated streets) in your area on Monday. Any freezing rain/sleet may not start until the early morning hours on Monday, possibly late Sunday evening. I would say that schools will be closed on Monday.

[TexasStorm]

Why do I feel Lucy is not only going to pull the ball out she is going to run and spike the ball in the end zone afterwards.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is my meteogram for DFW from the 06Z GFS:



Notice that the 850mb temps are below 35 so that is very close to a snow profile for Monday. The warm nose is definitely trending weaker for DFW as shown on this skew-T for Monday morning.



That is very close to showing a pretty good snow.

Here is the meteogram for my place.



The surface here looks even colder, but it is warmer aloft so more of a sleet/freezing rain event here.

Looks like we will have another pulse of what looks like freezing rain for Tue night. The weekend storm will be a close call so we will have to watch how the temperature profiles evolve.

[orangeblood]

The 12Z GFS increases the threat of this winter storm, over 0.4 to 0.6 inch QPF across a wider swath of North Texas....then another round on Tuesday with the main system ejecting out of the southwest. Would expect winter storm watches to be issued later today/tonight!!

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS looks pretty similar for Monday and it looks wetter on for the midweek system. Watch for the winter precip to start as early as Sunday afternoon over NW North Texas. For areas east of I-35 the surface cold will be delayed by the Ouachita Mountains, but when that dam breaks this area will end up the coldest as the high will be off to our NE.

[wxman57]

I don't believe that winter storm watches must be issued 48 hours in advance. Is there such a criterion? I'd think maybe a watch would be issued Saturday afternoon.

Looking at the 12Z GFS coming in. It has temps in the D-FW metroplex falling below 32F between 3am and 6am Monday.

[orangeblood]

I don't believe that winter storm watches must be issued 48 hours in advance. Is there such a criterion? I'd think maybe a watch would be issued Saturday afternoon.

Looking at the 12Z GFS coming in. It has temps in the D-FW metroplex falling below 32F between 3am and 6am Monday.

Latest GFS MOS guidance has DFW falling to 32F by midnight....the way the models are trending, I would expect it to be earlier than that.

Late next week's storms looks just as potent!!!

Then the Arctic onslaught continues into March....yikes, GFS is fully onboard for late season heroics around these parts