Texas Winter 2020-2021

[somethingfunny]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens? the eastern half of the state WFOs (I-35 east) have yet to record one.

Has DFW ever been under a blizzard warning?

DFW proper no. I think the far western counties may have in the Xmas Eve 09 event. Or if not I think they did both "winter storm warning+high wind warning" which I thought was odd at the time.

FWD has never issued one.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not much new to add based on the 18z models so far. GFS is likely too warm. Favoring a blend of the Euro, Canadian, and ICON right now, which bring some ice and snow accumulations down to Victoria and Houston.

Yeah, the defeatist or trolling posts are annoying when they can't back up claims. This board is DFW centric with a lesser focus on Austin/Houston.

What I posted wasn't a defeatest post, nor was it a troll. I've posted on this board regularly since 2005, this might be the first time I've been called a troll. My post referenced the old saying, no news is good news or certainly neutral. If the forecast for Houston were to drastically change, this thread would be filled with Houston posters, of which there are a lot, talking about this being a bust. There isn't.

I misinterpreted your post then. I apologize. You sounded as if Houston was being excluded from the Winter Storm which couldn't be further from the truth. I actually think Houston will be the worst hit due to the amount of ice coming....

[Ntxw]

We're not out of the woods yet (but we know this). 6-10 day continues cold in the Southern Plains and west of the lower MS River Valley.

[SnowintheFalls]

Has DFW ever been under a blizzard warning?

DFW proper no. I think the far western counties may have in the Xmas Eve 09 event. Or if not I think they did both "winter storm warning+high wind warning" which I thought was odd at the time.

FWD has never issued one.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/plot/92/phenomena:BZ::significance:W::dpi:100.png

I remember the 09 blizzard warning in Wichita Falls but that is the only one I ever remember in my lifetime. Local mets seem to be staying conservative and have even said we are not looking at anything that extreme for our area.

[TheAustinMan]

Plotted the 18z GFS temperature forecast and a few recent temperatures at Camp Mabry here in Austin to compare against a few historical cold snaps. For the moment it looks like December 1983 will notch a lower 7-day temperature average here, but things can still change (and by quite a lot!) over the next week.

Source: Plotted by me in Excel, data from Iowa Mesonet for the Texas ASOS

[Texas Snowman]

Has DFW ever been under a blizzard warning?

DFW proper no. I think the far western counties may have in the Xmas Eve 09 event. Or if not I think they did both "winter storm warning+high wind warning" which I thought was odd at the time.

FWD has never issued one.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/plot/92/phenomena:BZ::significance:W::dpi:100.png

I seem to recall that during the December 1983 freeze, there was the thought that a true blizzard might be possible here in North Texas as a system came through, but it didn't materialize.

During that cold wave, I was a high school senior listening to WBAP 820 (a clear channel frequency) at my grandparent's home in Memphis, TN. I vividly remember being upset, thinking that I couldn't believe an official NWS declared blizzard might happen in Denison and I wouldn't be there to see it happen. It was either Harold Taft, David Finfrock, or Scott Chesner talking about it during their evening forecast discussion after the 5 p.m. news one evening.

I believe it was the Valentine's Day snowstorm in 2004 where it snowed heavily enough up here along the Red River that Fort Worth NWS either discussed or briefly put Grayson County under a Heavy Snow Warning.

Interesting to see if a Blizzard Warning might actually happen this time in North Texas. Crazy to believe that a few weeks ago, some on this board were actually mentioining "Winter Cancel!" Pretty unbelievable where we are now.

[Ntxw]

Interesting to see if a Blizzard Warning might actually happen this time in North Texas. Crazy to believe that a few weeks ago, some on this board were actually mentioining "Winter Cancel!" Pretty unbelievable where we are now.

I would like to see one issued if warranted and not the high wind advisory+ winter storm warning stuff that bypasses it. But whether or not we get one doesn't change the possible conditions that the temperature gradient between the modified air and incoming severe Arctic (changing in air mass) would generate very strong winds during the snow, most in the region will experience it for some hours. Most of the time the duration is the issue, needs to last 3+ hours.

And the good news, we won't waste any snow the moment it falls it will stick on everything. As the Arctic boundary (region of baroclinic instability) hits the temp drop will be dramatic. Something like mid 20s right down to low teens in a matter of a few counties.

[SnowintheFalls]

DFW proper no. I think the far western counties may have in the Xmas Eve 09 event. Or if not I think they did both "winter storm warning+high wind warning" which I thought was odd at the time.

FWD has never issued one.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/plot/92/phenomena:BZ::significance:W::dpi:100.png

I seem to recall that during the December 1983 freeze, there was the thought that a true blizzard might be possible here in North Texas as a system came through, but it didn't materialize.

During that cold wave, I was a high school senior listening to WBAP 820 (a clear channel frequency) at my grandparent's home in Memphis, TN. I vividly remember being upset, thinking that I couldn't believe an official NWS declared blizzard might happen in Denison and I wouldn't be there to see it happen. It was either Harold Taft, David Finfrock, or Scott Chesner talking about it during their evening forecast discussion after the 5 p.m. news one evening.

I believe it was the Valentine's Day snowstorm in 2004 where it snowed heavily enough up here along the Red River that Fort Worth NWS either discussed or briefly put Grayson County under a Heavy Snow Warning.

Interesting to see if a Blizzard Warning might actually happen this time in North Texas. Crazy to believe that a few weeks ago, some on this board were actually mentioining "Winter Cancel!" Pretty unbelievable where we are now.

It did look pretty dire when the models lost this pattern. We have been hyped up and let down more times than not by the models. It can be tough to temper enthusiasm when model watching at times.

[Haris]

I’m very confident it’ll snow at least 1-3” in Austin. Globals are just tooo warm.

I am at 28F after a high of 30. I busted 12-20 degrees per every global model

[Quixotic]

So with the forecast FW put out, clearly they are going to utilize winter storm warnings for the event by default with the amounts. Any bets if the elusive blizzard warning happens?

the eastern half of the state WFOs (I-35 east) have yet to record one.

I don’t think they’ve ever declared one officially. Right? I think Christmas Eve 2009 it got as close as wise.

[Iceresistance]

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

I've already got all preparations ready to go for this storm, it's going to be BIG for sure!

[Ntxw]

Here is the afternoon discussion from the WPC of heavy snow possibilities. And I bet it is probably why some of the WFOs were willing to put out the watches so early (relative to confidence and historical tendencies).

...Central and Southern Plains...
Days 1-3...

A potent upper jet streak approaching 150kts will race across the
Northern Plains Friday leaving favorable RRQ diffluence for ascent
across the Central Plains. Some additional ascent is likely
through the ageostrophic fgen response to this jet streak, and a
band of moderate to heavy snow is likely to spread from the High
Plains of Nebraska D1 towards Chicago on D2. WPC probabilities
within this band are as high as 50% for 4 inches despite limited
QPF due to intense ascent and SLRs that could reach 25:1.

A more significant storm system will develop D3 as the shortwave
dropping out of the Pacific Northwest advects towards the Four
Corners and develops a neutral tilt. As this occurs, the longwave
trough moving across the West drives downstream jet development,
with a coupled jet structure likely forming over the Central
Plains Sunday morning. The combination of these features will
drive surface low development over West Texas or even as far south
as Mexico. WAA ahead of this feature will become robust, with 290K
isentropic upglide intensifying atop the cold surge of arctic high
pressure. An exceptionally cold column will lead to SLRs that are
nearly 20:1, and the WAA combined with the deep layer omega should
produce a swath of moderate to heavy snow expanding southeast from
Nebraska trough the Texas Panhandle Sunday. WPC probabilities for
this event are already above 40% for 6 inches in parts of
KS/OK/TX, with significantly more possible. South of the heaviest
snow, some light freezing rain is possible in SE TX and northern
LA, locations that do not typically receive wintry precipitation.

[Brandon8181]

I'm trying to figure out why the forecasted NWS low for Tyler, TX tonight is 31, but the temperature is already 29. It's only 7 p.m. Couldn't they update the forecast accordingly?

[BigD938]

Could you put this in dummy terms for me, I’m still trying to learn what all this means

Here is the afternoon discussion from the WPC of heavy snow possibilities. And I bet it is probably why some of the WFOs were willing to put out the watches so early (relative to confidence and historical tendencies).

...Central and Southern Plains...
Days 1-3...

A potent upper jet streak approaching 150kts will race across the
Northern Plains Friday leaving favorable RRQ diffluence for ascent
across the Central Plains. Some additional ascent is likely
through the ageostrophic fgen response to this jet streak, and a
band of moderate to heavy snow is likely to spread from the High
Plains of Nebraska D1 towards Chicago on D2. WPC probabilities
within this band are as high as 50% for 4 inches despite limited
QPF due to intense ascent and SLRs that could reach 25:1.

A more significant storm system will develop D3 as the shortwave
dropping out of the Pacific Northwest advects towards the Four
Corners and develops a neutral tilt. As this occurs, the longwave
trough moving across the West drives downstream jet development,
with a coupled jet structure likely forming over the Central
Plains Sunday morning. The combination of these features will
drive surface low development over West Texas or even as far south
as Mexico. WAA ahead of this feature will become robust, with 290K
isentropic upglide intensifying atop the cold surge of arctic high
pressure. An exceptionally cold column will lead to SLRs that are
nearly 20:1, and the WAA combined with the deep layer omega should
produce a swath of moderate to heavy snow expanding southeast from
Nebraska trough the Texas Panhandle Sunday. WPC probabilities for
this event are already above 40% for 6 inches in parts of
KS/OK/TX, with significantly more possible. South of the heaviest
snow, some light freezing rain is possible in SE TX and northern
LA, locations that do not typically receive wintry precipitation.

[jasons2k]

DFW proper no. I think the far western counties may have in the Xmas Eve 09 event. Or if not I think they did both "winter storm warning+high wind warning" which I thought was odd at the time.

FWD has never issued one.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/plot/92/phenomena:BZ::significance:W::dpi:100.png

I seem to recall that during the December 1983 freeze, there was the thought that a true blizzard might be possible here in North Texas as a system came through, but it didn't materialize.

During that cold wave, I was a high school senior listening to WBAP 820 (a clear channel frequency) at my grandparent's home in Memphis, TN. I vividly remember being upset, thinking that I couldn't believe an official NWS declared blizzard might happen in Denison and I wouldn't be there to see it happen. It was either Harold Taft, David Finfrock, or Scott Chesner talking about it during their evening forecast discussion after the 5 p.m. news one evening.

I believe it was the Valentine's Day snowstorm in 2004 where it snowed heavily enough up here along the Red River that Fort Worth NWS either discussed or briefly put Grayson County under a Heavy Snow Warning.

Interesting to see if a Blizzard Warning might actually happen this time in North Texas. Crazy to believe that a few weeks ago, some on this board were actually mentioning "Winter Cancel!" Pretty unbelievable where we are now.

That brings back some memories! I was in Tampa for the '83 freeze. Roy Leep at WTVT was the go-to in that market. That freeze was just devastating for Florida. The palm tree and citrus loss was incredible.

We moved to Plano in 1988. I was in the 8th grade. Harold Taft was a god to me - and don't forget the daily video intro from Jimmy Darnell. Good stuff - classic Americana.

I didn't have much experience with winter weather until then and it was so fascinating to me. I would go outside and feel the fence pickets to see if there was any glaze - weather-geeky stuff like that. I would listen to Harold on WBAP 820 all day and then watch him on Channel 5 at night. I appreciated his respect for scientific accuracy. God rest his soul, one of the greatest, ever. Hard to believe, but I remember vividly when Finfrock and Chesner were the *only* backup OCMs at Channel 5. Those three ran the show 24/7 and my goodness, those guys were accurate and trusted. No nonsense. Rather, educational briefings of the situation.

They were half TV weathermen and half professor for the laymen all at once.

This was before the days of Rebecca and the hiring of a dozen rotating OCMs every year - hehe. Ahh, the old days....if you weren't around back then, you just don't understand what it was like (sorry).

I remember the 1989 events well. We had a crazy start (I think it was '89 - geez) in February and even into March. The natural gas curtailments. The school closures - not just from precipitation, but from the cold and gas curtailments. It was a wild welcome to North Texas, that's for sure. I became familiar with the term "blue norther'" real fast.

In December 1989, my grandparents, who lived in Spring, came up to visit over the holidays. When they got home, they arrived to a flooded house from busted pipes. Thankfully a neighbor got it shut off while they were out of town. I'm afraid many folks across Texas are going to have a similar experience with this cold snap.

[AubreyStorm]

Winter is Coming......!! ❄️

[cstrunk]

I'm trying to figure out why the forecasted NWS low for Tyler, TX tonight is 31, but the temperature is already 29. It's only 7 p.m. Couldn't they update the forecast accordingly?

Yeah, NWS Shreveport is behind the ball on these temps and has been since the front arrived. Seems like they are mostly sticking to models/guidance, even though their discussion mentions being on the lower end.

[Brandon8181]

I'm trying to figure out why the forecasted NWS low for Tyler, TX tonight is 31, but the temperature is already 29. It's only 7 p.m. Couldn't they update the forecast accordingly?

Yeah, NWS Shreveport is behind the ball on these temps and has been since the front arrived. Seems like they are mostly sticking to models/guidance, even though their discussion mentions being on the lower end.

Very interesting, when model guidance continues to bust, you think they would modify their thinking with it all being in the same time frame. Just as temperatures busted today with an original high forecasted of 36-38, but it didn't get above 30-32.

[Brandon8181]

@ Cstrunk, do you really think we are going to hit 37 tomorrow? That is the forecasted high for Tyler, tomorrow.

[HockeyTx82]

Winter is Coming......!! ❄️

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Et_S617XMAUjS6q.jpg

Meh, not impressed. Call me when we get below 0, until then