Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

Winter is Coming......!! ❄️

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Et_S617XMAUjS6q.jpg

Meh, not impressed. Call me when we get below 0, until then

I'm expecting down to -15°F

With a Wind Chill down -30°F

[Haris]

I’m gonna put it bluntly, if that 0z HRRR verifies. Austin is screwed. 27F thru sat and freezing rain 24/7. Disaster unfolding

[Ntxw]

Could you put this in dummy terms for me, I’m still trying to learn what all this means

Here is the afternoon discussion from the WPC of heavy snow possibilities. And I bet it is probably why some of the WFOs were willing to put out the watches so early (relative to confidence and historical tendencies).

I was pointing out how the national forecast (agency) can often aid (or used by) local WFO to boost their confidence. The two are often linked, for consistency local WFOs likes statistical blends as forecast and such. To say there is no corroboration by the agencies is unlikely in my opinion.

As far as discussion variables changing such as track, surface low movement, and underestimate (or overestimate) the Pacific moisture is all possibilities.

[bubba hotep]

You just don't see panels like this for DFW! Usually we are trying to tease out a cluster or two of favorable solutions...

[Ntxw]

You just don't see panels like this for DFW! Usually we are trying to tease out a cluster or two of favorable solutions...

https://i.ibb.co/zn38QQm/GEFS.png

https://i.ibb.co/WKbN4YH/12z-EPSM211.png

If we can't get 2" of snow out of this set up. It might as well just never snow again. EVER.

[TexasSam]

Extreme cold weather expected to result in record electric use in ERCOT region

Consumers can stay current on grid conditions by downloading the ERCOT app and following ERCOT on Twitter

AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

If this posted more than once... sorry It's been a long time.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm trying to figure out why the forecasted NWS low for Tyler, TX tonight is 31, but the temperature is already 29. It's only 7 p.m. Couldn't they update the forecast accordingly?

Yeah, NWS Shreveport is behind the ball on these temps and has been since the front arrived. Seems like they are mostly sticking to models/guidance, even though their discussion mentions being on the lower end.

Very interesting, when model guidance continues to bust, you think they would modify their thinking with it all being in the same time frame. Just as temperatures busted today with an original high forecasted of 36-38, but it didn't get above 30-32.

I am not sure Lindale ever got to since it dropped there this morning. Lindale's forecasted low is 29 though we are at 27 now. Light freezing rain still ongoing and likely to continue at least in a scattered nature into tomorrow. So far accumulations have been minor though I-20 and Loop 49 bridges have been icy at times. With the sun going down ice may accrete more efficiently so care should be taken on area roads.

[TexasSam]

You just don't see panels like this for DFW! Usually we are trying to tease out a cluster or two of favorable solutions...

https://i.ibb.co/zn38QQm/GEFS.png

https://i.ibb.co/WKbN4YH/12z-EPSM211.png

If we can't get 2" of snow out of this set up. It might as well just never snow again. EVER.

Looks nice, what is it? Why are those 50 members perturbed? Lol

[cheezyWXguy]

Could you put this in dummy terms for me, I’m still trying to learn what all this means

Here is the afternoon discussion from the WPC of heavy snow possibilities. And I bet it is probably why some of the WFOs were willing to put out the watches so early (relative to confidence and historical tendencies).

...Central and Southern Plains...
Days 1-3...

A potent upper jet streak approaching 150kts will race across the
Northern Plains Friday leaving favorable RRQ diffluence for ascent
across the Central Plains. Some additional ascent is likely
through the ageostrophic fgen response to this jet streak, and a
band of moderate to heavy snow is likely to spread from the High
Plains of Nebraska D1 towards Chicago on D2. WPC probabilities
within this band are as high as 50% for 4 inches despite limited
QPF due to intense ascent and SLRs that could reach 25:1.

A more significant storm system will develop D3 as the shortwave
dropping out of the Pacific Northwest advects towards the Four
Corners and develops a neutral tilt. As this occurs, the longwave
trough moving across the West drives downstream jet development,
with a coupled jet structure likely forming over the Central
Plains Sunday morning. The combination of these features will
drive surface low development over West Texas or even as far south
as Mexico. WAA ahead of this feature will become robust, with 290K
isentropic upglide intensifying atop the cold surge of arctic high
pressure. An exceptionally cold column will lead to SLRs that are
nearly 20:1, and the WAA combined with the deep layer omega should
produce a swath of moderate to heavy snow expanding southeast from
Nebraska trough the Texas Panhandle Sunday. WPC probabilities for
this event are already above 40% for 6 inches in parts of
KS/OK/TX, with significantly more possible. South of the heaviest
snow, some light freezing rain is possible in SE TX and northern
LA, locations that do not typically receive wintry precipitation.

The bottom line is that there is a high probability this storm will produce significant snow totals in very cold weather from most of Texas to Nebraska.

The clash between the southward surging arctic air from the north and relatively moderated air to the south will fuel a very strong storm system. Due to how cold this arctic air is, most or all precip that falls within it will be very fluffy, powdery snow, and only a small amount of precipital water is needed to produce a large amount of snow (SLR, or snow-liquid ratio, of 20:1 means it would take 1 inch of liquid to produce 20 inches of snow. This is anomalous as the average is 10:1)

[Ralph's Weather]

Extreme cold weather expected to result in record electric use in ERCOT region

Consumers can stay current on grid conditions by downloading the ERCOT app and following ERCOT on Twitter

AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

If this posted more than once... sorry It's been a long time.

I am definitely concerned about the potential stresses on the electrical grid from usage as well as from precipitation. Power failures will greatly exacerbate human and animal hardships as well as damage to property.

[orangeblood]

Extreme cold weather expected to result in record electric use in ERCOT region

Consumers can stay current on grid conditions by downloading the ERCOT app and following ERCOT on Twitter

AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

If this posted more than once... sorry It's been a long time.

I am definitely concerned about the potential stresses on the electrical grid from usage as well as from precipitation. Power failures will greatly exacerbate human and animal hardships as well as damage to property.

Extremely thankful for Fossil Fuels in times like these....don’t think we’ll get much support from our Wind Turbines in west Texas with an Arctic HP parked over them Tuesday morning!!

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I’m kind of a rookie. When it comes to Winter Weather accuracy, which Global Model is the most accurate?

[Tireman4]

Were gonna die! Lol

[Ntxw]

0z NAM looks like it's trying to juice up the Saturday system (was far south and dry before). Sleet and some snow early. Guidance has been trending wetter for this little feature.

[TropicalTundra]

This is actually dangerous. NAM has me below freezing the entire time until the Sunday-Monday storm which means all the ice outside right now won’t melt. Combine that with strong north winds, gusting snow, and ultra low temperatures, this could easily turn bad quick. Thankfully I’m all prepared so I should be okay.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z NAM looks like it's trying to juice up the Saturday system (was far south and dry before). Sleet and some snow early. Guidance has been trending wetter for this little feature.

This is gonna be a big run. Not only is the Saturday system stronger, but the Sunday night system is slower and stronger

[Ntxw]

NAM took a good direction compared to 18z.

[Haris]

27 now. Wow

[DeltaV]

TWC is showing freezing rain tonight in Plano, that can't be right, can it?

[Texas Snow]

TWC is showing freezing rain tonight in Plano, that can't be right, can it?

Here’s a good rule of thumb for future forecasts, just read the NWS and delete TWC app.