Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

Latest extended HRRR with convective frz rain/maybe sleet bands forming late Monday night….with ground temps cooling quickly now, this could get ugly on area roads Tuesday

[Iceresistance]

It's a pleasant 77F here in SW Houston today. My wall is doing its job.

It's only the Houston Wall that is doing its job, all others have toppled.

[Haris]

This is really looking ugly for the north half of the state. Def gonna give December 2013 a run for its money.

Also every hires model is running too warm by 3-5F, so take that fwiw

[Ralph's Weather]

Henderson County just outside the WSW. Maybe it will be expanded to the east when system arrives.

I would expect western East Texas to be added tomorrow. Our impacts will come later than I35 corridor so they can wait.

[Iceresistance]

This is really looking ugly for the north half of the state. Def gonna give December 2013 a run for its money.

Also every hires model is running too warm by 3-5F, so take that fwiw

I hope it's not a repeat of that for me.

[bubba hotep]

Latest extended HRRR with convective frz rain/maybe sleet bands forming late Monday night….with ground temps cooling quickly now, this could get ugly on area roads Tuesday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1675015200/1675159200-p2xt43AcWxc.png

Taken verbatim, heavier rates probably aren't freezing rain and could actually melt any ice that has formed. Temps around DFW are 30-31F with a wicked warm layer.



Now, areas west of DFW probably have some issues, and that is where warning criteria might be met.

[rwfromkansas]

Time to start paying attention to ISD"s and potential closures.

Usually my district Keller sends out a “reminder on weather closure procedures” first but nothing yet in employee email.

[orangeblood]

Latest extended HRRR with convective frz rain/maybe sleet bands forming late Monday night….with ground temps cooling quickly now, this could get ugly on area roads Tuesday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1675015200/1675159200-p2xt43AcWxc.png

Taken verbatim, heavier rates probably aren't freezing rain and could actually melt any ice that has formed. Temps around DFW are 30-31F with a wicked warm layer.

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2023012918_040_32.81--96.99.png

Now, areas west of DFW probably have some issues, and that is where warning criteria might be met.

FW office believes this could be sleet according to their latest discussion…particularly due to every model over warming almost all layers

[txtwister78]

The "good thing" so far is based on the latest HRRR/NAM, not seeing temps inside the major cities drop below 30 degrees for long (AUS/SA get to 30-32 in western/northern areas). DFW for now doesn't drop below 30 degrees in long duration (perhaps a few hours).

Temps will probably hover and even rise a few degrees as mentioned yesterday as the precip picks up from the south and so for hopefully this stays more bridges/overpasses up in DFW (which can still be a big problem for obvious reasons) but right now I don't see this becoming a major ice event for the surface roads/sidewalks etc with temps being what they're forecasted to be thus far along with soil temps being warm out ahead of this. Hill Country (Areas north & west of SA/Aus) and areas to the west of the Metroplex could experience more widespread difficulties I think where the surface temps will stay in the mid to upper 20's for a much longer period.

Tuesday night into early Wed morning is probably going to end up being the "main event" with this setup for most locations.

[bubba hotep]

Latest extended HRRR with convective frz rain/maybe sleet bands forming late Monday night….with ground temps cooling quickly now, this could get ugly on area roads Tuesday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1675015200/1675159200-p2xt43AcWxc.png

Taken verbatim, heavier rates probably aren't freezing rain and could actually melt any ice that has formed. Temps around DFW are 30-31F with a wicked warm layer.

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2023012918_040_32.81--96.99.png

Now, areas west of DFW probably have some issues, and that is where warning criteria might be met.

FW office believes this could be sleet according to their latest discussion…particularly due to every model over warming almost all layers

Interesting, when comparing the 18z to the 12z, the warm layer is a bit deeper and the cold layer a bit shallower. Very tough forecast for DFW.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1619791731242983424

[orangeblood]

The "good thing" so far is based on the latest HRRR/NAM, not seeing temps inside the major cities drop below 30 degrees for long (AUS/SA get to 30-32 in western/northern areas). DFW for now doesn't drop below 30 degrees in long duration (perhaps a few hours).

Temps will probably hover and even rise a few degrees as mentioned yesterday as the precip picks up from the south and so for hopefully this stays more bridges/overpasses up in DFW (which can still be a big problem for obvious reasons) but right now I don't see this becoming a major ice event for the surface roads/sidewalks etc with temps being what they're forecasted to be thus far along with soil temps being warm out ahead of this. Hill Country (Areas north & west of SA/Aus) and areas to the west of the Metroplex could experience more widespread difficulties I think where the surface temps will stay in the mid to upper 20's for a much longer period.

Tuesday night into early Wed morning is probably going to end up being the "main event" with this setup for most locations.

But look at its initial readings just a few hours after initiating…it has Metroplex temps ranging from upper 30’s to near 40 at 3pm when actual temps range from 32-35 F. They are all over warming, need to cut by 2-3 F across the board at least IMO

Also, freezing temps 24-36 hrs before an icing event is plenty of time to cool area road ways despite weekend warmth

[cstrunk]

Henderson County just outside the WSW. Maybe it will be expanded to the east when system arrives.

I would expect western East Texas to be added tomorrow. Our impacts will come later than I35 corridor so they can wait.

I still think the Ouachita wall will keep Longview out of it. We'll have to see. Definitely looking like a closer call than even last night.

[Brent]

Way colder than forecast here. Shocker.

There's been some drizzle or maybe tiny snow grains at times but I haven't seen any ice and I've been out all day

[Ntxw]

For DFW the magic numbers is 27-29F for concrete. That's when UHI warmth is overcome even if it was 90F the day before. For elevated surfaces 30-31.

[orangeblood]

For DFW the magic numbers is 27-29F for concrete. That's when UHI warmth is overcome even if it was 90F the day before. For elevated surfaces 30-31.

NAM going majority sleet across DFW



Freezing layer almost up to 900mb level and quite cold (-5C) on Tuesday which maybe be enough to freeze

[rwfromkansas]

Since the UHI effect is more minimal where I am in the far western metro I think 29 is enough here, but if 30, probably will stay an elevated issue.

[wxman57]

It's a pleasant 77F here in SW Houston today. My wall is doing its job.

It's only the Houston Wall that is doing its job, all others have toppled.

That's good enough for me. You can have all the freezing rain you want.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1619791731242983424?s=20&t=oBegDK89bHz225eiu7z9dQ

I wouldn’t be surprised they include Comal & Hays County into this watch. Seems like the only impacts for SA will be anyone north of 410/Balcones Escarpment.

[txtwister78]

https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1619791731242983424?s=20&t=oBegDK89bHz225eiu7z9dQ

I wouldn’t be surprised they include Comal & Hays County into this watch. Seems like the only impacts for SA will be anyone north of 410/Balcones Escarpment.

Yeah big temp difference across Bexar County with these setups. Higher elevation up in the northern areas and so temps will range from 30-35 across the county.