Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Just saw the 00Z GFS - not even a freeze as far south as the D-FW area over the next 16 days.

that right there makes me doubt the GFS

[Haris]

1" of snow on the euro here

[Brent]

next weekend is real close to being more interesting on the Euro

before warm air pushes rain even into frozen Chicago

oh and it most definitely has a freeze at DFW unlike the GFS

[Cpv17]

06z GFS is very interesting, that’s for sure.

[gpsnowman]

Even in crappy winters we always get at least one arctic outbreak. That being said the prairie provinces and the Yukon in Canada are getting colder. Some -40's are showing up this morning with the cold air slowly bleeding southward. Much colder than two days ago. Hopefully this continues to build but where does the cold go? Around and around we go!!!!

[Cerlin]

Man even Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t have much confidence with the rest of winter!

All jokes aside models seem to be trending a little better which is good.

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center in their Experimental Week 3/Week 4 Outlook suggest ENSO Neutral condition likely to continue. A blocking regime does appear to be impacting our potential sensible weather across much of North America including the Lower 48 and Texas. Unusually colder temperatures are expected which does raise an eyebrow in our current climate state. Above normal precipitation across Texas suggests the Sub Tropical Jet will be active as the MJO possibly moves into a more favorable pattern allowing tropical moisture to spread into our part of the World. I will note the our Hurricane Hunters have 2 C-130J's flying research missions out over the Eastern Pacific to sample the Atmospheric River phenomenon. California is being hit again this morning with a potent Pacific Storm. Don't be surprised to see weather news being made across Southern California today into tomorrow.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 01 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 16 2019-Fri Mar 01 2019

The climate background state remains similar to last week, with ENSO-neutral conditions continuing across the Pacific in spite of modest positive SST anomalies. The MJO has remained active, with the enhanced phase currently propagating across the Pacific. There is a large degree of model uncertainty in terms of MJO evolution, with the ECMWF predicting continued eastward propagation overall, while the GEFS favors a more stationary large scale signal over the West-Central Pacific. In either case, there is little evidence of MJO influence in the Week-2 forecast period over the North Pacific, though the consensus Weeks 3-4 forecast circulation is at least broadly consistent with the current MJO evolution. The Weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems and the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), an experimental multi-model ensemble (MME) of both operational and experimental dynamical models as well as statistical model guidance that includes a constructed analog tool and a multiple regression model using MJO, ENSO, and long-term trends as predictors.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutians with some downstream ridging over the far northeastern Pacific or northwestern North America. The ECMWF and CFS are in especially good agreement on the location of an NAO-type dipole over the northwestern Atlantic, with high-latitude blocking inferred near the Davis Strait. Broad anomalous troughing is favored over much of the CONUS.

The Weeks 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of below-normal temperatures for almost all of the CONUS, a rare forecast in the current climate. The objective blend of dynamical and statistical guidance suggests a colder-than-normal pattern will prevail over the central CONUS, slowly pushing eastward relative to the current Week-2 outlook. Above-normal temperatures are favored only over the Florida Peninsula and almost all of Alaska.

The models are in excellent agreement on the overall precipitation pattern as well. An active storm track across the far southern and southeastern CONUS is favored, with an extension into the southern High Plains where upsloping precipitation events are possible. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across the northern tier of the CONUS, as well as over the West Coast and parts of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. The latter is due to a suppressed storm track and anomalous surface high pressure. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies forecast near the Aleutians favors above-normal precipitation over much of southern Alaska.

Sea surface temperatures near Hawaii are currently near normal, and model guidance is mixed, though the SubX model suite favors a tilt toward above-normal temperatures over the eastern islands. There is better model agreement on the precipitation outlook, with below-normal precipitation most likely especially over the western Hawaiian Islands.

[wxman57]

1" of snow on the euro here

Note that it also has temps well above freezing in that area. Similar to the past couple of events. A forecast of patches of trace amounts in the post-frontal band of precip are not a good indicator of significant snow. Significant snow events here usually occur when the cold air is already in place and we have a passing disturbance that generates the snow in the sub-freezing airmass.

In other news, I like Punxsutawney Phil.

[1900hurricane]

I know people are fairly hung up on frozen precipitation (it is that season I guess), but it may be worth keeping an eye out for some severe weather chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Besides, it's not too long until that will be the primary topic of conversation.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020802
SPC AC 020802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Sat Feb 02 2019

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The pattern over the Lower 48 states will become more active for
thunderstorms and severe potential during the Wednesday-Thursday
(days 5-6) period as a potent mid-level trough moves from the
western U.S. into the Great Plains/MS Valley. Medium-range models
continue to show significant run-to-run variability so ascertaining
where a potential area of interest for severe remains difficult.
However, it seems likely surface cyclogenesis will occur in the
central Great Plains with subsequent surface low development
probably east-northeastward into the middle MS Valley/lower OH
Valley on Thursday (day 6). As such, strong storm development may
occur from northeast TX/eastern half of OK into the ArkLaTex/Ozark
Plateau and farther east into the MS Valley and possibly the lower
OH Valley. Details concerning intensity/coverage of stronger storms
remain nebulous at this time given the model variability.

..Smith.. 02/02/2019

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1091413029969973249




 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1091507957433479168

[wxman57]

For those of you here who love winter and winter weather, and who saw the forecast of an early spring from Punxsutawney Phil, I thought you might find today's "Ziggy" cartoon funny. I did. Take solace in the fact that he's only "right" 40% of the time, though it's such a vague forecast that I'm not sure how one would go about verifying it.

[spencer817]

I like the trends of the 6z model suites if you're in DFW, op trended further south, FV3 stuck to its guns and got even better, and the GFS ensembles look better as well. Let's hope 12z is even better!

[orangeblood]

I like the trends of the 6z model suites if you're in DFW, op trended further south, FV3 stuck to its guns and got even better, and the GFS ensembles look better as well. Let's hope 12z is even better!

Yep, trends are going in the right direction....the key is hanging a piece of energy back in the SW. Even 12Z ICON is starting to show this as well!!

[bubba hotep]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Hell, that’s reason smacking you in the face. Don’t be ashamed. Call it as you see it.

Yep, no reason to sugarcoat things, life isn't rainbows and unicorns. The models have been pretty bad this winter but there is no denying that what looked like a good winter for Texas has been disappointing up to this point. There is still time to turn things around but we all know the reality of living in Texas (outside the Panhandle) and Climo will start working against us pretty good in a couple of weeks. A lot of us can still get solid winter storms into mid-March but I would always rather have something in the bag before heading into March. I don't really see a lot of "whining" and take most negative comments with a grain of salt or as being sarcastic.

Ntxw, myself and others have pointed out how global tropical convection has been more chaotic than normal with ERW & KW providing a lot of extra influence to an already active MJO. This has not really supported what one would consider a true +ENSO pattern. Then throw in a historically strong SSW event that has been sluggish to translate down to the troposphere and this winter has defied expectations in many areas, not just Texas.

With that said, there is still reason to be optimistic for February into early March, despite models now going out to mid-month and beyond and not really showing anything as far as individual threats.

The filtered MJO (I like using Carl's site) shows a slow moving low amp wave staying in 7/8/1 for most of Feb.



Now compare this to the 00z GEFS, which has a bias of over amp when moving convection in WPAC



00z Euro EPS



Watch how slow precipitation anomalies are to move eastward





One more



The precipitation will be there for February and into March, we just need one system to time up right with some cold air. Will that happen? My biggest concern is that the SE ridge flexes and keeps the storm track to our NW and we see more stormy wx vs winter wx threats.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is really close to a winter wx event for N. Texas around the 9th and it does continue the wet theme.

[spencer817]

12z GFS is really close to a winter wx event for N. Texas around the 9th and it does continue the wet theme.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020212/gfs_apcpn_scus_43.png

12z GEFS also has many members enthused about a back end event.

FV3 also hammers DFW...

[rwfromkansas]

I really value the MJO info here...I finally understand it better when in the past it seemed really complicated. Some good trends today. It’s good to have a positive trend at this point. I used to visit another forum, but it is pretty much dead this winter it seems.

[Quixotic]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Hell, that’s reason smacking you in the face. Don’t be ashamed. Call it as you see it.

Yep, no reason to sugarcoat things, life isn't rainbows and unicorns. The models have been pretty bad this winter but there is no denying that what looked like a good winter for Texas has been disappointing up to this point. There is still time to turn things around but we all know the reality of living in Texas (outside the Panhandle) and Climo will start working against us pretty good in a couple of weeks. A lot of us can still get solid winter storms into mid-March but I would always rather have something in the bag before heading into March. I don't really see a lot of "whining" and take most negative comments with a grain of salt or as being sarcastic.

Ntxw, myself and others have pointed out how global tropical convection has been more chaotic than normal with ERW & KW providing a lot of extra influence to an already active MJO. This has not really supported what one would consider a true +ENSO pattern. Then throw in a historically strong SSW event that has been sluggish to translate down to the troposphere and this winter has defied expectations in many areas, not just Texas.

With that said, there is still reason to be optimistic for February into early March, despite models now going out to mid-month and beyond and not really showing anything as far as individual threats.

The filtered MJO (I like using Carl's site) shows a slow moving low amp wave staying in 7/8/1 for most of Feb.

https://i.ibb.co/P6gQ0nV/Filtered-MJO.png

Now compare this to the 00z GEFS, which has a bias of over amp when moving convection in WPAC

https://i.ibb.co/Wzq8tJg/diagram-40days-forecast-GEFS-member-00z-2219.gif

00z Euro EPS

https://i.ibb.co/s9Fw6vh/ECMF-phase-51m-full-00z-2219.gif

Watch how slow precipitation anomalies are to move eastward

https://i.ibb.co/gS0nDYC/gfs-ens-apcpna-global-fh168-384.gif

https://i.ibb.co/D8VgXBw/PreAnom.png

One more

https://i.ibb.co/jMw3DF7/gfs-ens-chi200-Mean-global-fh168-384.gif

The precipitation will be there for February and into March, we just need one system to time up right with some cold air. Will that happen? My biggest concern is that the SE ridge flexes and keeps the storm track to our NW and we see more stormy wx vs winter wx threats.

This is one hell of a good post. The modeling of the mjo has been poor. I think theyre having a hard time resolving that it’s been tending to favor phases 5 and 6 rather than propagating into our favorites and expected phases 7,8 and 1. That westward motion in the GEFS is just plain bizarre. The EPS looks completely stumped.

Maybe we can get some eastward progress. I hope so.

I’ve lived here 46 years. And this stretch of snowless winters is mind boggling. 97-98, 98-99 were the worst prior to this. The drought ended in February of 00 with a 1-2” mix of sleet and snow. Three years. We are coming up on 4 years (minus a dusting or two).

[Snowman67]

12Z GFS shows a 1056HP crossing the border into North Dakota between the 156-162 hr, but then it suddenly scoots east shortly thereafter. Be nice to see it cross in to the U.S. further west in western Montana and have more of an impact on us in the South Plains.

[bubba hotep]

I'm liking some of the minor changes so far on the 12z Euro.

[Brent]

Euro still too progressive Friday