Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our wind chills got down into the 5-10F range overnight! (with actual air temperature lows near 20-22F according to the Mesonet)

I'm glad I didn't have to go outside while that was going on..

[wx247]

Temp here is 24 after a morning low of 15... winds still gusting over 35 mph at times. Highest gust I recorded was 46 mph yesterday. We have a "smattering" of snow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Temps are falling fast tonight. As of 10:20pm, there are already several teens and low 20s readings showing up across the state..

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[WeatherGuesser]

WFO PAH is forecasting a 40-60% chance of freezing rain or 'wintery mix' for 12/15 - 12/16 and temps around 28-34.

Somebody please tell me this is NOT going to be another ice storm event. Seriously, we can't handle another one after Jan '09.

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed as the the GFS, Canadian and Euro suggest a short wave embedded in the Polar Jet with some Pacific moisture will move across the area this weekend and perhaps bring a chance of light rain for our area(SE TX). Further N (N TX/S Plains), perhaps even some wintry precip. This feature may be on the way to being a big East Coast snow event as it wraps up along the EC. We shall see...

HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
829 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 17 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 20 2010


...PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z ECMWF TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
AND 4...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO THE 06Z GEFS MEAN BY DAY 6.
THE BLOCKY REGIME IS INDICATED TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD BY ALL
THE MODELS...WITH A SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION.
HEIGHTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO HERNIATE NORTHWARD. THE
DETAILS OF THE ENERGY COMING INTO THE WEST COAST ARE WILDLY
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS TO SUPPORT THE BLEND USED
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE SITUATION ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
FAR MORE CONTENTIOUS...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS BOTH BRINGING
A MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT OVER THIS
REGION...AS DOES THE GEM GLOBAL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/12 AND 12Z/11
RUNS OF THE ECMWF BOTH SHOWED THE SNOWSTORM. OPTED TO GO WITH THE
06Z GEFS MEAN FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...WHICH AT LEAST BRINGS A
CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...JUST FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND WITH LESS ISOBARIC COMMITMENT...IF YOU WILL. THIS
CHOICE LEAVES ROOM FOR TRENDING EITHER WAY.

[Portastorm]

Forecast discussion out of NWSFO New Braunfels (EWX) said we'll have a virga storm. I just love those!

[vbhoutex]

Dear Santa,
Please bring rain for Christmas. An early Christmas present would be ok too!!

[Ntxw]

Well as of the 12z GFS, there is a snowstorm going on this weekend as Srainhoutx mentioned in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and maybe some in Oklahoma as the system is drying out. A long time to monitor but at least it's something to go on!

[Portastorm]

Well as of the 12z GFS, there is a snowstorm going on next week in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and maybe some in Oklahoma as the system is drying out. A long time to monitor but at least it's something to go on!

Don't believe it, Ntxw ... it's nothing more than one Lucy Van Pelt who is just waiting to pull the football from you when you buy into the scenario!

[Ntxw]

Don't believe it, Ntxw ... it's nothing more than one Lucy Van Pelt who is just waiting to pull the football from you when you buy into the scenario!

Yeah, Lucy ain't the only thing giving false hope this year for me (since you're using the football reference!) bitter, bitter winter

[wx247]

It has been painfully dry so far this fall and looks to continue over the next few days at least. We hit 6º this morning.

[TwisterFanatic]

The GFS is teasing me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The late Fri/early Sat event is starting to look interesting for sure, and I definitely wouldn't rule out the chance of some light accumulations across the state during that timeframe. Doesn't look like a major storm though, so I am not too upset by the fact that I will be out of town late this week (especially since I'll also probably be seeing a little bit of snow/ice while away).

The time to really watch out for a big storm though is next week (sarcasm). I will be heading off to Orlando for my annual Christmas visit, and if last year was any indicator; a major winter storm (i.e. Christmas Eve Blizzard 2009) might be in the works. lol. Every time I go down there, something big tends to happen here; so let's see if the trend continues this time too.

[Ntxw]

GFS and NAM has pretty good moisture with the weekend's storm (GFS has up to 5 inches of snow in Amarillo and a dusting to OKC while NAM has an inch in Lubbock and dusting in the western DFW suburbs). Most of the moisture is shown to shift east coming up from a coastal low. Snow or no snow the moisture would be very welcomed in Texas. Lets do a rain dance everybody!

[srainhoutx]

Anyone notice the pattern change suggested by the GFS after Christmas?

[Ntxw]

Anyone notice the pattern change suggested by the GFS after Christmas?

That's usually the time frame when things shift to the true winter pattern anyway yearly! I'm looking forward to the transition period as Texas will get most of it's weather then hopefully. I'm starting to get tired of this La Nada! The MJO is moving to a better location for us with connections downstream which has me optimistic.

[iorange55]

GFS 18z is coming in a little further south it looks like with the moisture.




not much but it's something.

[frigidice77]

Whats the pattern change look like?

Anyone notice the pattern change suggested by the GFS after Christmas?

That's usually the time frame when things shift to the true winter pattern anyway yearly! I'm looking forward to the transition period as Texas will get most of it's weather then hopefully. I'm starting to get tired of this La Nada! The MJO is moving to a better location for us with connections downstream which has me optimistic.

[somethingfunny]

I need to invent a good and derogatory nickname for the GFS that doesn't have an obscenity in it, so I can use it when the GFS forecasts winter precipitation for Dallas 78 hours out.

Guaranteed Fail Snow?

Of course the 18z runs usually aren't worth the electricity it took to produce them; it's fun to see regardless.

[Ntxw]

Today's models overall (as well recently prior) has a general pattern of northwest flow aloft here in the southern plains. No significant rainfall, or snowfall, or huge arctic outbreaks is depicted up to Christmas and maybe even thereafter. 300+ hrs GFS (sad having to look that far for even the slightest hope) is a little hopeful, but still can't get that +PNA, heck I'd even settle for close to neutral...Gulf of Alaska vortex won't budge, it's made it's permanent home there, sigh.