Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898

We don't need to go that far, as our lifespans are far too short relative to the Earth. Not debating anecdotes here, perception is often skewed. What is true and the numbers back is, 30 year normals are changing for the warmer. The current 10 year span is warmer than the prior 10, which was warmer than the prior 10 on average. So If you're 20+ you will notice the change. We can blame whatever we want, CC, UHI, the groundhog, but the numbers are telling us what is perceived as normal is shifting in a lifetime or less.

Snow is different, there is still randomness in that since we don't get much to begin with and one event can make or break a season. The warmer stretches outnumber the colder ones so the window of opportunities is being reduced. Below is an example of how an analog fails. The troughs today in this example is much weaker than in the past, and ridges stronger. This means the upper atmosphere is warmer overall. Ridge/trough placement is not a bad comparison, only the expanse is different.

https://i.imgur.com/WIdEO8N.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xfrnk4s.gif

My 98 year old grandmother grew up in Iowa, born in 1926. She has stories of having to dig tunnels in the snow to get out of the house and the Winters were harsh and long. I wonder what a modern day Iowaian would say?

Obviously now having lived in NTX since the 50's she has not had to do that.

Weather and time are interesting for sure. Something is changing but what and for how long I feel is the unknown.

[Ntxw]

My 98 year old grandmother grew up in Iowa, born in 1926. She has stories of having to dig tunnels in the snow to get out of the house and the Winters were harsh and long. I wonder what a modern day Iowaian would say?

Obviously now having lived in NTX since the 50's she has not had to do that.

Weather and time are interesting for sure. Something is changing but what and for how long I feel is the unknown.

Back in the early 2010s I was sure the quiet solar cycles would tilt the next decade or two colder, made some posts about natural cycles. That didn't happen. So I've learned to be open to more ideas and trust the numbers.

Last month and many times have mentioned if you predict warmer you will be right most of the time. December started on the chillier side relative, but will end up warmer.

[gpsnowman]

I think in years past I would have been super pissed with warm Decembers. Now they are so common if doesn't phase me much. February is our month anyway. We have warm winters but we always get at least one arctic attack mixed in. Need to have patience and the pattern will get colder in 2025. I do loathe a warm Christmas though. Boo.

[HockeyTx82]

My 98 year old grandmother grew up in Iowa, born in 1926. She has stories of having to dig tunnels in the snow to get out of the house and the Winters were harsh and long. I wonder what a modern day Iowaian would say?

Obviously now having lived in NTX since the 50's she has not had to do that.

Weather and time are interesting for sure. Something is changing but what and for how long I feel is the unknown.

Back in the early 2010s I was sure the quiet solar cycles would tilt the next decade or two colder, made some posts about natural cycles. That didn't happen. So I've learned to be open to more ideas and trust the numbers.

Oh hey I get it, again I'm just asking questions. I'm not siding one way or the other.

I remember that conversation around the solar cycle.

[Stratton23]

I didnt mean to kick off a debate with my comment, i was just expressing my opinion of what i think is going to happen, of course i could be completely wrong, I personally just see that key players coming together that should lead to a colder january, Obviously its not going to get instantly cold to start january, but i think the pattern will start with a couplf of fronts taking us back down to average, and as we progress beyond the first week of January it should get colder

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW SHORT/LONG TERM... /Tuesday night through Monday/

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern will continue this week, with rain
chances continuing through Wednesday. The highest rain chances
will accompany a cold front tonight/Wednesday morning.

- A few storms may produce small hail and gusty winds this afternoon
and again on Wednesday.

- The front on Wednesday will bring seasonal temperatures back to
the region, and near or below freezing temperatures are
expected for parts of the region Thursday morning.

Short Term...

We`ll likely see an uptick in coverage at peak heating
this afternoon, with most activity dissipating shortly after
sunset this evening. An isolated strong storm or two can`t be
ruled out this afternoon, but weak shear will make organized
convection rather difficult to achieve which will limit the severe
threat. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for areas north
of the cold front Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will range
from the mid 60s near the Red River to the mid 70s across Central
Texas.

Most convective activity will have exited the area or dissipated
Tuesday evening, but a strong cold front is slated to arrive late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with widespread showers and
storms expected to accompany the front. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. Stronger forcing with this system will result in a
slightly better potential for a few strong storms, with hail
expected to be the main threat. Fortunately, weak instability
will keep the threat for severe storms low. A stout north breeze
will usher cooler temperatures into the region on Wednesday, with
high temperatures ranging from the low 50s in portions of North
Texas to mid 60s in Central Texas.

Long Term...

Drier and colder air will continue to filter into the region
Wednesday night behind the cold front mentioned in the short term
forecast. Temperatures will fall into the 30s region-wide with
freezing temperatures across rural areas of North Texas. Wind
speeds will decrease through the night so wind chills by sunrise
Thursday will be close to the actual temperature.

Northwest flow aloft and deep dry air in place will yield a sunny
day Thursday. Solar heating and waning cold air advection will
allow for a steady warmup with highs reaching the upper 50s to the
middle 60s. The warmup will be brief with another cold front
slated to move south through the region Thursday night/Friday.
Cold air advection behind the front will be minimal with
temperatures Friday hovering around normal values for mid
December.

Gradual low level return flow and subtle ridging aloft will keep
temperatures near normal through the weekend with lows generally
in the middle 30s to lower 40s and highs in the 50s to the lower
60s.

Return flow will become more established Monday in response to a
developing low pressure system across the Central and Southern
High Plains. The result will be an increase in clouds and warmer
temperatures with highs in 60s. Rain chances will hold off until
Monday night when large scale lift associated with the approaching
shortwave increases.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My 98 year old grandmother grew up in Iowa, born in 1926. She has stories of having to dig tunnels in the snow to get out of the house and the Winters were harsh and long. I wonder what a modern day Iowaian would say?

Obviously now having lived in NTX since the 50's she has not had to do that.

Weather and time are interesting for sure. Something is changing but what and for how long I feel is the unknown.

Back in the early 2010s I was sure the quiet solar cycles would tilt the next decade or two colder, made some posts about natural cycles. That didn't happen. So I've learned to be open to more ideas and trust the numbers.

Last month and many times have mentioned if you predict warmer you will be right most of the time. December started on the chillier side relative, but will end up warmer.

I agree. I was open to many other ideas until a few years ago. I used to believe the majority of cooling was the urban heat island effect, which i saw reach out to Sugar Land with my own eyes as i grew up there. After looking at many past charts of how cold the arctic regions really were at the surface and 850 mb level, and how we are not anywhere near those temps today at any point in the winter on a consistent basis, I began to wonder. Within the last 5 years or so, it's been how long it takes for the cold air to build in the arctic regions. Can really see it in the fall and winter in Texas.

This led me to look into other things. Well, if it's CO2, we would have to reduce it by around 80% to not have major affect on weather. (Dont quote me.)

[Stratton23]

EPO takes a nosedive negative on all the ensembles beginning around the 31-1st, AO goes negative as well as the NAO, but perhaps one of the biggest teleconnections thats trending negative is the WPO, every ensemble suite ive looked at shows all these teleconnections beginning to line up a bit more

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are starting to look a bit better as we head into the new year. At least at the 500MB level.

[HockeyTx82]

Ensembles are starting to look a bit better as we head into the new year. At least at the 500MB level.

Well, I don't live at the 500mb level but I know what you mean.

[Tireman4]

Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image The Eyewall
Dreaming of a white “hot” Christmas? Pattern change to put winter on pause for much of the U.S.
By Matt Lanza on December 17, 2024

For meteorologists, winter technically starts at the beginning of December, not at the solstice which is coming up here shortly. But winter weather can happen all throughout fall too, and so far this season there's been a bit of it around the country. We've seen some decent snows at times in the Sierra of California, where the snowpack is running around 100 to 200 percent of normal for the date.


California snowpack is in good shape for this time of year.
The lake effect snow belts have been crushed this year at times. Erie, PA for example is having their second snowiest start to the season since recordkeeping began there in the late 1800s.


Erie, PA is off to their second snowiest start to a winter on record.
Many people think of Buffalo being the lake effect magnet, and it is at times, but the wind direction has definitely favored some of the Pennsylvania and southwest New York snowbelts. Precip is running about 150 to 200 percent of normal over the last 30 days in Erie versus 75 to 100 percent of normal in Buffalo. You can also see a lake effect snow signal off Lake Ontario too toward Watertown and the notorious Tug Hill Plateau.


The lake effect snow belts have seen significant precipitation over the last 30 days, impacting the area between Cleveland and Buffalo and east of Lake Ontario quite significantly.
There's been some cold at times, certainly in the northern Plains and Midwest and Northeast. But also the Intermountain West has been chilly at times. Not their coldest start to a winter by any means, but firmly in the middle of the pack or below average.

And we've got another blast of cold incoming here over the end of the week and parts of the weekend in the eastern two-thirds of the country, including a modest snow event tomorrow through Friday for parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest and Lakes. More mountain snows are likely out West also. But this pattern is going to change in a very big way after the weekend. A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that's expected to shift about two standard deviations from the mean, with even a 20 to 30 percent chance of a 99th percentile event. In other words, the ridge is going to be strong for December. As you might expect, that's likely to lead to abnormal warmth.


The December 26 through 31 temperature forecast is ugly if you like cold and snow.
In fact, it's not just likely to be warm, the confidence level in a warm forecast is about as good as you'll ever see at this lead time.

Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook is the most above normal (reddest) one they have issued (2008-present) for the Lower 48. The average location in the Lower 48 has a 75.9% chance of being above normal, a 19.9% chance of being near normal, and a 4.2% chance of being below normal for the Dec 24-30 period.

— Brian Brettschneider (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T01:56:32.108Z

CPC forecasts are not technically intensity forecasts; they're confidence in above or below normal forecasts. That said, one could probably interpret their map shown by Brian above and the 5 day average for the 26th through 31st above it similarly. Warmer than normal and potentially much warmer than normal.

So what's the deal? Is winter over? No, it's December 17th. Winter is not over. However, we need to see some changes to dislodge this developing pattern next week. It would be very helpful to see the pattern over Alaska change. The animation below shows forecast height anomalies 20,000 feet up over the next 2 weeks or so. Above normal heights will often correlate to colder weather being dislodged from Alaska and northwest Canada and deposited south and east into the continental U.S. Indeed, we see above normal heights in the near-term, followed by a swift transition to deep blue, below normal heights next week. Good news for Alaskans who like cold weather. By the end of the model run we maybe see some changes over Alaska in terms of rising heights. This could help lead to downstream changes over the Lower 48, but whether that happens or not just as we cross into 2025 remains to be seen.


A pattern over Alaska hospitable to Lower 48 cold transitions to one that is decidedly hostile to it next week before some relaxation of the pattern late.
The bottom line: It's more likely to be a warm Christmas than a white one in many places. Next week looks ugly for winter lovers across the Lower 48. There may be some changes by about New Years, but exactly how fast any transition back colder occurs remains very much TBD at this time.

[snownado]

Another overachieving day at DFW today with a high of 75*F.

It got up to 78*F yesterday.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

It does look colder after the 5th of the new year. My main concern as it should be everyone else's is the pna. If it's positive, most cold will be to our east again. If it's not, then we got a legit shot at a few winter storms imo.

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy7575 the PNA looks to head toward weak- positive to neutral around new years and it eventually goes negative as January progresses , I think that month will bring our best chances at seeing wintry weather in the south, after that who knows what february will bring

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Golfisnteasy7575 the PNA looks to head toward weak- positive to neutral around new years and it eventually goes negative as January progresses , I think that month will bring our best chances at seeing wintry weather in the south, after that who knows what february will bring

That would be better if the pna don't go too positive to give us a glimmer of a chance moving forward. Most niñas have a warmer February but I'm hopeful it won't be this February

[Brent]

Golfisnteasy7575 the PNA looks to head toward weak- positive to neutral around new years and it eventually goes negative as January progresses , I think that month will bring our best chances at seeing wintry weather in the south, after that who knows what february will bring

That would be better if the pna don't go too positive to give us a glimmer of a chance moving forward. Most niñas have a warmer February but I'm hopeful it won't be this February

I just refuse to believe that this winter won't be way better than the last two

[Stratton23]

Brent same, the last two winters have been awful, im cautiously optimistic this winter will be alot more interesting , but especially i get for you since you havent seen a decent snow event in a while, i bet that changes this winter

[Brent]

Brent same, the last two winters have been awful, im cautiously optimistic this winter will be alot more interesting , but especially i get for you since you havent seen a decent snow event in a while, i bet that changes this winter

Yeah I'm tired of going to Colorado to look for snow and it's not even the same there anyway

[Cpv17]

Brent same, the last two winters have been awful, im cautiously optimistic this winter will be alot more interesting , but especially i get for you since you havent seen a decent snow event in a while, i bet that changes this winter

Yeah I'm tired of going to Colorado to look for snow and it's not even the same there anyway

Personally, I think it’s dumb to travel to see snow. Unless it’s just like a few miles away then I understand, but I’d never travel hours away to see it. To each their own though.

[Brent]

Brent same, the last two winters have been awful, im cautiously optimistic this winter will be alot more interesting , but especially i get for you since you havent seen a decent snow event in a while, i bet that changes this winter

Yeah I'm tired of going to Colorado to look for snow and it's not even the same there anyway

Personally, I think it’s dumb to travel to see snow. Unless it’s just like a few miles away then I understand, but I’d never travel hours away to see it. To each their own though.

It's only become a thing because our winters have been so bad the last couple years honestly