Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Calmeth downeth. It’s early December. Trust me on this: it’s coming.

Yup just saw another post about the highest snow cover in 20 years

Enjoy the lull coming up

Brent, the trough is too far east, even for most of the east coast. I do hope that changes eventually with a little further west in time

I'm sure it will eventually. I think I remember them always being favored early on anyway....not sure this is even news. There will be a southeast ridge at some point.

It's why we have so much more winter later most years. Quote me if we don't lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yup just saw another post about the highest snow cover in 20 years

Enjoy the lull coming up

Brent, the trough is too far east, even for most of the east coast. I do hope that changes eventually with a little further west in time

I'm sure it will eventually. I think I remember them always being favored early on anyway....not sure this is even news. There will be a southeast ridge at some point.

It's why we have so much more winter later most years. Quote me if we don't lol

If this winter is front loaded, then I hope we get opportunity soon especially if it flips warm later, especially with niñas

[Ntxw]

Models have been trending colder for the 7 day period. Still a GL aimed direction but the runs have been trying to expand back towards the front range some. -WPO.

[Stratton23]

Yeah that - WPO is insane and it looks to not want to go even close to positive anytime remotely soon, what i also find interesting and unusual is now models are forecasting the MJO to potentially stall in phase 8 through mid January, i dont think i can recall the last time ive seen models forecast the mjo staying in place in a certain phase for that long of a time

[Ntxw]

Yeah that - WPO is insane and it looks to not want to go even close to positive anytime remotely soon, what i also find interesting and unusual is now models are forecasting the MJO to potentially stall in phase 8 through mid January, i dont think i can recall the last time ive seen models forecast the mjo staying in place in a certain phase for that long of a time

I do think we need the mjo to move forward because forcing moving east in the tropics, retracts the mid latitude jets. Stall in 8 keeps the flow east. If we had a good stj then it's a different story.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw it honestly look like a mess to me when looking at the MJO progression on the models, it unfortunately looks like it might stall in 8, then go into the null phase and potentially remerge in phase 7 again, really hope that does not happen, but then again these maps do change daily quite a bit, so hopefully we dont see that stall

[Brent]

I don't like how dry it is but that's a lot of cold air nearby on the GFS

I'm worried even if we dump the Arctic it's gonna be dry. But aren't we supposed to get the cold first and then worry about precip

[Stratton23]

That GFS run had some decent cold shots for texas despite a + PNA showing up

[Brent]

The much hyped torch is disappearing quickly up here. Color me shocked. A high of 58 isn't even news here

[wxman22]

There's a lot of freezing fog out there this morning.

[wxman22]

The much hyped torch is disappearing quickly up here. Color me shocked. A high of 58 isn't even news here

The NW flow aloft is going to make it hard to get any significant warm ups. It looks to stay chilly for a while.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This is why I said what I said early this week. The pattern has never looked torch or even all that warm. My prediction is looking right so far. A couple of warm days for us along I10, but largely seasonal temps until around the 20th when we go below for a while.

[Brent]

This is why I said what I said early this week. The pattern has never looked torch or even all that warm. My prediction is looking right so far. A couple of warm days for us along I10, but largely seasonal temps until around the 20th when we go below for a while.

Exactly... It's gonna get a lot colder at some point. Everyone needs to just stop worrying about it

[Ntxw]

Models continue to look colder for late in the week. While the trajectory is not perfect for us, a 1045mb high or stronger is definitely going to push some of it down.

If you look at the trends for this period, there has been quite a bit of shift as far as the expanse of the cold air.

[Brent]

Another day we're still in the 30s at 10am and this is supposed to be the warmest day til Tuesday

This is just a crazy start to December here

The cold air has never been far away

[Ntxw]

Another day we're still in the 30s at 10am and this is supposed to be the warmest day til Tuesday

This is just a crazy start to December here

The cold air has never been far away

Canada is frigid cold, way below normal. And for the US the core of the ice pack and cold air is from Dakotas-Iowa-Illinois to the GL states. The closer you are to the fridge the harder it is for warmth to overperform. That's been the theme thus far. I reckon the late week cold front will come a little stronger and quicker than probably what it's looking like in forecasts currently.

The reverse is also true with warmth in the southwest, the closer you are to the heater (south and west) the more likely the warmth may overperform.

[Cpv17]

Calmeth downeth. It’s early December. Trust me on this: it’s coming.

Yeah, I’m not worried about it yet. Just bored with the weather lol I need something exciting to happen, whether that’s a major Artic blast, snow, ice, or a big rain event. Been awhile since anything happened down here. Sports have been pretty good to me lately though so at least I got that holding it down for now lol

[JDawg512]

What I would like to see is more rain. No rain for at least the next 7 days. Temps either at or just above average. I have never seen so many green deciduous trees this late in the season in the Austin area.

[Cpv17]

Another day we're still in the 30s at 10am and this is supposed to be the warmest day til Tuesday

This is just a crazy start to December here

The cold air has never been far away

Canada is frigid cold, way below normal. And for the US the core of the ice pack and cold air is from Dakotas-Iowa-Illinois to the GL states. The closer you are to the fridge the harder it is for warmth to overperform. That's been the theme thus far. I reckon the late week cold front will come a little stronger and quicker than probably what it's looking like in forecasts currently.

The reverse is also true with warmth in the southwest, the closer you are to the heater (south and west) the more likely the warmth may overperform.

Well right now that ridge out in the SW is keeping a lot of the cold from diving S. Seems like a lot of clipper systems just cutting across the Great Lakes to the NE cuz of it.

[Ntxw]

Look at what the GFS has been doing. Oklahoma is gonna be a freeze box for a couple of days. This is not LaLaland this is later this week that's had some substantial changes.