Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[plainsman]

true arctic air never goes east first... if it does its not of true arctic nature... Texas especaially the panhandle west and north always gets the true arctic air before the southeast or north florida does ... cold air dips way further south in Texas then the southeast.. take for instance houston and san antonio sanantonio is at the same latitude as orlando or between talahasee and orlando and wintry precipitaion in sanantonio is no big deal really it happens every year and its not a shocker to people in san antonio... wintry precip in san antonio is not going to make headlines if wintry precip hit orlando it would make national headlines on the front page of every paper and is a once in a 30 yr. event if that... same with houston.... wintry precip in north florida is a complete absolute shock where in houston its not too out of the ordinary to see some type of wintry precip every yr... maybe not snow, but sleet or freezing rain becuse of how far south and east houston is in texas....if the cold goes southeast first itll just be a weak alberta clipper which is not true arctic air like the strong blue northers Texas gets every year.....

[pup55]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

42003 in the central gulf is already at 77.5F.

[LAwxrgal]

NWS New Orleans is on board too....

000
FXUS64 KLIX 021940 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
140 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006

.....

DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO ITS BASE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE VERY COLD -25 TO -30 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.


(now what the heck does it mean, when temps are -25 and -30 degree temps are at 500 mb heights? Mets?)

[Portastorm]

Actually LAwxrgal, I think that is a reference to the short wave (upper level disturbance) that is predicted to move through your state. What NOLA office is saying is that its a very cold storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere, thus it has potential to create a lot of atmospheric dynamics (i.e. thunderstorms).

I don't believe this is a reference at all to the possible arctic air moving into the south next week or beyond.

[Brent]

NWS New Orleans is on board too....

000
FXUS64 KLIX 021940 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
140 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006

.....

DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO ITS BASE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE VERY COLD -25 TO -30 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.


(now what the heck does it mean, when temps are -25 and -30 degree temps are at 500 mb heights? Mets?)

That'll make the air unstable. Has nothing to do with cold air at the surface. An unstable airmass makes thunderstorms.

[LAwxrgal]

Oh, thanks for the explanation. I thought it meant cold air at the upper levels of the atmosphere.

[Portastorm]

Oh, thanks for the explanation. I thought it meant cold air at the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Well, it does ... but it doesn't necessarily mean cold air at the surface. In this case, it means a very cold upper low may swing through Louisiana and it's interaction with a warmer, moist airmass at atmospheric levels beneath it have potential to create some strong storms.

[Kelarie]

From NWS Amarillo....

UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS RIDGE SETS UP WILL DICTATE IF THE PANHANDLES GET JUST GLANCING BLOWS FROM THE COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM CANADA WITH THE SHORT WAVES OR IF WE RECEIVE MORE OF A DIRECT HIT. DGUT/DT SAYS THAT IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES ENOUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OR U.S. WEST COAST TO ALLOW SOME COLD AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES. WINTER MAY NOT BE OVER YET.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It looks like the NWS offices in Texas are on board for the pattern change next week. I think they are still trying to figure out how cold it might be, but that's understandable being a week out .

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
312 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006

SUBSIDENT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA'S WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. THEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL SWITCH WINDS ALOFT
INTO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOW A COLDER..DENSER
AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006

RIDGING OVER THE WRN
US AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST HALF SUGGESTS SEVERAL REINFORCING
SHOTS OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING HIGHLY
IN QUESTION. CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE TROUGH WOULD TAKE THE
BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE REGION...BUT ITS THE CLOSEST
THING WE'VE SEEN TO A WINTER PATTERN IN A WHILE AND TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AT TIMES IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHCS LOOK TO SLIM TO MENTION
GIVEN THE UPR PATTERN.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEST COAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS RIDGE SETS UP WILL DICTATE IF THE
PANHANDLES GET JUST GLANCING BLOWS FROM THE COLD AIR COMING DOWN
FROM CANADA WITH THE SHORT WAVES OR IF WE RECEIVE MORE OF A DIRECT
HIT. DGUT/DT SAYS THAT IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME WHEN THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES ENOUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OR U.S. WEST
COAST TO ALLOW SOME COLD AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES. WINTER MAY NOT BE
OVER YET.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006

AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN AMPLIFIED +PNA WITH A
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS AROUND MID-WEEK AND SHOULD BRING US NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WX MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK.

[vbhoutex]

true arctic air never goes east first... if it does its not of true arctic nature... Texas especaially the panhandle west and north always gets the true arctic air before the southeast or north florida does ... cold air dips way further south in Texas then the southeast.. take for instance houston and san antonio sanantonio is at the same latitude as orlando or between talahasee and orlando and wintry precipitaion in sanantonio is no big deal really it happens every year and its not a shocker to people in san antonio... wintry precip in san antonio is not going to make headlines if wintry precip hit orlando it would make national headlines on the front page of every paper and is a once in a 30 yr. event if that... same with houston.... wintry precip in north florida is a complete absolute shock where in houston its not too out of the ordinary to see some type of wintry precip every yr... maybe not snow, but sleet or freezing rain becuse of how far south and east houston is in texas....if the cold goes southeast first itll just be a weak alberta clipper which is not true arctic air like the strong blue northers Texas gets every year.....

We haven't been getting many of those true blue northers over the last several years, except at Christmas last year. I've been here in Houston since 1970 so I do know what I am talking about. And wintery precip in SA is uncommon, just not as uncommon as it is in FL.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I really hopes it comes.

92 degrees here in Corpus today.

It's February 2nd, right?

[Tyler]

92 degrees! WOW! Its only 75 degrees here in Houston. Nice day.

[Tyler]

18z GFS spikes my interesting greatly.

ALMOST 1050MB high building in NW Canada diving south, AT 162 HOUR DAY 7!! For once its not at day 10.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

What follows in later frame is an extreme arctic outbreak.

Interesting stuff, and the pattern is favorable for this, so we'll have to keep watch, not saying this is going to happen, just pointing out what the model shows, not forecasting anything. The GFS almost looks exactly like the EURO in the long range, in regards to the ridge building into Alaska. The EURO develops a 1050MB+ in NW Canada! Interesting stuff!

[richtrav]

Actually Arctic air does not have to plow through Texas first before hitting the SE. It just works out that way more often than not. Look to the freezes of January 1981 or 1985 as an example, they only gave TX a glancing blow. And the country north and west of San Antonio is about 1500-2000ft above sea level, that's where they tend to get the snow and ice (which comes from overrunning, a phenomenon not nearly as common in FL, where the coldest weather tends to be clear and dry). Absolute minima in TX and N FL tend to be similar at the same latititude around the Gulf until you move down the Florida peninsula. It isn't until you've traveled some distance down the peninsula, especially on the Gulf side, that the Arctic fronts have been appreciably modified relative to the same latitude in TX

[weatherrabbit_tx]

elevation plays a part too, san antonio is at 701 ft. above sea level, while houston is around 50 or so, where I live its around 180 ft. far nw harris county

[m_ru]

I like how earlier on all this talk of cold weather was supposed to start this weekend and then stronger arctic outbreaks were supposed to follow. Where is the cold? It seems that the models keep playing with our heads and pushing the future cold weather later and later. I don't buy any of it.
Until it happens I'm not going to believe it. I feel like I'm wasting my time giving my hopes up on something that ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!

[Tyler]

I like how earlier on all this talk of cold weather was supposed to start this weekend and then stronger arctic outbreaks were supposed to follow. Where is the cold? It seems that the models keep playing with our heads and pushing the future cold weather later and later. I don't buy any of it.
Until it happens I'm not going to believe it. I feel like I'm wasting my time giving my hopes up on something that ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!

Ok, so the pattern change is days away, yet you don't believe it? OK... Look, don't worry. This is for real this time. It is for sure going to cool down, the models are now very consistent, and we are no longer talking about it 10 days ahead. This is just an example of how shocked everyone is going to be in a week, we'll all be wondering where all the warmth has gone.

[jasons2k]

true arctic air never goes east first... if it does its not of true arctic nature... Texas especaially the panhandle west and north always gets the true arctic air before the southeast or north florida does ... cold air dips way further south in Texas then the southeast.. take for instance houston and san antonio sanantonio is at the same latitude as orlando or between talahasee and orlando and wintry precipitaion in sanantonio is no big deal really it happens every year and its not a shocker to people in san antonio... wintry precip in san antonio is not going to make headlines if wintry precip hit orlando it would make national headlines on the front page of every paper and is a once in a 30 yr. event if that... same with houston.... wintry precip in north florida is a complete absolute shock where in houston its not too out of the ordinary to see some type of wintry precip every yr... maybe not snow, but sleet or freezing rain becuse of how far south and east houston is in texas....if the cold goes southeast first itll just be a weak alberta clipper which is not true arctic air like the strong blue northers Texas gets every year.....

Plainsman,

sorry but I have to disagree with almost everything stated here. San Antonio is not the same latitude as Orlando, it's close but that small difference on the map makes a huge difference in the weather. Look at the difference between Orlando and Jacksonville. I happened to be in San Antonio a couple of years ago and they had some snow flurries. It was a HUGE deal. Wall to wall coverage on the local news stations. Kids in middle school being interviewed said they had never seen snow before. Same story in Houston last year when it snowed. Now, just barely NW of San Anotnio it is more frequent because you're up in the Hill Country, but not in the city itself.

You are right Texas cities at the exact same latitude are colder than those on Florida, but not by much. And true artic air can plow straight to the SE US....

[Extremeweatherguy]

true arctic air never goes east first... if it does its not of true arctic nature... Texas especaially the panhandle west and north always gets the true arctic air before the southeast or north florida does ... cold air dips way further south in Texas then the southeast.. take for instance houston and san antonio sanantonio is at the same latitude as orlando or between talahasee and orlando and wintry precipitaion in sanantonio is no big deal really it happens every year and its not a shocker to people in san antonio... wintry precip in san antonio is not going to make headlines if wintry precip hit orlando it would make national headlines on the front page of every paper and is a once in a 30 yr. event if that... same with houston.... wintry precip in north florida is a complete absolute shock where in houston its not too out of the ordinary to see some type of wintry precip every yr... maybe not snow, but sleet or freezing rain becuse of how far south and east houston is in texas....if the cold goes southeast first itll just be a weak alberta clipper which is not true arctic air like the strong blue northers Texas gets every year.....

Plainsman,

sorry but I have to disagree with almost everything stated here. San Antonio is not the same latitude as Orlando, it's close but that small difference on the map makes a huge difference in the weather. Look at the difference between Orlando and Jacksonville. I happened to be in San Antonio a couple of years ago and they had some snow flurries. It was a HUGE deal. Wall to wall coverage on the local news stations. Kids in middle school being interviewed said they had never seen snow before. Same story in Houston last year when it snowed. Now, just barely NW of San Anotnio it is more frequent because you're up in the Hill Country, but not in the city itself.

You are right Texas cities at the exact same latitude are colder than those on Florida, but not by much. And true artic air can plow straight to the SE US....

I recently (within the last 6-12 months) moved here from Orlando, and I think that it is much colder in Houston than in Orlando. Houston is usually 10 degrees colder. The record coldest High in Orlando is 35-36 and in Houston it is 25-26. The record low in Orlando is 19 and in Houston it is 5. Also, according to the NWS, Houston averages snow every 6 years and ice every 4..but with a series of warm winters recently, many can be fooled into thinking that it is much less common. In Orlando, however, you can count recorded snowfalls on one hand...may be two. The most recent event in Orlando was some sleet/ice/snow in Dec. 1989 (or snow flurries in 2003...but that really was more the east coast; not Orlando). The most recent big event in Houston was last year...and before that it was probably the 1997 ice storm. Overall Houston is noticably colder than Orlando during the winter. Keep in mind that even though the last two years have been warm...there have still been freezes in Houston. In Orlando, however, there has not been a freeze at the airport since 2003.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I like how earlier on all this talk of cold weather was supposed to start this weekend and then stronger arctic outbreaks were supposed to follow. Where is the cold? It seems that the models keep playing with our heads and pushing the future cold weather later and later. I don't buy any of it.
Until it happens I'm not going to believe it. I feel like I'm wasting my time giving my hopes up on something that ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!

Ok, so the pattern change is days away, yet you don't believe it? OK... Look, don't worry. This is for real this time. It is for sure going to cool down, the models are now very consistent, and we are no longer talking about it 10 days ahead. This is just an example of how shocked everyone is going to be in a week, we'll all be wondering where all the warmth has gone.

To me, I would still consider this weekend the gateway to the change. We will fall to 65-70 this weekend, which will be the slow transtition and then a stronger cold front will REALLY change our pattern next Monday. Highs next week should stay below 65, and lows below 45. By mid next week, another cold front will probably drop our highs below 60 and our lows below 40, and from there more and more cold fronts gradually cool us more and more. The change IS coming.