Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Small band of snow. Very brief fun a pleasant surprise, especially for the eastern side which is the most snow they have seen in years!

[somethingfunny]

Small band of snow. Very brief fun a pleasant surprise, especially for the eastern side which is the most snow they have seen in years!

[Texas Snowman]

Snow has picked up in both flake size (dime size) and intensity. Starting to get the faintest white film showing up on the grass here in Denison.

Nothing like the 5" in OKC that EWG has gotten this afternoon, but it's better than the cold rain we've had much of the day!

How much did y'all end up getting? I heard 75 was shut down south of Sherman due to icing.

Yeah, they had it shut down due to an accident. That bridge and one or two others were pretty icy.

Overall, a good "frosting" of snow, probably about 3/4" in most places. More than I was expecting, less than I was hoping for. But it sure was pretty as it fell pretty heavily around 5:30 p.m.

Maybe yet we'll get a big snow event this winter, although the clock is now ticking with January coming to an end.

[Ntxw]

February is the snowiest month for us I think. Here is tonight's GFS which yet again has changed and will continue to do so. (Later this week's storm)





Edit: To note the run does show a very active southern branch. All it takes is a piece of colder air to work into the systems and you have yourself some hooplas. Also there is a 1052mb high depicted which has been showing up for awhile now. Definitely pattern changes.

[jasons2k]

I'm glad you guys got a treat at the end

Maybe February will bring better luck...but you're right Texas Snowman...time is ticking now.

[Ntxw]

I can't wait till the days of blistering heat giving me sun burns and sweaty like crazy with humidity. Then there's always the fat energy bills sigh...Texas heat kills, but you can always depend on it to arrive not too long folks.

[DentonGal]

:uarrow: I can't wait till the days of blistering heat giving me sun burns and sweaty like crazy with humidity. Then there's always the fat energy bills sigh...Texas heat kills, but you can always depend on it to arrive not too long folks.

UGH! Don't remind us! Hope we get a little more snow/sleet/freezing rain action this year....even if it's in March again!

[serenata09]

:uarrow: I can't wait till the days of blistering heat giving me sun burns and sweaty like crazy with humidity. Then there's always the fat energy bills sigh...Texas heat kills, but you can always depend on it to arrive not too long folks.

UGH! Don't remind us! Hope we get a little more snow/sleet/freezing rain action this year....even if it's in March again!

Agreed!

[wxman57]

I'd gladly take a high of 100 degrees before a day like today with a high in the low-mid 40s. Too cold this weekend to do any bike riding, or to continue preparing my house for painting. Just stuck here waiting for it to warm up.

Good news (for me) is that the pattern doesn't look too cold for the next few weeks. No sign of any major cold air movement out of northern Canada or of any significant winter weather in Texas.

[Stephanie]

I'd gladly take a high of 100 degrees before a day like today with a high in the low-mid 40s. Too cold this weekend to do any bike riding, or to continue preparing my house for painting. Just stuck here waiting for it to warm up.

Good news (for me) is that the pattern doesn't look too cold for the next few weeks. No sign of any major cold air movement out of northern Canada or of any significant winter weather in Texas.

You mean you wouldn't bike ride in 19 degree weather either?

[DentonGal]

I'd gladly take a high of 100 degrees before a day like today with a high in the low-mid 40s. Too cold this weekend to do any bike riding, or to continue preparing my house for painting. Just stuck here waiting for it to warm up.

Good news (for me) is that the pattern doesn't look too cold for the next few weeks. No sign of any major cold air movement out of northern Canada or of any significant winter weather in Texas.

Awww, Wxman57, please don't rain on my Fantasy February Maybe if we all sucked REALLY hard, we could suck some Arctic air our way!

[southerngale]

I'd gladly take a high of 100 degrees before a day like today with a high in the low-mid 40s. Too cold this weekend to do any bike riding, or to continue preparing my house for painting. Just stuck here waiting for it to warm up.

Good news (for me) is that the pattern doesn't look too cold for the next few weeks. No sign of any major cold air movement out of northern Canada or of any significant winter weather in Texas.

Oh, I thought I had read on here that we were changing to a colder pattern and that it might get "interesting" down here. Oh well. It is quite cold at the moment. Sitting at 35° and it's almost 1pm!

[mrgolf]

Srainhoustx,ive enjoyed this weather board.Lots of descriptive and informative stuff.I wanted to know if we have any chance to see winterwx with this upcoming storm?I noticed your post over at eastern weather forum with the HPC extended discussion. I think the STJ will get active for the next few weeks,but when do you see a ridge developing off the west coast to allow maybe some STJ energy to interact with a cold high?We always need a pattern to unleash the cold air and then the precip moves in.Thats how we saw that miniice event the other day around memphis. thanks kevin PS,some of the models are trying to close of the ULL kinda close to us,i think

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoustx,ive enjoyed this weather board.Lots of descriptive and informative stuff.I wanted to know if we have any chance to see winterwx with this upcoming storm?I noticed your post over at eastern weather forum with the HPC extended discussion. I think the STJ will get active for the next few weeks,but when do you see a ridge developing off the west coast to allow maybe some STJ energy to interact with a cold high?We always need a pattern to unleash the cold air and then the precip moves in.Thats how we saw that miniice event the other day around memphis. thanks kevin PS,some of the models are trying to close of the ULL kinda close to us,i think

Thanks for the kind words mrgolf. While the next series of storms are of Pacific origin in a zonal split flow, there are suggestions that a colder regime will return later in February. Check out the When will the Arctic Air Return thread by vbhoutex and you will see some very informative discussions from donsutherland1 and other fine members. RE the HPC. It is note worthy that we will again see Pacific RECON tasked for the upcoming series of storms...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 02 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2010

LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DISPLAY BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FAIRLY DEEP TROF REACHING THE ERN
PACIFIC BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
ON THE EXTREME ERN SIDE OF THE SOLN SPREAD REGARDING THE EWD
EXTENT OF THE DOMINANT SFC SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST AROUND DAYS
5-6 THU-FRI. THIS TROF SHOULD FAVOR A DECENT WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE
THAT WOULD SEEM TO RECOMMEND LEANING AWAY FROM THE FASTER/EWD SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... SO THIS ASPECT OF THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT
PREFERRED. THE 00Z GFS SFC PATTERN COMPARES SOMEWHAT BETTER TO
REMAINING GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST BUT DETAILS OF
ERN PAC EVOLUTION AS A WHOLE STRAY SOMEWHAT FROM BEST CLUSTERING
OF 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... SHORT
RANGE TRENDS CLUSTER BEST AROUND THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN FOR
THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST AS OF EARLY DAY 3 TUE. THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS REFLECTIVE OF EARLIER OPERATIONAL ECMWF
RUNS THAT WERE FARTHER SWD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.

GUIDANCE MAINTAINS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE IDEA OF VIGOROUS
SRN STREAM PAC ENERGY FEEDING INTO A TROF THAT CROSSES MEXICO
AROUND DAY 5 THU AND THEN SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE FCST
TO TRACK FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN ATLC. THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE FULL 00Z GUIDANCE
SPECTRUM AND ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST RUNS FROM THE PAST
DAY... FAVORING LESS THAN HALF WEIGHTING OF THE GFS/GEFS MEAN
SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER HAND THE FACT THAT THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EWD EXTENT OF HGT FALLS/SFC LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADS TO SOME SKEPTICISM OVER
TRENDING AS FAST AS 00Z ECMWF WITH THE ERN SFC LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO PROVIDE THE BEST INDIVIDUAL COMPROMISE THAT
MINIMIZES CONTINUITY CHANGES AND STAYS WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT
SOLN SPREAD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THE GFS MAY BE TOO WEAK WITH A
WAVE FCST TO BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AS OF EARLY TUE AND TOO
STRONG WITH A WAVE TRACKING OFF THE SERN COAST TUE-TUE NIGHT.

CONSIDERATIONS FOR DAYS 3-4 TUE-WED SYSTEMS YIELD A PREFERENCE
CLOSE TO A 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN BLEND. AS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN BEGINS TO COMPARE BETTER TO OTHER SOLNS BY DAYS 5-7 AND THE
00Z CANADIAN OFFERS A STRONGER SOLN THAT FITS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN CLUSTER AND PROVIDES SOME EXTRA DEFINITION... THE MID-LATE
PART OF THE FCST THEN INCORPORATES A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN/00Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS DOWNPLAYS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE GEFS MEAN THAT MAY BE SLOW WITH THE GULF TO WRN
ATLC SFC LOW.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS FOLLOW PRIOR THINKING WITH THE ONLY
ADDITIONS TOWARDS LOWERING THE SFC PRESSURES AND INCREASING THE
GRADIENT WINDS WITH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC REGION COASTAL STORM
DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT. PACIFIC WINTER STORM RECON REQUESTED FOR WEST
COAST SYSTEM AND EAST COAST STORM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE A FARILY BROAD SPREAD IN THE SFC POSITION OF
THE NEXT EAST COAST SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE AVERAGED POSITION OF OP
MODELS AND ENS MEANS TAKING CLIMATOLOGICAL OFFSHORE TRACK FOR NOW
WITH NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS.

MDT PCPN INTO THE WEST COAST MID WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIG
PAC STORM LATE WEEK WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER RAINS AND
MTN SNOWS INTO CA AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

DEVELOPING GULF COAST LOW WILL SPREAD SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM COASTAL TX EWD ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST MID WEEK INTO FRI
AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD. DEEPENING SFC LOW PROVIDES A
SIG THREAT OF A STRONG MID ATLC COASTAL STORM WITH INLAND WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL FRI-SAT MID ATLC REGION AND UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, there are at least 4-6 more weeks that could provide winter weather to at least northern Texas (not including the Panhandle). So I can't declare that winter's over in that respect. So don't give up your hope on seeing more winter weather. I wouldn't even rule out the chance of snow/ice down here in Houston the rest of this winter. I just don't see anything significant affecting Texas for the next week or two.

Personally, going skiing in Colorado every few years completely satisfies my desire to see snow. Once you've seen a few feet of snow fall at a time with snow drifts above your head, seeing a few flakes of snow in Texas just doesn't quite compare.

[srainhoutx]

Unfortunately, there are at least 4-6 more weeks that could provide winter weather to at least northern Texas (not including the Panhandle). So I can't declare that winter's over in that respect. So don't give up your hope on seeing more winter weather. I wouldn't even rule out the chance of snow/ice down here in Houston the rest of this winter. I just don't see anything significant affecting Texas for the next week or two.

Personally, going skiing in Colorado every few years completely satisfies my desire to see snow. Once you've seen a few feet of snow fall at a time with snow drifts above your head, seeing a few flakes of snow in Texas just doesn't quite compare.

I agree wxman57...

Mount Shasta ski trip a couple of years back...




Lake Tahoe about 10 years ago. One of my favorite ski areas in the day...

[Turtle]

The NWS had our high for today at 42. But instead we got to 32 (probably 2 degrees colder here). This high is one of the coldest this winter for me.

[DentonGal]

Same here in Denton. High of 35 forecast for today, still sitting at 29 degrees.

[southerngale]

We had an expected high in the upper 40s, and I've reached a high of 37° with it going back and forth between 37° and 36° the last few hours. Much colder than expected. While I like cold weather for a nice change from the heat we experience much of the year, I completely understand wxman57 not wanting to go on a bike ride today. I wouldn't want to either.

[funster]

The snow gods have been good to many parts of Texas this winter even if there is no more snowfall but no 100s yet please and not too many this summer either.