Texas Winter 2018-2019

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS shows a 1056HP crossing the border into North Dakota between the 156-162 hr, but then it suddenly scoots east shortly thereafter. Be nice to see it cross in to the U.S. further west in western Montana and have more of an impact on us in the South Plains.

Split flow/El Nino pattern has kept this at bay all winter long to this point across most of the lower CONUS. There have been no strong Arctic Highs more than 1050 mb to drop south into the CONUS all winter. Pattern has just been too progressive for sustained blocking to develop across the lower 48 CONUS. The polar jet has been hung up across the extreme Northern tier of the U.S. and Great Lakes region all season long. The southern stream jet has and continues to be the dominant feature over the CONUS. Now Canada, on the other hand, well that is a different story completely, as bitter cold has been bottled up across there all winter to this juncture, especially Eastern and Central Canada.

[TheProfessor]

Definitely looks like I might see some flooding issues here. I'd definitely take that over the icemageddon that some of the models are showing just north of here.

[gpsnowman]

Euro still too progressive Friday

How does the Southeast Ridge come into play in this type of situation? Does the SER help direct a cold blast more toward us in Texas? Brent probably has the most experience with that and I have read the SER is about to make itself known.

[Ntxw]

In terms of the EPO, centered around the 10th will probably be the most negative of this winter.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1091716579967098881

[Brent]

Euro still too progressive Friday

How does the Southeast Ridge come into play in this type of situation? Does the SER help direct a cold blast more toward us in Texas? Brent probably has the most experience with that and I have read the SER is about to make itself known.

It can in the right scenario but its not that simple i dont think too much ridge and were warm too someone may be able to explain it better

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS a step in the right direction? However, the 12z Euro EPS was a step in the wrong direction. (talking system next week for N. Texas)

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the northern burbs are below freezing when precipitation starts but there is a stout warm layer. So freezing rain that transitions to winter mix, depending on how fast the deeper cold air comes in?

[Cerlin]

18z GFS a step in the right direction? However, the 12z Euro EPS was a step in the wrong direction. (talking system next week for N. Texas)

I think this is a trend we’re going to be seeing for the next few days as we get closer to seeing it. Steps in the right direction and then the wrong and then the right...keeps us on our toes!

[Brent]

Lets have a good trend inside a week for once

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS a step in the right direction? However, the 12z Euro EPS was a step in the wrong direction. (talking system next week for N. Texas)

I think this is a trend we’re going to be seeing for the next few days as we get closer to seeing it. Steps in the right direction and then the wrong and then the right...keeps us on our toes!

Let's hope. The 12z Euro was still more progressive than the 12z GFS but it was a step in the right direction. Now the 18z GFS is even slower than the 12z. We need that s/w to slow & dig. With AAM trending higher, maybe we do see that system dig deeper in the SW and come out slower and not race off to the GLs?

[bubba hotep]

From FWD, not impressed but keeping an eye on things:


The Friday time period remains fraught with uncertainties,
primarily due to the fact that the models are producing
contrasting solutions on forcing and precipitation. For now, have
hung onto chance PoPs generally along and south of I-20 Thursday
night and Friday. At the same time, have kept the mention of
precipitation out of the northern zones where overnight lows will
probably drop to near, or slightly below freezing by daybreak
Friday. While the likelihood of any winter precipitation is pretty
unlikely, this will be the key time period to monitor in
subsequent forecasts.

[Haris]

18z FV3 even has a ice storm down to San ANtonio

[bubba hotep]

18z FV3 even has a ice storm down to San ANtonio

[Ntxw]

Watch the subtropics. Moisture can plume even with an unfavorable ejection if cold can press ahead of it if something is coming from the southern jet.

Can't say we've seen too many cases of HPs growing once in the US but it has happened before. (December 2016)

[spencer817]

18z FV3 even has a ice storm down to San ANtonio

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019020218/fv3p_ref_frzn_eus_23.png

Imagine how triggered DFW folks would be if this was south of us. GEFS mean is 2.3" for Dallas now!

[Ntxw]

More from MJV via EPO

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1091835946688040960

[Brent]

18z FV3 even has a ice storm down to San ANtonio

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019020218/fv3p_ref_frzn_eus_23.png

Imagine how triggered DFW folks would be if this was south of us. GEFS mean is 2.3" for Dallas now!

I'm still triggered from last year

[Brent]

Definitely a big improvement today. Last night had almost zero

[spencer817]

GG to king euro!!! Another snub for DFW!

[orangeblood]

GG to king euro!!! Another snub for DFW!

Yup, NO BUENO!!