Texas Winter 2018-2019

[1900hurricane]

Since the snowiest month has oft been discussed here, here's the answer.

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1091879102707974144

[Brent]

Of course the GFS looks like the Euro

[bubba hotep]

Of course the GFS looks like the Euro

Welp, at least we had 6 hrs to dream lol

[starsfan65]

Of course the GFS looks like the Euro

It is the usual 0z GFS garbage run.

[Haris]

CMC starting to show the euro solution for FRI

[Brent]

We just cant win

Of course the Euro being onboard other times didnt help us either

[orangeblood]

Of course the GFS looks like the Euro

Welp, at least we had 6 hrs to dream lol

Yep, valiant effort boys and girls!!’

[Haris]

But yeah overall a very un interesting 0z modelo suite so far...

Lets just get out of this rut. I am so ready for spring and squall lines.

[spencer817]

But yeah overall a very un interesting 0z modelo suite so far...

Lets just get out of this rut. I am so ready for spring and squall lines.[url]https://i.ibb.co/F7H6Yt5/2015-05-28-23-40-19.jpg [/url]

Agreed, I don't think the DFW curse will be lifted this year. Ready for severe!

[Cerlin]

Don’t give up hope yet guys. Didn’t they already take our chances away for Friday just to bring them back with the 12z? It’s a cycle. Take away, bring back, take away, bring back...

You know when people pick those flowers? “Loves me, loves me not, loves me, loves me not...”! These model runs this year have been like that and we’ve just been unlucky with the loves me not (or no snow) petal being picked last. But if we line it up, maybe the snow petal will be picked by Mother Nature and the models this time. Believe me, it’s gonna happen one time.

[Haris]

But yeah overall a very un interesting 0z modelo suite so far...

Lets just get out of this rut. I am so ready for spring and squall lines.[url]https://i.ibb.co/F7H6Yt5/2015-05-28-23-40-19.jpg [/url]

Agreed, I don't think the DFW curse will be lifted this year. Ready for severe!

If we can even get that We had 1 watch all of last year

[spencer817]

But yeah overall a very un interesting 0z modelo suite so far...

Lets just get out of this rut. I am so ready for spring and squall lines.[url]https://i.ibb.co/F7H6Yt5/2015-05-28-23-40-19.jpg [/url]

Agreed, I don't think the DFW curse will be lifted this year. Ready for severe!

If we can even get that We had 1 watch all of last year

Last year sucked for everyone, I think with an el nino state the plains will get better shots than the past 2-3 years.

[Brent]

But yeah overall a very un interesting 0z modelo suite so far...

Lets just get out of this rut. I am so ready for spring and squall line.

I'm sure the amazing hyped up winter pattern will finally appear in mid March when its too late to snow and put a cap on anything interesting

That'd be just the perfect icing on the cake for this winter

[Cpv17]

Looks like it’s going to be a battle between the Arctic vs the SER. Which one will win out for our area? Battlegrounds should loaded with qpf.

[Brent]

the Euro barely even has a freeze at DFW now... this is pathetic, can't even hold onto "cold" air much less any wintry fun

I'm telling yall if this winter doesn't turn around soon it's going down as the worst I've ever seen due to all the hype and nonsense

[1900hurricane]

Latest on the severe weather possibilities from the SPC:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030913
SPC AC 030913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Sun Feb 03 2019

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance continues to focus severe thunderstorm
potential during the early part of the extended period. The EC has
exhibited multiple run-to-run continuity during the past few days in
the projected evolution of a positive-tilt mid-level trough moving
from the Interior West through the central U.S. and more recently,
the operational GFS has followed suit. Uncertainty remains
regarding moisture/buoyancy profiles over parts of the southern
Plains states on Wednesday and subsequently in areas downstream over
the Ozark Plateau and MS Valley. In summary, will continue to
highlight predictability too low for Wednesday-Thursday (days 4-5).
Potential for organized severe thunderstorms likely becomes
negligible by next weekend with offshore low-level flow into the
Gulf.

..Smith.. 02/03/2019

[Texas Snow]

FWD:

Friday and Beyond---After above normal warmth, Friday and into
the weekend will see much colder conditions. Strong north winds
below 850mb should ensure that colder air filters southward into
North and Central Texas. 700mb flow, however, appears as if it
will quickly become southerly...possibly in response to the
thermally direct circulation associated with the entrance region a
strong upper level jet. This would result in a decent amount of
isentropic upglide atop the colder near surface layer and thus a
good setup for post-frontal stratiform precipitation. Previously,
the GFS and some of its ensembles were the lone camp that
advertised this scenario. Closer inspection of the latest ECMWF
guidance is more in line with the GFS/GEFS solutions and I`ve
nudged PoPs upward some late Friday and into Saturday. At this
time, it appears that most locations should be warm enough such
that all precipitation remains just a cold rain. The exception to
this may be along the Red River, though moisture depth likely
would support more in the way of freezing drizzle. For now, I`ll
keep the entire forecast void of any winter precipitation, but
it`ll be something to keep an eye on.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, i have a question. The mjo charts have the mjo going into phase 8 and into 1 and 2. Thats based on the euro. The gefs gets there but a weird direction lol. If that happens, would that make any difference in increasing our winter weather chances later on? The overall pattern has been progressive pattern.

[hamburgerman7070]

the Euro barely even has a freeze at DFW now... this is pathetic, can't even hold onto "cold" air much less any wintry fun

I'm telling yall if this winter doesn't turn around soon it's going down as the worst I've ever seen due to all the hype and nonsense

Brent, im not sure what going on dude. It is interesting for sure. Im happy to see my two winter events in ne Arkansas. If you count November it would be three of them.

[rwfromkansas]

But yeah overall a very un interesting 0z modelo suite so far...

Lets just get out of this rut. I am so ready for spring and squall line.

I'm sure the amazing hyped up winter pattern will finally appear in mid March when its too late to snow and put a cap on anything interesting

That'd be just the perfect icing on the cake for this winter

That has been an issue in the east a lot, cold springs. I hope we can avoid it here.