Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

If it's not going to snow then can we lock this in?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020418/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

anything is better than this lol

[spencer817]

Woof, I see some high risks for flooding in my crystal ball...

[Quixotic]

If it's not going to snow then can we lock this in?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020418/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

By God yes. I need to jump start my lawn.

[Brent]

http://i63.tinypic.com/xnsqpl.png

Woof, I see some high risks for flooding in my crystal ball...

lot of places east of us that's the last thing they need

[Haris]

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/zGVBTf7/Screen-Shot-2019-02-04-at-11-35-15-PM.png [/url]

fake news

also for the snow starved DFW folks it has light snow on Valentines Day

Only 9 days away!!!

[Brent]

Euro also has a little snow in DFW Valentines Day

Again only 9 days away!!!

[KatDaddy]

It would be epic if the Houston-Galveston areas receive another 20 inches on Feb. 14-15 like the 1895 Valentine's Snowstorm but it aint gonna happen.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really dense fog this morning. It’s been a while since I’ve seen fog this heavy.

[weatherdude1108]

Bergstrom and SA and under threat of breaking record high minimum temps. Roller coaster.

978
FXUS64 KEWX 051001
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
401 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The short term portion of the forecast will continue to be
punctuated by periods of fog, light rain/drizzle, overcast skies, and
much above normal warmth. 3 AM temperatures across South Central
Texas ranged from the mid 50s to upper 60s and cloud cover will help
keep these temperatures from changing too much over the next few
hours. If Austin Bergstrom`s and San Antonio`s temperatures do not
fall below 62 and 66 respectively before sunrise, both locations have
the potential to tie or set new record high minimum temperatures
today. A listing of the record high minimum temperatures for the
South Central Texas climate sites is available in the Climate section
below.

Aircraft soundings out of San Antonio late last night showed a
capping inversion located around 900 MB, with a completely saturated
profile beneath that as the region remains under a persistent warm
air advection regime. Forecast soundings for Austin, San Antonio,
and Del Rio all indicate this low level moisture profile lingering
through mid to late morning, allowing for another gray and damp start
for the region. Regional visibilities remain low again this morning
and have made no changes to the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory with the
morning forecast package. High resolution guidance indicates that
this fog may again linger west of Highway 281 into the late morning
hours as daytime mixing slowly commences. Despite cloudy skies, warm
air advection and weak mixing will allow for temperatures to climb
into the low to mid 70s. A few light sprinkles may be able to skirt
areas east of a Bastrop to Cuero line this afternoon with the
remainder the region just experiencing cloudy and muggy conditions
today.

Early morning surface analysis shows a nearly stationary cold front
stretching from the Texas Panhandle along the Red River into
Arkansas. Very little movement of this boundary is expected within
the short term portion of the forecast, but a surface low developing
along this boundary tonight will help to strengthen southerly surface
flow across eastern portions of the region. This may help limit
overall fog potential for the Austin and potentially San Antonio
metros, promoting more of a low cloud deck than areas of fog. A
weaker surface pressure gradient closer towards the Rio Grande will
still mean a fog threat (some potentially dense again) persists west
of Highway 281 overnight. Otherwise, periods of drizzle will again be
possible with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s again
potentially tying or breaking record high minimum temperatures.

An upper trough axis swinging across the Four Corners region on
Wednesday will do little to nudge the stationary front along the Red
River. Warm air advection ahead of the front may again promote a few
isolated sprinkles during the morning hours and afternoon highs in
the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
As the upper trough swings into the Southern Plains Wednesday night
and Thursday, it will send two cold fronts into the region.
Increasing warm air advection Thursday night ahead of the first,
Pacific-type front will allow for widespread light rain or drizzle
again. Surface wind speeds may be too strong to allow for a
significant fog threat outside of the Rio Grande Plains as a result
of this strengthening advection. This Pacific-type cold front is
expected to reach the Hill Country by sunrise Thursday, clearing the
Interstate 35 corridor by midday and the remainder of the region by
sunset. Aided by disturbances embedded in the flow aloft and a
subtropical upper jet skirting the region, surface convergence along
the cold front will allow for a line of showers with embedded
thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it sweeps from
northwest to southeast. The overall speed of the front will keep rain
totals minimal and generally under one-quarter of an inch as this
system clears the region. Wednesday night lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s will only warm into the mid 60s during the day Thursday
behind the Pacific front.

Much colder air is expected to arrive Thursday night as the
secondary cold front (currently stalled across the Southern Plains)
gets an extra nudge from the base of the upper trough axis. Stronger
cold air advection behind this front will result in lows falling into
the low 30s to mid 40s by Friday morning. A deepening post-frontal
layer may promote some increasing overrunning on Friday, possibly
aided by some convergence around 700 MB as the upper trough axis
continues to translate northeast. Best chances for periods of light
rain from overrunning appear to spread into the region from the south
on Saturday and Sunday. Another disturbance approaching the region
from the west early next week may further increase rain chances for
the region on Monday. Much below normal temperatures are expected
Friday and Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s with high
temperatures gradually warming back into the 60s to low 70s Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
[color=#FF0000]Temperatures much above seasonal normals are forecast to persist
through Wednesday, with some locations seeing near record high
minimum temperatures. Record high minimum temperatures for today and
tomorrow for the four South Central Texas climate locations are
included below.

FEBRUARY 5 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
LOCATION RECORD HI MIN YEAR
Austin Bergstrom 62 1958
Austin Camp Mabry 72 1911
San Antonio 66 1927
Del Rio 65 1999

FEBRUARY 6 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
LOCATION RECORD HI MIN YEAR
Austin Bergstrom 68 2017
Austin Camp Mabry 67 2011
San Antonio 67 2017
Del Rio 64 1957[/color]

[wxman57]

It would be epic if the Houston-Galveston areas receive another 20 inches on Feb. 14-15 like the 1895 Valentine's Snowstorm but it aint gonna happen.

Epic is one word for it. Disastrous might be another. It would likely mean days of below-freezing temps, resulting in busted pipes in many homes/businesses and in the streets. Traffic would be shut down for days. Maybe we could wish for just a couple of inches?

Meanwhile, the weather is quite pleasant across Houston today.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy National Weatherperson's day everyone! On a ski trip in northern New Mexico for the week where it's currently snowing!

[srainhoutx]

Today in SE Texas Weather History:

February 5, 1986:
A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. Total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

[Portastorm]

Happy National Weatherperson's day everyone! On a ski trip in northern New Mexico for the week where it's currently snowing!

Oh, now that is cruel! You just had to tell us that it's snowing where you are.

I'm going to direct state officials to not let you back into Texas without bringing some snow with you.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy National Weatherperson's day everyone! On a ski trip in northern New Mexico for the week where it's currently snowing!

Oh, now that is cruel! You just had to tell us that it's snowing where you are.

I'm going to direct state officials to not let you back into Texas without bringing some snow with you.

I'm sorry Porta! I will try my best to bring some cold and snow back with me

[weatherdude1108]

Since not much is going on in Texas Winter-wise (in fact is feels more like April), my cohort (who has in-laws out in California) shared some information about the incredible snows they have had out there. My Aunt has a cabin in Silver Lake in the Sierras, but they close it up during the Winter, along with the other cabins on that tract, because it's hilly and dangerous with a large mountain behind them. Some places around there like the resorts stay open.

My cohort wrote this:

Incredible amounts of snow have fallen throughout parts of the Mountain West since last Friday after a one-two punch from winter storms Kai and Lucian. The Sierra Nevada, straddling the border between California and Nevada, has been particularly hard-hit, where one ski resort tallied 6 feet of snow in just one day.
Taking that crown is June Mountain, east of Yosemite National Park. June Mountain reported 72 inches of new snow in the 24 hours ending 9 a.m. PST Sunday morning.

At least five ski resorts in the eastern Sierra and Tahoe closed Monday because of blizzard conditions. June Mountain Ski Resort, which saw 6 to 8 feet of new snow, and Kirkwood Mountain Resort, with a foot of new snow, were both closed for the day.
Most runs and the Main Lodge at Mammoth Mountain in Mammoth Lakes, with nearly 7 feet of new snow, closed Monday. In the Tahoe area, Squaw Valley and Alpine resorts closed.

As the snow pushed east, Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak closed all state offices in Carson City Monday afternoon, the Associated Press reported. The offices in Carson City, Washoe County and Douglas County weren't planning to open until 10 a.m. Tuesday.

I shared a pic from the Silver Lake Resort store and my brothers shared a pic or two from the June Lake Brewery FB site.

https://www.facebook.com/JuneLakeBrewin ... ezAnQ3uzwW

[orangeblood]

A similar MJO propagation the Euro is forecasting delivered the greatest snow storm in DFW history Feb 2010...not insinuating the same thing will happen, just pointing out the similarities!!!

JFM 2010


Current MJO forecast

[Texas Snow]

The type of snows weatherdude1108 posted are what doomed the Donner Party. This time of the year in the Sierra Nevada's create epic amounts of snow, that year in particular with a persistant pineapple express. I read a book on it a couple years ago then went to Donner State park shortly after while I was at Lake Tahoe. That is crippling snow with today's comforts and technology. Try a wagon or quickly constructed tiny cabin with limited supplies. I cant even imagine.

[snowpocalypse]

In the midst of our heat wave, Seattle was crippled for a day, and looks like possibly more on the way end of the week.

[Haris]

Most models now show some winter PTYPE Friday down here. Likely sleet pellets