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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
TT, i dont mean to be on Brennan's side. I think he is right about the weather of 2005. I have noticed that the weather transfers from cold pattern to warmer one faster since 80s. I dont think 1993 is worth because it's only 1 year. We will have much more evidence if we have more than 3 years that are the same as 1993.
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TT-SEA
1941 is also a good match.
O.K... just to keep you updated... we are officially above normal for April now. Through today:
Average April temperature: 50.2
April 2005 (so far): 50.5
If the NWS forecast for the next two days is perfect we will end up at 50.8 degrees. Hard to believe after all the talk about an unbelievable cold April... that we end up above normal. Ironic.
I mention this because if Snow_Wizzard is correct in his theory... a cold April is "key". He mentioned this MANY times. In fact he was hoping this was going to be one of the coldest Aprils in the last 25 years.
Nobody addresses the fact that this huge piece of the puzzle is now missing. Why??
Where is the accountability? If this month is so important... then lets hear what happens now after a warm April??
In order to be credible in your predictions... you need to address our warm April. So now a cold April is not important??
Why should we believe the "theory of the day". Now we should focus on something totally different? Just forget what was so important just two weeks ago??
In a couple weeks it will change again. And through it all... we are most likely heading towards a warmer and drier than normal winter.
BTW - debating is fun. Why are certain people so obsessed with cold and overly-dramatic??
O.K... just to keep you updated... we are officially above normal for April now. Through today:
Average April temperature: 50.2
April 2005 (so far): 50.5
If the NWS forecast for the next two days is perfect we will end up at 50.8 degrees. Hard to believe after all the talk about an unbelievable cold April... that we end up above normal. Ironic.
I mention this because if Snow_Wizzard is correct in his theory... a cold April is "key". He mentioned this MANY times. In fact he was hoping this was going to be one of the coldest Aprils in the last 25 years.
Nobody addresses the fact that this huge piece of the puzzle is now missing. Why??
Where is the accountability? If this month is so important... then lets hear what happens now after a warm April??
In order to be credible in your predictions... you need to address our warm April. So now a cold April is not important??
Why should we believe the "theory of the day". Now we should focus on something totally different? Just forget what was so important just two weeks ago??
In a couple weeks it will change again. And through it all... we are most likely heading towards a warmer and drier than normal winter.
BTW - debating is fun. Why are certain people so obsessed with cold and overly-dramatic??
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Guest
What the heck... I never told TT not to voice his opinions. I just wish he would try throwing in some facts with his bashing...
TT, why don't you let go of snowwizzard's early month hope for a below normal month temperature wise... That was when the temperatures were really far below normal and there was no pattern change for the foreseeable future. You have been giving him a hard time since.
TT i see you still aren't answering any questions... And i see you have another year up there... So you have 1941, and 1993... If that is the only years you can come up with, wouldn't you say that is just a freak thing that happens every 45 years or so?
Why won't you answer my question about the NWS having so much trouble with the weather all month? You tell any NWS forecaster that this year is normal and they will look at you in disbelief... This year is far from normal and you should know that by now...
TT, why don't you let go of snowwizzard's early month hope for a below normal month temperature wise... That was when the temperatures were really far below normal and there was no pattern change for the foreseeable future. You have been giving him a hard time since.
TT i see you still aren't answering any questions... And i see you have another year up there... So you have 1941, and 1993... If that is the only years you can come up with, wouldn't you say that is just a freak thing that happens every 45 years or so?
Why won't you answer my question about the NWS having so much trouble with the weather all month? You tell any NWS forecaster that this year is normal and they will look at you in disbelief... This year is far from normal and you should know that by now...
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TT-SEA
Again today... 1993 is on the analog list.
The spring of 1951 featured a strong La Nina... the temperature and precipitation patterns were totally different. It is comical to compare. So narrowly focused.
Brennan---
I do not care if the current pattern is IDENTICAL across the entire Earth to a couple days in 1951. Without supporting global indexes and ENSO conditions its just a coincidence.
The analog years change every day. How we can be exactly the same as all of those years???? Even if the pattern did match up for a couple days.
However... 1993 keeps showing up. With all the supporting global indexes and almost identical ENSO conditions... that has to mean something.
WAY more than one pattern match to a couple days in the spring of 1951.
Nobody addresses this obvious point. Why???
I am really surpised at the lack of science behind the predictions of Snow_Wizzard and Brennan.
I am solidly supporting my position. All you have to offer is that the pattern matched up to one weekend in 1951? Trust me... next week we will be matching a totally different year.
The spring of 1951 featured a strong La Nina... the temperature and precipitation patterns were totally different. It is comical to compare. So narrowly focused.
Brennan---
I do not care if the current pattern is IDENTICAL across the entire Earth to a couple days in 1951. Without supporting global indexes and ENSO conditions its just a coincidence.
The analog years change every day. How we can be exactly the same as all of those years???? Even if the pattern did match up for a couple days.
However... 1993 keeps showing up. With all the supporting global indexes and almost identical ENSO conditions... that has to mean something.
WAY more than one pattern match to a couple days in the spring of 1951.
Nobody addresses this obvious point. Why???
I am really surpised at the lack of science behind the predictions of Snow_Wizzard and Brennan.
I am solidly supporting my position. All you have to offer is that the pattern matched up to one weekend in 1951? Trust me... next week we will be matching a totally different year.
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You are missing my point TT, all i am saying about 1951 is that this pattern during the last couple days is similar to the one of 1951. I am not basing anything on it.. I was just trying to say that it is just another piece of evidence that we are headed back to a colder climate phase... Along with the last 4 months of evidence. You are the one throwing things way out of line with this... I said what i was trying to say about 1951 and you go way out on a limb and start talking about 1993 and what not... Majority of analogs have been pre 1975...
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TT-SEA
I keep going on about April being above normal... because a cold April was SOOOOOOO important for a cold winter.
So what does a warm April mean??
How can it be so critical two weeks ago and now not mean anything??
A credible person would come to this forum and say that our warm April is much more likely to lead to a warm winter. That would be consistent with their argument from two weeks ago.
But no.... now we are narrowly-focused on the pattern matching two days in 1951. Without any supporting indexes or ENSO conditions.
In all seriousness... you have to understand my point here.
So what does a warm April mean??
How can it be so critical two weeks ago and now not mean anything??
A credible person would come to this forum and say that our warm April is much more likely to lead to a warm winter. That would be consistent with their argument from two weeks ago.
But no.... now we are narrowly-focused on the pattern matching two days in 1951. Without any supporting indexes or ENSO conditions.
In all seriousness... you have to understand my point here.
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Guest
I am not narrowly focused... A few days ago i was just making a small comment that the current upper air pattern was similar to that of April 20th 1951. I wasn't trying to start a debate...
And to have an april with a normal average temperature doesn't hurt us as bad as a cold april helps us... I don't think anyone here has looked up a certain sequence that leads to WARM winters is there? A warm april doesn't hurt us it just ruins the streak of things that were all for a cold winter next year. The cold winter next year is still on...
About the 1993 thing you got going on... You are making it sound like things will happen identical to that year. Well just as well, you should be putting 1988 on there too. That year also had similar characteristics monthly average wise... When looking for years to compare to this one, you have to look at several years to get a general sense of what the most likely scenario for the next winter would be, if you are basing it strictly on 1993 and saying that its most likely going to be a warm and dry winter next year you are ludacris... THink about it...
And to have an april with a normal average temperature doesn't hurt us as bad as a cold april helps us... I don't think anyone here has looked up a certain sequence that leads to WARM winters is there? A warm april doesn't hurt us it just ruins the streak of things that were all for a cold winter next year. The cold winter next year is still on...
About the 1993 thing you got going on... You are making it sound like things will happen identical to that year. Well just as well, you should be putting 1988 on there too. That year also had similar characteristics monthly average wise... When looking for years to compare to this one, you have to look at several years to get a general sense of what the most likely scenario for the next winter would be, if you are basing it strictly on 1993 and saying that its most likely going to be a warm and dry winter next year you are ludacris... THink about it...
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TT-SEA
What other evidence do you have that we are heading into a cold phase??
A match to two days in 1951 is not evidence.
The entire spring was totally different.
A similar spring to that of 1951 across North America would be good evidence.
Like... flooding, historic rains in in Southern California. Which only happens when the pattern allows a certain jet stream configuration.
Nothing like that in 1951.
Its a total mismatch. That is not evidence.
We could be heading into a cold phase. But nothing you are showing me from the early 1950's points in that direction. And you have not shown me much.
This spring is amazingly similar to 1993 and that did not bring us into a cold phase. So I am not going to excited about a year with no similarities outside of one weekend bringing us into a cold phase.
You are starting with the assumption that we are heading into a cold phase and then trying to find little bits of evidence. That is not scientific.
I did not say you cannot like cold air. But being obsessed with it robs you of objectivity and credibility.
A match to two days in 1951 is not evidence.
The entire spring was totally different.
A similar spring to that of 1951 across North America would be good evidence.
Like... flooding, historic rains in in Southern California. Which only happens when the pattern allows a certain jet stream configuration.
Nothing like that in 1951.
Its a total mismatch. That is not evidence.
We could be heading into a cold phase. But nothing you are showing me from the early 1950's points in that direction. And you have not shown me much.
This spring is amazingly similar to 1993 and that did not bring us into a cold phase. So I am not going to excited about a year with no similarities outside of one weekend bringing us into a cold phase.
You are starting with the assumption that we are heading into a cold phase and then trying to find little bits of evidence. That is not scientific.
I did not say you cannot like cold air. But being obsessed with it robs you of objectivity and credibility.
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Guest
Do you have a problem with short term memory or loss of brain cells? WHAT HAVE ME AND SNOW WIZZARD BEEN TALKING ABOUT ALL YEAR? A CHANGE TO A COLDER PHASE.... Or did you forget? we have put forth lots of evidence in the last 3 months. I cannot believe you say that we have not given any evidence.
AND FOR THE 50TH TIME, I AM NOT BASING US GOING INTO A COLD PHASE ON 1951, IT IS JUST ANOTHER EXAMPLE THAT THINGS ARE CHANGING...
AND FOR THE 50TH TIME, I AM NOT BASING US GOING INTO A COLD PHASE ON 1951, IT IS JUST ANOTHER EXAMPLE THAT THINGS ARE CHANGING...
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TT-SEA
Not starting a debate??
You came on here touting this pattern match like it was the final piece of the puzzle.
You were attacking me with this evidence... like the match to two days in 1951 invalidated everything I have said.
I know that 1988 is a bad match to overall global indexes. And the weather in North America in the spring of 1988 was totally different.
We could completely veer away from 1993 later. But right now that is as good as it gets. The global indexes and weather patterns are stunningly similar.
You came on here touting this pattern match like it was the final piece of the puzzle.
You were attacking me with this evidence... like the match to two days in 1951 invalidated everything I have said.
I know that 1988 is a bad match to overall global indexes. And the weather in North America in the spring of 1988 was totally different.
We could completely veer away from 1993 later. But right now that is as good as it gets. The global indexes and weather patterns are stunningly similar.
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TT-SEA
Another piece of evidence?? Its pure coincidence. There is no other supporting facts from that year so it has to be thrown out. Do you understand the scientific process at all?
You cannot ignore all the attributes of one year and pick one obvious coincidence and tout it as proof. You were adamant about this being so meaningful.
You have been talking about a switch to a cold phase for 3 months.
But have shown almost no evidence to support it.
Seriously.
I love weather. If we are truly heading into a cold phase... I will embrace it. I just want to know the truth. Not your fantasy... but the truth.
Your fantasy may be the truth... but you have not proven it at all.
And if you do SCIENTIFICALLY... I will love it. All I want is reality.
You cannot ignore all the attributes of one year and pick one obvious coincidence and tout it as proof. You were adamant about this being so meaningful.
You have been talking about a switch to a cold phase for 3 months.
But have shown almost no evidence to support it.
Seriously.
I love weather. If we are truly heading into a cold phase... I will embrace it. I just want to know the truth. Not your fantasy... but the truth.
Your fantasy may be the truth... but you have not proven it at all.
And if you do SCIENTIFICALLY... I will love it. All I want is reality.
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TT-SEA
Despite some claims... the 1941 El Nino was moderate at best. The key to this is the SOI index which determines the strength of an El Nino.
1941-42 was much weaker than 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Much closer to 2004-05.
No year is perfect. And monthly averages can be slightly off because of timing. For example.. the warm spell we had in early March of 2005 could have happened a week earlier in 1993 putting it into February.
No year is perfect... but 1993 is really close.
1941-42 was much weaker than 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Much closer to 2004-05.
No year is perfect. And monthly averages can be slightly off because of timing. For example.. the warm spell we had in early March of 2005 could have happened a week earlier in 1993 putting it into February.
No year is perfect... but 1993 is really close.
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