SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[jasons2k]

I have not seen a bust this bad in a long time!

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Location Time(cst) Sky/Weather Temp.(ºF)
Houston Intercontinental Airport 14:53 Fog/Mist 53F

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts in a very late AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING OVER NORTHERN ZONES EXPECTED TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG HOWEVER WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS CWFA WITH VERY LOW
DEWPOINT/TEMP SPREAD OVER THE AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FOG OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WE DID
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CWFA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY
AS MOI SURE SURGE OVER THE REGION FROM GULF. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING
SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHRA ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSRA
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH COAST TUESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE AND PUSH RAPIDLY OFFSHORE.
INITIALLY COLD AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH RELATIVELY WARM MOIST
AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INLAND AT LEAST THROUGH MID DAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER CWFA MID TO LATE WEEK
IF GFS IS CORRECT.
37

[southerngale]

No kidding, Jason. High of 56° here... cooler than I expected.

I don't know what it's like over there, but with all the recent rains, it's a soppy mess here. Lots of standing water, mushy, muddy ground, etc. There haven't been any flooding rains... just a lot of light to moderate to occasionally heavy rain, pretty often, with no time to dry out. Anyway, I just saw that a flood watch was issued here.

It doesn't look like a very long (possible) event.

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ...

.RICH CARIBBEAN AIR WILL RIDE IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MID
EVENING MONDAY...LIFTING THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR...SETTING OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE
FALLING ON SATURATED GROUND. RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS THE
CANADIAN FRONT EXITS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY
MIDMORNING TUESDAY.

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ201-215-216-140700-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0005.091215T0000Z-091215T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-HARDIN-
JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
333 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...
ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN AND
VERMILION. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE.

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* NUMEROUS PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE FALLING ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAINS. MEAN AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING BY MIDMORNING
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS FROM 3
TO 5 INCHES. RAPID SURFACE RUNOFF IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[vbhoutex]

I have not seen a bust this bad in a long time!

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Location Time(cst) Sky/Weather Temp.(ºF)
Houston Intercontinental Airport 14:53 Fog/Mist 53F

The bust was huge for a lot of the local mets, if not all, including NWS. I'm not sure what they all missed, but I think ALL of them did. I did not hear one that thought we would stay cool all day.

[Diva]

No kidding, Jason. High of 56° here... cooler than I expected.

I don't know what it's like over there, but with all the recent rains, it's a soppy mess here. Lots of standing water, mushy, muddy ground, etc. There haven't been any flooding rains... just a lot of light to moderate to occasionally heavy rain, pretty often, with no time to dry out. Anyway, I just saw that a flood watch was issued here.

It doesn't look like a very long (possible) event.

I'll second that! It is a sloppy mess out here in Orange County too! I dare not walk in my yard for fear of sinking in the mucky, muddy mess and getting stuck permanently! And the sun.....I would LOVE to see a day of sunshine. Sunny and cold, that would be nice.

[jasons2k]

I have not seen a bust this bad in a long time!

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Location Time(cst) Sky/Weather Temp.(ºF)
Houston Intercontinental Airport 14:53 Fog/Mist 53F

The bust was huge for a lot of the local mets, if not all, including NWS. I'm not sure what they all missed, but I think ALL of them did. I did not hear one that thought we would stay cool all day.

Yep, everyone thought the fog would break before noon and the sun would warm us up...and it just didn't happen. It's amazing that one little parameter like that can make a 20-degree difference.

[Agua]

With all due respect to our mets, winter weather must be just terribly difficult to forecast for the deep south; last Christmas Holiday period, I tried to plan my duck hunting by the forecasts and it was wrong by 7-15 degrees every day, 16 hours out, for about a 5 day period.

[vbhoutex]

With all due respect to our mets, winter weather must be just terribly difficult to forecast for the deep south; last Christmas Holiday period, I tried to plan my duck hunting by the forecasts and it was wrong by 7-15 degrees every day, 16 hours out, for about a 5 day period.

They have all my respect and then some. My comments were just a statement of fact and nothing else. Having followed and "predicted" weather for many years as an amateur(still am a rank amateur) I know how totally true your statement is, whether we are talking Winter weather or tropical weather.

[Agua]

vbhoutex:

I was not intimating that you, or anyone, was being disrespectful to mets. To the contrary, the apparently poorly expressed sentiment I was attempting to convey was that winter forecasts for the deep south so frequently vary from the reality on the ground that they are largely unreliable (and that's being kind ) .

I apologize for any confusion.

[vbhoutex]

vbhoutex:

I was not intimating that you, or anyone, was being disrespectful to mets. To the contrary, the apparently poorly expressed sentiment I was attempting to convey was that winter forecasts for the deep south so frequently vary from the reality on the ground that they are largely unreliable (and that's being kind ) .

I apologize for any confusion.

No apology needed. I figured that was exactly what you were saying. Part of the reason for my post was a general kudos to mets and what they are up against and to clarify that I wasn't criticizing them. Too many people in this world are quick to criticize and yet not offer a better solution, forecast, whatever... so I wanted to give them kudos that they too often don't get. Like I said in the previous post to that one I am still wondering what virtually everyone I know/listen to missed with that forecast. It had been in place for several days. Something in the atmosphere didn't move like it was expected. I would guess some lower level wind flow did not materialize as expected.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I'll second those sentiments

And I apologize if it seemed as if I was knocking the mets, or singling-out the NWS, as I wasn't. They just have the easiest forecast to copy/paste since it's plain text

What I meant by 'worst bust in a long time' = they are spot-on most of the time. It was surprising, to say the least, the miss was so big by all this past weekend.

[Agua]

Here's my best guess as to why the forecasts flop so frequently: wholly inadequate data collection to perform the sort of precise forecast mets attempt to provide. Stated differently, unreasonable public expectation as to what meteorology can do. I believe that's a media-created phenomenon by presenting forecasts as a pretty black / white, paint by the numbers type of proposition.

When forecasts fail, mets are usually pretty good at telling us what happened on a post hoc basis, but they simply do not have, and likely never will have, adequate environmental data to improve things substantially in any foreseeable time frame, if ever.

[jasons2k]

FWIW I don't think they "flop" that frequenetly. I would say that because they are all so accurate most of the time, when they do happen to flop, it seems like a huge miss.

And sometimes it can be. A 15-20 degree miss is pretty big. But most people don't understand the finer details in that, in this case, a thin layer of fog made all the difference. If it had lifted as forecast, we probably would have 'broken-out' and charged up to 70F.

I think over time and over the years the forecasts are indeed getting better and more accurate. The models are better, we have ever-increasing processing power, mets know & learn more, and just like any field, the work done by those in the past provide a foundation for future improvement.

[vbhoutex]

Here's my best guess as to why the forecasts flop so frequently: wholly inadequate data collection to perform the sort of precise forecast mets attempt to provide. Stated differently, unreasonable public expectation as to what meteorology can do. I believe that's a media-created phenomenon by presenting forecasts as a pretty black / white, paint by the numbers type of proposition.

When forecasts fail, mets are usually pretty good at telling us what happened on a post hoc basis, but they simply do not have, and likely never will have, adequate environmental data to improve things substantially in any foreseeable time frame, if ever.

This needs to be the last post concerning this in this thread or we can start another thread since we have managed to hijack this one.
Truer words were never spoken Aqua!!! As they say "the devil is in the details", and as you stated there will never be enough detailed data to have "perfect"or even "near perfect" forecasts all the time. I could go on and on about this, but basically we would need a very tight grid of reporting stations and sampling to accomplish much better forecasts than we get now and the cost for what would be needed would be way past prohibitive.

[srainhoutx]

Happy Holidays SE TX/SW LA folk...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WzAyderAKU[/youtube]

[vbhoutex]

Tease!!!LOL!!! I'll add to it. Next several days, if not the next few weeks could be interesting, at least temp wise. I still think some of the models are not doing well with the dense cold air to our North.

[attallaman]

Happy Holidays SE TX/SW LA folk...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WzAyderAKU[/youtube]

Nice video to cheer me up on such a bad night here, the rain continues to pour, lightning and thunder and more is forecasted for tomorrow. I can't wait for the sun to shine again. This rain and near zero visibility fog has been a major downer but at least where I live my property is high and dry, thankfully no flooding.

[Jagno]

We were seeing some major street flooding Monday afternoon. A couple of folks borrowed DH's truck to go into the city to pick up their kids from school and daycare because their cars wouldn't make it. By evening it had stopped and/or slowed down long enough for some of the roads to drain off somewhat. The grounds are at the 100% saturation point so any additional rains will just sit until that north wind arrives some time today to begin drying things out a little. Wrecker companies are having a great Christmas income wise.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Active pattern remains overhead with continued rain chances and cold weather.



Strong cold front pushing off the coast this morning with cold air advection lagging behind the main surface boundary. Dense sea fog has been forced to the coastal counties and offshore waters…and this will be pushed out to sea by increasing N winds today. Upper trough back to our west will induce another overrunning event across SE TX through early Thursday…so no sun is expected until Thursday afternoon at the earliest. This trough will force a NW Gulf surface low yet again this winter season…although this event looks to occur more over the central Gulf so impacts along the TX coast look lower than with the previous systems.



For today highs have already been reached and it is downhill from here with upstream observations showing temperatures already in the 40’s at College Station, Huntsville, and Brenham. Cold air advection, clouds, and rainfall will stunt any warming trend and temperatures will fall into the low 50’s and upper 40’s areawide this afternoon. Upper trough to the west and highly active sub-tropical jet will increase upglide over this shallow cold dome allowing showers to develop over the region. Will favor the areas along and SE of the US 59 corridor where axis of greatest moisture and pegged jet energy looks greatest.



Next system digs deep into Mexico tonight and Wednesday and crosses S TX early Thursday. Impacts appear mainly offshore, although latest GFS and WRF do show rain chances creeping back into areas S of I-10 for Wednesday into early Thursday. Will go with 50% S of IAH after a brief break this evening and early Wednesday. With thick clouds and cold air advection will see temperatures struggle in the 40’s much of Wednesday and in the 50’s through the upcoming weekend. Surface low deepens to near 1008mb over the central Gulf and this will support strong ENE to NE winds over our coastal waters with increasing seas and tides. Extra-tropical storm surge model shows tides running 1-3 feet above normal by early Thursday. While close, this should not cause any major problems and will be nothing new as tides have run at these levels many times this fall with several of these NW Gulf surface lows.



System will exit east of the area late Thursday and if everything goes as planned the sun will make a return for Friday. Upper level pattern appears to turn more NW over the weekend with a clear drying trend which should help keep skies more sunny than cloudy. Next front will be due in on Friday night as western US ridge amplifies sending another piece of cold air southward. Feel it is best to undercut the GFS numbers for the weekend and go with highs in the 50’s even with sun as the model has not done well with these shallow air masses riding down the plains.



Long range:

Models continue to hint at the idea of some significant cold moving southward the week of Christmas. The GFS has been hinting at a favorable upper air pattern along with several of its ensemble members while the ECMWF has been much more consistent in showing a very cold pattern. No doubt that the source region of this air (NW Canada) is very cold at the moment with many -30 to -40F readings in this area. Main question will be if this air mass is dislodged and if it drops southward or southeastward. For now will trend toward the ECMWF and expect to see the GFS go in that direction over the next few days but likely remaining too warm. We shall see!

[Sjones]

So are the models still showing southeast texas possibly receiving 1.5-2 days of snow in the near future?