Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley is playing with my emotions:

Hmmmm...we are already down to 37°F in Fort Worth and 39°F in Cleburne this evening. That is 2 degrees colder than expected in both locations.

Now, you might be thinking, so what? Well, remember what we have been saying for the past several days: A predicted temperature that is off by as little as 1°F could be the difference between rain and snow. So, stay tuned for a possible - though NOT guaranteed - shift in the forecast snow line out west.

The new datasets tonight will let us know if this is a temporary fluctuation in the temperature or if it is a real trend.

[BrokenGlass]

Steve McCauley is playing with my emotions:

Hmmmm...we are already down to 37°F in Fort Worth and 39°F in Cleburne this evening. That is 2 degrees colder than expected in both locations.

Now, you might be thinking, so what? Well, remember what we have been saying for the past several days: A predicted temperature that is off by as little as 1°F could be the difference between rain and snow. So, stay tuned for a possible - though NOT guaranteed - shift in the forecast snow line out west.

The new datasets tonight will let us know if this is a temporary fluctuation in the temperature or if it is a real trend.

Well I’ll play...here is the current data for my house in Richardson.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[SnowintheFalls]

Local mets are talking about tonight's weather data showing that most of the snow will be west of Wichita Falls. It seems to be shifting in the wrong direction for all of us.

[Ralph's Weather]

Local mets are talking about tonight's weather data showing that most of the snow will be west of Wichita Falls. It seems to be shifting in the wrong direction for all of us.

WF seems to be in prime position. If anything it could miss to the east. Key will be mid level temps to determine if it will be a mix or all snow.

[Brent]

Local mets are talking about tonight's weather data showing that most of the snow will be west of Wichita Falls. It seems to be shifting in the wrong direction for all of us.

I've been staring at the models all day and I'd be feeling really good in the Falls and Abilene tbh if anything it may be shifting east a little like said above

From reading what some mets are saying I bet there's gonna be some surprise totals west of DFW

[gpsnowman]

Local mets are talking about tonight's weather data showing that most of the snow will be west of Wichita Falls. It seems to be shifting in the wrong direction for all of us.

I've been staring at the models all day and I'd be feeling really good in the Falls and Abilene tbh if anything it may be shifting east a little like said above

From reading what some mets are saying I bet there's gonna be some surprise totals west of DFW

Yep. All the graphics I've seen have Parker county in the mixed zone. Won't take much of a push east for Ft. Worth to see some wet flakes.

[Brent]

Just read the Fort Worth FWD, they mention thundersnow possible and even admit that their forecast in the western zones could be too low, that can't be bad news for areas further west...

Right now we are forecasting 1-4" over the western
zones, but acknowledge that very favorable dynamics associated
with wrap-around precipitation events are in place. This could
yield high snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour and maybe even a
stray rumble of thunder.

[TropicalTundra]

Just read the Fort Worth FWD, they mention thundersnow possible and even admit that their forecast in the western zones could be too low, that can't be bad news for areas further west...

Right now we are forecasting 1-4" over the western
zones, but acknowledge that very favorable dynamics associated
with wrap-around precipitation events are in place. This could
yield high snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour and maybe even a
stray rumble of thunder.

Do you think any snow could fall where I live? Already 7-8 hours ahead of temperature schedule here.

[Brent]

Just read the Fort Worth FWD, they mention thundersnow possible and even admit that their forecast in the western zones could be too low, that can't be bad news for areas further west...

Right now we are forecasting 1-4" over the western
zones, but acknowledge that very favorable dynamics associated
with wrap-around precipitation events are in place. This could
yield high snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour and maybe even a
stray rumble of thunder.

Do you think any snow could fall where I live? Already 7-8 hours ahead of temperature schedule here.

https://i.imgur.com/KdOZoy4.jpg

well of course anything's possible but if you did that would be good for DFW too I'm kind of skeptical but who knows

[SnowintheFalls]

Local mets are talking about tonight's weather data showing that most of the snow will be west of Wichita Falls. It seems to be shifting in the wrong direction for all of us.

I've been staring at the models all day and I'd be feeling really good in the Falls and Abilene tbh if anything it may be shifting east a little like said above

From reading what some mets are saying I bet there's gonna be some surprise totals west of DFW

I wonder what data they are referring to? I am hoping DFW can get some substantial snowfall because your drought has been entirely too long.

[Brent]

Local mets are talking about tonight's weather data showing that most of the snow will be west of Wichita Falls. It seems to be shifting in the wrong direction for all of us.

I've been staring at the models all day and I'd be feeling really good in the Falls and Abilene tbh if anything it may be shifting east a little like said above

From reading what some mets are saying I bet there's gonna be some surprise totals west of DFW

I wonder what data they are referring to? I am hoping DFW can get some substantial snowfall because your drought has been entirely too long.

I wonder if they're just so used to underperforming storms they are skiddish lol remember the storm in February I chased... snowed about half what I expected

now I will say straight up that the snow maps are overdone but even if you cut the totals down by half its still a big snowstorm over there

[Cpv17]

Up to 4.25” of rain here so far.

[somethingfunny]

Steve McCauley is playing with my emotions:

Hmmmm...we are already down to 37°F in Fort Worth and 39°F in Cleburne this evening. That is 2 degrees colder than expected in both locations.

Now, you might be thinking, so what? Well, remember what we have been saying for the past several days: A predicted temperature that is off by as little as 1°F could be the difference between rain and snow. So, stay tuned for a possible - though NOT guaranteed - shift in the forecast snow line out west.

The new datasets tonight will let us know if this is a temporary fluctuation in the temperature or if it is a real trend.

This was a trend I picked up on before the 2010 snow dump... When it all unexpectedly began as snow instead of rain. I don't think we're getting that here in DFW but I think out by Abilene might just get a cold bust.

[TropicalTundra]

WRF-NMM just says “screw it” and pushes the snow farther east. Don’t give up hope yet!

[Texas Snow]

WRF-NMM just says “screw it” and pushes the snow farther east. Don’t give up hope yet!

https://i.imgur.com/UbA40tt.jpg

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, that’s crazy east. I would have a good snow with that. Likely overdone, but will see.

[Brent]

WRF-NMM just says “screw it” and pushes the snow farther east. Don’t give up hope yet!

https://i.imgur.com/UbA40tt.jpg

Unfortunately that's way overdone because this is the best precip frame for DFW with brief snow around Fort Worth. Most of the rest of the metro gets nothing. I want to be wrong so bad but I just don't see it happening here

[Texas Snow]

The latest from Steve McCauley. He’s right it’s a desperate attempt, but I just want to see flakes flying as the new year rings in. Not trying to be greedy, just a beautiful and peaceful start to 2021. Is that too much to ask after this year???

Latest data do suggest - BUT DO NOT GUARANTEE - that wet snowflakes will be possible a little further to the east than the previous post. Specifically, there will be a window of opportunity late tomorrow (Thursday) night for wet snowflakes to be seen in the western portions of the Metroplex (speckled blue areas in Thursday night's forecast graphic below).

Yes, you have to push the data to get this result, but at least it is within the realm of possibilities. There are over 100 ways to do the math on this storm system, and less than 10 of those ways yields the possibility of seeing snow this far east. So, keep expectations low so you aren't overly disappointed. Remember, it only takes a forecast error of 1°F in the predicted temperatures above the ground to change the type of precipitation you see at the ground. There is very little to no room for error.

Specifically, the temperatures at every level (other than the surface, of course) between 1,000 feet and 6,000 feet above the ground are absolutely critical in getting to see wet snowflakes at the ground. Any error made at any point in this critical layer in the atmosphere can have a dramatic difference in the precip type observed at the ground.

One thing that could help increase the snow chances on a local level would be if a thunderstorm were able to pop tomorrow night in the Metroplex. This could temporarily chill the atmosphere just long enough to allow snowflakes to survive all the way to the ground. But good luck in trying to forecast where a rogue thunderstorm might pop in all this cold air.

The dominant precipitation type for the Metroplex, however, will overwhelmingly be just cold rain which will cover 100% of the area throughout the day tomorrow (Thursday). But keep your eyes peeled after 11 PM ... just in case.

You can tell this forecast discussion is for a southern state. Folks up north would probably roll their eyes in disbelief at such a desperate attempt to see snow!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Wouldn't the heavy amounts of rain just bring warmer air down from the mid levels?

[TheProfessor]

Wouldn't the heavy amounts of rain just bring warmer air down from the mid levels?

That depends on the thermo profile. If there's a warm nose in the mid-levels then this would be true. However, in the scenario that it's heaving snow melting into heavy rain, that process can lead to the cooling of the surrounding atmosphere and allow for the possibility of snow making it to the surface. I haven't checked any soundings in detail so I can't tell you which you will see. However, with this system going negatively tilt early on, that suggests warm air advection will be fairly strong, which tends to cause warm noses in the mid levels. DFW would need a pretty significant east shift from the low to get out of the warm air advection.