Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

I like how earlier on all this talk of cold weather was supposed to start this weekend and then stronger arctic outbreaks were supposed to follow. Where is the cold? It seems that the models keep playing with our heads and pushing the future cold weather later and later. I don't buy any of it.
Until it happens I'm not going to believe it. I feel like I'm wasting my time giving my hopes up on something that ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!

Ok, so the pattern change is days away, yet you don't believe it? OK... Look, don't worry. This is for real this time. It is for sure going to cool down, the models are now very consistent, and we are no longer talking about it 10 days ahead. This is just an example of how shocked everyone is going to be in a week, we'll all be wondering where all the warmth has gone.

To me, I would still consider this weekend the gateway to the change. We will fall to 65-70 this weekend, which will be the slow transtition and then a stronger cold front will REALLY change our pattern next Monday. Highs next week should stay below 65, and lows below 45. By mid next week, another cold front will probably drop our highs below 60 and our lows below 40, and from there more and more cold fronts gradually cool us more and more. The change IS coming.

Have you looked at the 12z Euro? Its even colder than that next week. The 12z Euro also as a 1050MB+ high in NW Canada on day 7, diving south, as does the 18z GFS. Both the GFS and EURO seem to want to indicate an arctic outbreak the weekend after this one. It will be interesting to see how things pan out!

[Rieyeuxs]

I still think there's too much faith in the models. I've seen the long term forecasts for Alabama from both the NWS and Accuweather (I know, *gasp*) There's still no "Cold" weather. We are actually forecast to return to more normal temperatures, but from today the 3rd through the 16th, there's forecast of less than a 6 degree temperature variation for 2 weeks. Not that I wouldn't like to seen some of the mosquitoes killed off, but I don't see it coming...

[Tyler]

I still think there's too much faith in the models. I've seen the long term forecasts for Alabama from both the NWS and Accuweather (I know, *gasp*) There's still no "Cold" weather. We are actually forecast to return to more normal temperatures, but from today the 3rd through the 16th, there's forecast of less than a 6 degree temperature variation for 2 weeks. Not that I wouldn't like to seen some of the mosquitoes killed off, but I don't see it coming...

If you don't see it coming, then you are in for a suprise... Don't say I didn't warn you.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z Ensembles look awfully cold east of the rockies...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20212.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

theres no turning back now. The groundhog was right...winter will return.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I like how earlier on all this talk of cold weather was supposed to start this weekend and then stronger arctic outbreaks were supposed to follow. Where is the cold? It seems that the models keep playing with our heads and pushing the future cold weather later and later. I don't buy any of it.
Until it happens I'm not going to believe it. I feel like I'm wasting my time giving my hopes up on something that ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!

Ok, so the pattern change is days away, yet you don't believe it? OK... Look, don't worry. This is for real this time. It is for sure going to cool down, the models are now very consistent, and we are no longer talking about it 10 days ahead. This is just an example of how shocked everyone is going to be in a week, we'll all be wondering where all the warmth has gone.

To me, I would still consider this weekend the gateway to the change. We will fall to 65-70 this weekend, which will be the slow transtition and then a stronger cold front will REALLY change our pattern next Monday. Highs next week should stay below 65, and lows below 45. By mid next week, another cold front will probably drop our highs below 60 and our lows below 40, and from there more and more cold fronts gradually cool us more and more. The change IS coming.

Have you looked at the 12z Euro? Its even colder than that next week. The 12z Euro also as a 1050MB+ high in NW Canada on day 7, diving south, as does the 18z GFS. Both the GFS and EURO seem to want to indicate an arctic outbreak the weekend after this one. It will be interesting to see how things pan out!

Day 7 does show cold air taking over in western Canada, with everything east of there in the deep-freezer. If that ridge can get going in the west, things will get interesting to say the least.

[Brent]

theres no turning back now. The groundhog was right...winter will return.

The groundhog in Atlanta did not see his shadow.

[Tyler]

No doubt about it, next week will be cool, with seasonable temps returning, with even a few low temps below normal, as the dynamic pattern change continues to take shape. Ridge builds in the west as, as trough settles in the east, cold, dry north flow develops over Texas.

Now, there is an important feature on tonight's 0z GFS, that will determine if we get an arctic outbreak or not next weekend.

Now look at this, 0z GFS 132hour, note that High pressure area (1024MB) getting itself together in Alaska:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

Then at hour 174, its a 1046MB high, as bitterly cold arctic air soothes into the US:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
Also note the ridge in the west beggining to dig into Alaska.

Now, if that feature really does develop, and how strong the high becomes, how much ridging we get into the west and its position, determines just how strong an arctic outbreak we get through here... We need to continue to watch the models. Its getting really interesting now...

[Portastorm]

Nice post Tyler!

Yup, that ridge in the West will really dictate a lot for us. Will be fun to watch.

[Brent]

Then at hour 174, its a 1046MB high, as bitterly cold arctic air soothes into the US:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
Also note the ridge in the west beggining to dig into Alaska.

That looks COLD.

Also looks quite cold here on Sunday. It's a pretty quick shot though, but it don't return to the 60's anytime soon.

[richtrav]

Xtremeweatherguy, why would you not expect Houston to be colder than Orlando in the winter? It is farther north after all, the latitude (and temps) are closer to the Florida panhandle. You don't get a central Florida type climate here until you get to the southern part of Texas, with about half the rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Xtremeweatherguy, why would you not expect Houston to be colder than Orlando in the winter? It is farther north after all, the latitude (and temps) are closer to the Florida panhandle. You don't get a central Florida type climate here until you get to the southern part of Texas, with about half the rain.

Well when I lived in Fl...I would always hear from my friends in Houston about how their climate was just like that of central Florida and how they never got snow or ice and rarely a freeze. Then, when I was moving here I did research and learned that they didn't know what they were talking about. Also, regarding the posts I made earlier...I think I may have misread a few points made in the previous posts and I may have mistaken a few of the comments about southern TX for comments about Houston. I was posting on lots of threads at that time and was rushing through my reading. Simple mistake.

[m_ru]

IT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE COLD IS NOT COMING!!!!!!!

(reverse phsycology)

[Tyler]

The NWS Norman, OK did an excellent job in their morning AFD describing the upcoming pattern change:

NEXT ISSUE IS THE MUCH-ADVERTIZED PATTERN CHANGE THAT EVENTUALLY
WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN E-PACIFIC W-NOAM RIDGE AND A POSITIVE-PHASE
PNA PATTERN. FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS IN THE REGION OF EXPECTED RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT...DUE LARGELY TO THE RETURN OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THE
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WILL DISPLACE THE COLD AIR NOW OVER ALASKA. THE HEMISPHERIC
THICKNESS MINIMUM...WHICH HAS MOVED TEMPORARILY E INTO THE BERING
STRAIT AND IS RESULTING IN TEMPS OF -40 TO -50 OVER NW ALASKA...
WILL BE NUDGED BACK W INTO SIBERIA. BUT THE COLD AIR FACTORY
EVENTUALLY WILL RETURN TO OPERATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...OVER N AND CENTRAL CANADA...AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE W CANADA RIDGE SET UP A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY
AROUND NEXT THURSDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY ARCTIC SFC
HIGH...APPROACHING 1050 MB ON MOST MODELS...OVER NW CANADA INDICATES
THAT A SE-WARD MIGRATION OF THE COLD AIR E OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS WILL BE LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
ARRIVAL IN THE S PLAINS IS CURRENTLY NEXT FRIDAY...JUST BEYOND OUR
CURRENT DAY 7...WITH REINFORCEMENTS OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND A
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM SETUP BY THE WEEKEND OF 2/11-12 OR EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. MEANTIME...DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED/THU
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF PREDOMINANTLY-PACIFIC AIRMASS.

[jasons2k]

Oh dear, NWS in Austin/SAT used the "M" word.

I've heard of the "s" word, but what's the "m" word?

While I'm asking questions, how will the lack of appreciable snowpack affect this arctic air on it's way down? Or do you think the snowpack will build with each successive re-enforcing shot and make this point moot?

meriodonal

[jasons2k]

true arctic air never goes east first... if it does its not of true arctic nature... Texas especaially the panhandle west and north always gets the true arctic air before the southeast or north florida does ... cold air dips way further south in Texas then the southeast.. take for instance houston and san antonio sanantonio is at the same latitude as orlando or between talahasee and orlando and wintry precipitaion in sanantonio is no big deal really it happens every year and its not a shocker to people in san antonio... wintry precip in san antonio is not going to make headlines if wintry precip hit orlando it would make national headlines on the front page of every paper and is a once in a 30 yr. event if that... same with houston.... wintry precip in north florida is a complete absolute shock where in houston its not too out of the ordinary to see some type of wintry precip every yr... maybe not snow, but sleet or freezing rain becuse of how far south and east houston is in texas....if the cold goes southeast first itll just be a weak alberta clipper which is not true arctic air like the strong blue northers Texas gets every year.....

Plainsman,

sorry but I have to disagree with almost everything stated here. San Antonio is not the same latitude as Orlando, it's close but that small difference on the map makes a huge difference in the weather. Look at the difference between Orlando and Jacksonville. I happened to be in San Antonio a couple of years ago and they had some snow flurries. It was a HUGE deal. Wall to wall coverage on the local news stations. Kids in middle school being interviewed said they had never seen snow before. Same story in Houston last year when it snowed. Now, just barely NW of San Anotnio it is more frequent because you're up in the Hill Country, but not in the city itself.

You are right Texas cities at the exact same latitude are colder than those on Florida, but not by much. And true artic air can plow straight to the SE US....

I recently (within the last 6-12 months) moved here from Orlando, and I think that it is much colder in Houston than in Orlando. Houston is usually 10 degrees colder. The record coldest High in Orlando is 35-36 and in Houston it is 25-26. The record low in Orlando is 19 and in Houston it is 5. Also, according to the NWS, Houston averages snow every 6 years and ice every 4..but with a series of warm winters recently, many can be fooled into thinking that it is much less common. In Orlando, however, you can count recorded snowfalls on one hand...may be two. The most recent event in Orlando was some sleet/ice/snow in Dec. 1989 (or snow flurries in 2003...but that really was more the east coast; not Orlando). The most recent big event in Houston was last year...and before that it was probably the 1997 ice storm. Overall Houston is noticably colder than Orlando during the winter. Keep in mind that even though the last two years have been warm...there have still been freezes in Houston. In Orlando, however, there has not been a freeze at the airport since 2003.

That's true but you're not comparing apples to apples. Orlando is not only further south, it is down into the FLA peninsula. Houston's climate is more like Jacksonville's or Tallahassee's.

[jasons2k]

Hey extremeweatherguy - take a look at Hobby's climate records. Although they aren't as warm as Orlando, they are quite a bit different than Bush. Hobby hasn't had a freeze yet this winter.

[Portastorm]

That discussion from NWS Norman is great. I really like it when the pro mets walk readers through the developing pattern like they did here. Outstanding!

Looks like the "real fun" begins about the middle of next week and beyond.

The 0z ensembles continue to look pretty cold --

(96-180 hrs):

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ta ... 20300.html

[aggiecutter]

192-276 the Ensembles look very cold, and the 0z EURO at day 7 begins unloading the very cold arctic into the lower 48 everywhere east of the Rockies...


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[jasons2k]

Man, if this keeps up I'm definately going to have to wrap my plants and pray.