Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

The overnight runs were overall in the right direction.

Let's keep it up!

[Gotwood]

That euro run makes no sense. The position of the HP is still over Colorado yet the cold just disappears and rolls east lol.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That euro run makes no sense. The position of the HP is still over Colorado yet the cold just disappears and rolls east lol.

Yep, you can toss it. EPS doesn’t agree with it.

[cajungal]

I got burned last week here in SE Louisiana and now models doing it again as they always do. Feels like a waste of cold

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I got burned last week here in SE Louisiana and now models doing it again as they always do. Feels like a waste of cold

No such thing. Heat sucks so I will take the cold precip or not.

[cajungal]

I got burned last week here in SE Louisiana and now models doing it again as they always do. Feels like a waste of cold

No such thing. Heat sucks so I will take the cold precip or not.

Not me

[Yukon Cornelius]

I got burned last week here in SE Louisiana and now models doing it again as they always do. Feels like a waste of cold

No such thing. Heat sucks so I will take the cold precip or not.

1000%

[jasons2k]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

The advice I got here on this board to shut of the water to my house in 2021 pretty much saved my house from flooding. My only big loss was my pool pump. I'll be forever grateful for that advice. Folks in my neighborhood had some terrible losses, they were out of their homes for nearly 9 months while repairs were done.

When in doubt, it’s one of the best precautions you can take.

For new members, one of the things we advised people to do in the 2021 freeze was to shut off the main water supply going into the house. Then, make sure to drain the pipes by opening your faucets on the first floor. Drain everything. Then, make sure the main line into the house is protected/covered if it’s exposed.

We would turn the water back on during the day to take showers, etc. and keep it running, then shut it off again when we were done.

My pipes are pretty well-insulated but we took this precaution just in case, and it gave us peace of mind. No issues.

Another tip - if you have a hose faucet outside of the garage, that’s usually the first to go, so a small space heater facing that garage wall (not too close of course) can save you a pipe burst in the garage too.

[orangeblood]

Still a lot of unknowns for next week, the Ensemble Mean solutions all have a different look....GEFS cold but dry, GEPS bitter cold with precip, and Euro ENS looks to be a hybrid of both. Probably best to side with the Euro at this point. But if you want precip, need things to begin trending towards the GEPS look with energy hanging back over the southwest US!!

GEFS


Euro Ens


GEPS

[HockeyTx82]

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

The advice I got here on this board to shut of the water to my house in 2021 pretty much saved my house from flooding. My only big loss was my pool pump. I'll be forever grateful for that advice. Folks in my neighborhood had some terrible losses, they were out of their homes for nearly 9 months while repairs were done.

When in doubt, it’s one of the best precautions you can take.

For new members, one of the things we advised people to do in the 2021 freeze was to shut off the main water supply going into the house. Then, make sure to drain the pipes by opening your faucets on the first floor. Drain everything. Then, make sure the main line into the house is protected/covered if it’s exposed.

We would turn the water back on during the day to take showers, etc. and keep it running, then shut it off again when we were done.

My pipes are pretty well-insulated but we took this precaution just in case, and it gave us peace of mind. No issues.

Another tip - if you have a hose faucet outside of the garage, that’s usually the first to go, so a small space heater facing that garage wall (not too close of course) can save you a pipe burst in the garage too.

I would add if you drain your hot water, for your hot water heater you need to make sure and flip the breaker so if power comes back on you do don't have an empty water heater trying to heat.

Unless there's a plumber on here who can add context that's what I did.

I take make no guarantees on this advice and ask you talk to a professional.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

The advice I got here on this board to shut of the water to my house in 2021 pretty much saved my house from flooding. My only big loss was my pool pump. I'll be forever grateful for that advice. Folks in my neighborhood had some terrible losses, they were out of their homes for nearly 9 months while repairs were done.

When in doubt, it’s one of the best precautions you can take.

For new members, one of the things we advised people to do in the 2021 freeze was to shut off the main water supply going into the house. Then, make sure to drain the pipes by opening your faucets on the first floor. Drain everything. Then, make sure the main line into the house is protected/covered if it’s exposed.

We would turn the water back on during the day to take showers, etc. and keep it running, then shut it off again when we were done.

My pipes are pretty well-insulated but we took this precaution just in case, and it gave us peace of mind. No issues.

Another tip - if you have a hose faucet outside of the garage, that’s usually the first to go, so a small space heater facing that garage wall (not too close of course) can save you a pipe burst in the garage too.

If an outcome on the more extreme side starts to look most likely in the coming days, it may be a good idea to create a sticky post for tips like this

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 00Z run):

34–13...(49–03).....B02...0.71...Amarillo
39–25...(53–19).....17.....0.12...Austin Camp Mabry
36–21...(46–15).....07.....0.16...Dallas
39–26...(47–19).....16.....0.12...Houston
32–13...(44–03).....B03...0.43...Oklahoma City
31–12...(44–04).....B01...0.39...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, half of these stations would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 06Z run):

36–15...(55–03)...B02...0.74...Amarillo
42–28...(55–15)...17.....0.15...Austin Camp Mabry
38–25...(50–16)...07.....0.41...Dallas
44–35...(57–23)...16.....0.05...Houston
33–20...(46–09)...B03...0.26...Oklahoma City
31–17...(43–08)...B01...0.41...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only two of these stations would break or get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 00Z run):

23–03...(40–B07)...B02...1.61...Amarillo
31–20...(46–10).....17.....1.38...Austin Camp Mabry
29–17...(44–10).....07.....0.59...Dallas
33–25...(51–12).....16.....0.51...Houston
21–07...(43–B04)...B03...0.83...Oklahoma City
19–06...(43–B07)...B01...0.87...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would break or get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

[cajungal]

Never wanted extreme cold as it dropped down to 9 degrees when I was a kid in 1989 and pipes busted through the attic. Temps just low enough for snow to happen and no ice, and to have even a dusting and I would be happy. And even better if it happened in daylight hours like Dec 2017. So we are not having to get out of warm beds in our pajamas with flashlights.

[jasons2k]

The advice I got here on this board to shut of the water to my house in 2021 pretty much saved my house from flooding. My only big loss was my pool pump. I'll be forever grateful for that advice. Folks in my neighborhood had some terrible losses, they were out of their homes for nearly 9 months while repairs were done.

When in doubt, it’s one of the best precautions you can take.

For new members, one of the things we advised people to do in the 2021 freeze was to shut off the main water supply going into the house. Then, make sure to drain the pipes by opening your faucets on the first floor. Drain everything. Then, make sure the main line into the house is protected/covered if it’s exposed.

We would turn the water back on during the day to take showers, etc. and keep it running, then shut it off again when we were done.

My pipes are pretty well-insulated but we took this precaution just in case, and it gave us peace of mind. No issues.

Another tip - if you have a hose faucet outside of the garage, that’s usually the first to go, so a small space heater facing that garage wall (not too close of course) can save you a pipe burst in the garage too.

I would add if you drain your hot water, for your hot water heater you need to make sure and flip the breaker so if power comes back on you do don't have an empty water heater trying to heat.

Unless there's a plumber on here who can add context that's what I did.

I take make no guarantees on this advice and ask you talk to a professional.

Good point.
We kept our hot water tanks full and heated.

[Iceresistance]

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

The advice I got here on this board to shut of the water to my house in 2021 pretty much saved my house from flooding. My only big loss was my pool pump. I'll be forever grateful for that advice. Folks in my neighborhood had some terrible losses, they were out of their homes for nearly 9 months while repairs were done.

When in doubt, it’s one of the best precautions you can take.

For new members, one of the things we advised people to do in the 2021 freeze was to shut off the main water supply going into the house. Then, make sure to drain the pipes by opening your faucets on the first floor. Drain everything. Then, make sure the main line into the house is protected/covered if it’s exposed.

We would turn the water back on during the day to take showers, etc. and keep it running, then shut it off again when we were done.

My pipes are pretty well-insulated but we took this precaution just in case, and it gave us peace of mind. No issues.

Another tip - if you have a hose faucet outside of the garage, that’s usually the first to go, so a small space heater facing that garage wall (not too close of course) can save you a pipe burst in the garage too.

What I did in 2021 was fill up multiple 5-gallon buckets to flush toilets since we had well water, was able to get 2 space heaters in the well house and the water never froze.

[Throckmorton]

Just drip all your faucets (hot and cold) and open any cabinets under sinks

[HockeyTx82]

Makes me wonder how people survived back when they had no HVAC, no insulation, no GPS, no Internet, no Electricity, no indoor plumbing or running water, no grocery stores and so on......

I mean people made it obviously because we are all here.

It must have been brutal.

And the crazy thing is you would not have Storm2k to prepare you for beforehand and get an idea of impact and duration. You just went with it.

[cajungal]

Makes me wonder how people survived back when they had no HVAC, no insulation, no GPS, no Internet, no Electricity, no indoor plumbing or running water, no grocery stores and so on......

I mean people made it obviously because we are all here.

It must have been brutal.

I wish I had a time capsule and could live just one day on Feb 14,1899 when my town an hour SW of New Orleans had 14 inches of snow

And the crazy thing is you would not have Storm2k to prepare you for beforehand and get an idea of impact and duration. You just went with it.

[Wthrfan]

Makes me wonder how people survived back when they had no HVAC, no insulation, no GPS, no Internet, no Electricity, no indoor plumbing or running water, no grocery stores and so on......

I mean people made it obviously because we are all here.

It must have been brutal.

And the crazy thing is you would not have Storm2k to prepare you for beforehand and get an idea of impact and duration. You just went with it.

I think those people were cut from different cloth!

[Ntxw]

Makes me wonder how people survived back when they had no HVAC, no insulation, no GPS, no Internet, no Electricity, no indoor plumbing or running water, no grocery stores and so on......

I mean people made it obviously because we are all here.

It must have been brutal.

And the crazy thing is you would not have Storm2k to prepare you for beforehand and get an idea of impact and duration. You just went with it.

The easier we make our lives with innovation and technology, the harder it is to go without. Nothing like a good ole cabin with a fire place where you only need to heat one space out in the middle of Canadian woods.