Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

Both the CMS and RGEM have cut back QPF across DFW over the next 48 hrs when temps will be coldest. Kind of backing off the major sleet/ice storm of the 00z runs and trending toward the American models.

Any amount of frz rain and/or sleet is enought to shutdown DFW for a few days, and still .25" or more is all it will take to create major impacts.

Even a .1" is enough to cause serious problems.

[bubba hotep]

Thundersleet!

Radar is a good bit more juiced up that way than what the hi-res models were showing.

Sometimes the website maps are deceiving. Little dots of qpf but really it's convective. This afternoon between 20z and 0z convective activity will occur up and down I-35. Reflectivity composites paints a more realistic view.

https://i.imgur.com/kTY763k.png

Should be a pretty cool experience if we can get thunder out of those cells! Obviously, that is with everyone staying safe.

[bubba hotep]

Both the CMS and RGEM have cut back QPF across DFW over the next 48 hrs when temps will be coldest. Kind of backing off the major sleet/ice storm of the 00z runs and trending toward the American models.

Any amount of frz rain and/or sleet is enought to shutdown DFW for a few days, and still .25" or more is all it will take to create major impacts.

Even just freezing drizzle can cause major issues. However, 1-1.5" of freezing rain would cause major damage and power outages.

[HockeyTx82]

Both the CMS and RGEM have cut back QPF across DFW over the next 48 hrs when temps will be coldest. Kind of backing off the major sleet/ice storm of the 00z runs and trending toward the American models.

So what are you seeing exactly?

It seems like now that we have buy in from NWS things are not going to happen.

[bubba hotep]

Cells really starting to pop out over SW Texas. If this were a svr wx day, then that would be a pretty big red flag.

[rwfromkansas]

Noticing the WPC “dry slot” over DFW with slightly less QPF potential. Still says 60 percent chance of .25.

Weird to me but it matches some models.

[CaptinCrunch]

Noticing the WPC “dry slot” over DFW with slightly less QPF potential. Still says 60 percent chance of .25.

Weird to me but it matches some models.

The precip shield is fairly large, so I'm not so sure that will happen.

[Ntxw]

Noticing the WPC “dry slot” over DFW with slightly less QPF potential. Still says 60 percent chance of .25.

Weird to me but it matches some models.

Are you talking about this one?

[Portastorm]

I *think* we may have bottomed out here in the Austin area with our temperatures. The slow slide down seems to have stopped with the urban core holding at 33-34 degrees and the outlying areas ranging from 29-32.

Haven't had time to look at latest model guidance about temps. Seems like qpf won't be a problem here. If we drop a few more degrees, it's going to get ugly fast.

Good luck to you folks up north ... hope you get thundersleet! That is such an awesome experience.

[Iceresistance]

Thundersleet!

[rwfromkansas]

Keller dismissing early for secondary schools and closed tomorrow.

[rwfromkansas]

Noticing the WPC “dry slot” over DFW with slightly less QPF potential. Still says 60 percent chance of .25.

Weird to me but it matches some models.

Are you talking about this one?

https://i.imgur.com/WxfSsLN.png

A different one posted earlier; that seems more aggressive though.

[Ntxw]

Noticing the WPC “dry slot” over DFW with slightly less QPF potential. Still says 60 percent chance of .25.

Weird to me but it matches some models.

Are you talking about this one?

https://i.imgur.com/WxfSsLN.png

A different one posted earlier; that seems more aggressive though.

There are different maps. Day to day 24 hour maps shows a particular day's icing odds (depends on qpf forecasts for that period) and then there's odds spanning 48-72 hours.

[gpsnowman]

Keller dismissing early for secondary schools and closed tomorrow.

My daughter is out an hour early today but still no word about Tuesday. It wouldn't shock me if school is out both Tuesday and Wednesday.

[DallasAg]

Radar returns starting to light up around and NW of the DFW metro. Looks like maybe a heavier shower (rain or sleet) just passing over the airport now, if RadarScope is to be believed.

[rwfromkansas]

Lightning around Brownwood.

[Quixotic]

IP and FRZ RA here in Frisco

[CaptinCrunch]

freezing rain here in Mansfield

[Iceresistance]

WSW for me!

[rwfromkansas]

Sleeting north FW. Just blew up.