Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Ok thanks vbhoutex. Question for ya. Do you know of any really good sites that specifically show upper air soundings/ MESO Soundings for my are of Seattle? Specifically that would show the CAPE and Lifted index values, winds aloft, surface temp...ect.

-- Andy

I don't, but Don Sutherland would be a good place to start. Another to ask might be Jeff. Both are pro-mets here. I know Jeff gets soundings for our area so he should be able to help and Don seems to know everything about the weather. both post in this forum. Just pm them. If you don't get a response let me know.

Vbhoutex....maybe you help me find Jeff so I can ask him my question. Can ya? Or...what thread might I find him in?

[vbhoutex]

Here is a link to one of Jeff's threads.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=61181

[snow_wizzard]

Well...I think I have had a long enough break from posting on here.

My area has had an amazing amount of rain today! A whopping 0.87 and still coming down. Incredible when the models were showing nothing more than a quarter inch. These unusual weather patterns (the forecast discussions have used the word atypical several times lately) are wrecking havok with the models and the NWS forecasts!

I am working on putting together an air tight case that we have indeed entered a weather regime that is far different than we have wintessed in a few decades. I am more convinced than ever that next winter has a chance of being one that will be talked about for a long time to come. There are definite shades of 1968 and 1951 showing up in the upper air patterns, as is evidenced by the CDC analogs frequently referencing those two years. It is somewhat strange how the observed weather has yet to reflect what we should be observing with the upper level flow patterns. The same upper pattern that we have had for the past few days brought a string of amazingly cold nights in April 1951. This time the details were just off by a hair to make that happen again. On Wednesday the dew point dropped into the 20s in Bellingham, but the weather did not settle down and clear up long enough for the cold nights to be realized. It seems inevitable that eventually the observed weather is going to more closely match what should happen with the upper level patterns we are seeing. The temperatures this year are averaging out to near normal so far, while last year was very warm up to this point. Last year also had cold looking upper level patterns that did not deliver cold to the surface. This year we are getting closer.

By the way...even though we have seen a lot analogs with 1951 and 1968 those are not two of the analog years I have found. That is due to the fact, the observed weather just doesn't match those years closely enough yet. I will have my 5 or 6 analog years chosen in a few more days and I will post my summer, fall, and winter predictions based on those. I stress, that I will have a full explanation of why the years I am choosing made the grade.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...All I ask of you from now on is to let me post without being so nasty about my ideas. I will do the same for you. You must remember that not everyone is going to agree with you. Let's just see who ends up being right about the next three seasons worth of weather. You do not know who is right, because it has not happed yet.

I will admit you have been right about quite a few things this month. Please take the compliment and don't rag on me! I am not even going to mention the things I was right about. I just don't want to go down that road again.

[vbhoutex]

TT...All I ask of you from now on is to let me post without being so nasty about my ideas. I will do the same for you. You must remember that not everyone is going to agree with you. Let's just see who ends up being right about the next three seasons worth of weather. You do not know who is right, because it has not happed yet.

I will admit you have been right about quite a few things this month. Please take the compliment and don't rag on me! I am not even going to mention the things I was right about. I just don't want to go down that road again.

I'll put it another way. This is directed at everyone!!! Don't get so personal about the weather! This is not a contest. It is an informational and discussion forum. I am an accomplished amatuer especially when it comes to the tropics. I could not analyze and comment on PNW nearly as well as most of you since I have not studied that area a lot. I AM NOT ALWAYS RIGHT, and when I am not, I admit it, or as our favorite food in the tropics arena is called, I EAT CROW. There is nothing bad about being wrong or off on your analysis-just be sure you learn from it and move on. If you do disagree with someones analysis, state that respectfully and BACK UP YOUR DISAGREEMENT WITH FACTS. It really is a simple process that works quite well. I have disagreed with both our professionals and some of the analysts I have hand picked for this site, but we never get personal about it. Try it you'll like it!!!

[andycottle]

Welcome back snow wizzard. Good to see ya again! -- Andy

[andycottle]

Good morning all. A cloudy morning here with .12" during the over night hours. Currently I have a temp of 50 with 100% humidity and DP of 50. Maybe a bit more exciting weather late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Welcome back Snow_Wizzard!!

I have always said this was a friendly debate. I have never understood why there was so much emotion in the first place. I respect your opinion and your knowledge.

It looks like Covington was the big winner yesterday for rainfall. We only had .12 here at our house.

Interesting to note... a cold, wet day like yesterday still bought the monthly average up from 50.5 to 50.6 degrees. Even I am surprised that we will end up a .5 degrees above normal.

Some other points... just being objective here.

1) Just to close the loop on this one with you... you said that a significantly cold April was critical. Even more important was a warm March and a cold April. What are your thoughts now on having an above normal April.

2) I have seen a few random pattern similarities to 1951 and 1968. Even so... 1993 has shown up repeatedly on the analog list. The global indexes match very well with 1993. How can you say you have "air tight" case?? It seems like that would be impossible given the randomness of Mother Nature.

3) You have mentioned several times that you do not understand why the surface observations do not match. We are close but just miss getting really cold. This has happened quite a few times this year. There are two possibilities for this:

a) The overall pattern is not what you think it is... we are always reasonably close to cold weather in the winter months. Seriously... more than you know.
b) The cold cycles and patterns are warmer now than in the past. So what bought really cold air in the past only brings moderately cold air now.


I would really like to see all the evidence you have been accumulating. Maybe there are things I am missing in my assessment.

Again... welcome back. This is a friendly, scientific debate. Nothing more.

[andycottle]

Good lovely afternoon you all! How is everyone today?! Despite some morning showers and some late morning light drizzel/mist and grey skies....today turned out to be a pretty ok day with skies becoming partly cloudy by around the afternoon time. Skies are currently partly cloudy as I type this. Temp is 64. My high today.....67! And my low temp...48.
Have a great evening you all.

Will have my monthly weather stats to show you all later on tonight.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Hey! Where is everyone tonight? Gotta be something to chat about tonight.

[Guest]

Hey Guys you will never guess who this is! It is such a relief to finally be able to come back on here. I almost died when i had to go a day without this place... For some reason TT when SNowwizz brings up 1951 you respect him, but when i bring up 1951 you think i am frreakin crazy!

Well I beat the system and am back on my own computer, different address, i found out a way so that i can just switch it so this forum cannot ban me!!!! I WIN. I BEAT THE SYSTEM... TRY KICKING ME OFF NOW!!!

I hope you don;t though because it is quite a long process.

I hope I am accepted back on here sooner or later...

[vbhoutex]

Hey Guys you will never guess who this is! It is such a relief to finally be able to come back on here. I almost died when i had to go a day without this place... For some reason TT when SNowwizz brings up 1951 you respect him, but when i bring up 1951 you think i am frreakin crazy!

Well I beat the system and am back on my own computer, different address, i found out a way so that i can just switch it so this forum cannot ban me!!!! I WIN. I BEAT THE SYSTEM... TRY KICKING ME OFF NOW!!!

I hope you don;t though because it is quite a long process.

I hope I am accepted back on here sooner or later...

Guess again!!! Your attitude and your thumbing your nose at the staff just bought you a LONG vacation.

[andycottle]

Woodinville Weather stats: April 2005

Avg. high: 62
Avg. Low: 40
Warmest High temp: 79(22nd)
Coldest low temp: 32(12th)
Days with measureable precip: 13
Monthly precip: 2.96"
Yearly precip so far: 10.26"

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Not a bad day...we started off with some light drizzle/mist and ended partly sunny. The temperature was mild...we had a high of 63F.

Tomorrow is up in the air. Latest GFS and ETA models disagree with the next system approaching from the south. The GFS has more precipitation across Western Washington, while the ETA confines the moisture to the coast. In any event, should be a mostly cloudy day...similar to today.

Next week is also up in the air. Latest GFS models bring another organized system through on Wednesday...but at least temperatures remain seasonal.

I already miss the warm and sunny weather!! Come back!!

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... have you looked at 1978?

You might like that one since 1978-79 was pretty cold. Strange though that 1978 was early in the last warming spell.

Did you have to pay for the site that has 500mb maps back to 1948?

Don Sutherland pointed some glaring problems with 1993.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I really hope we can keep this fun and a learning experience for everybody. I am willing to do my part on that issue!

I will tell you that 1978 is another one of my analog years. It may actually be a better match than 1993. It had the big rains in Cal like this season AND it also had the major NAO blocks like this year, 1993 actually had positive NAO departures for Feb - Apr. The NAO average for this year for Feb - April will be the most negative since the early 1960s (one piece of eveidence things are changing). 1978 had the most negative NAO from 1970 up till this year. While the winter of 1978 - 79 was not overly snowy, it was colder than a you know what!

As for this April...I am disappointed by the finish, but as it turns out the fact that we did get a solid cold period after the warm March fulfills the requirement. I checked all of that out last night. It seems that very warm March's usually lead to very warm April's with no cold weather. The ones that do end up with decent April cold snaps are "good" years in my book. Years like 1968, 1972, 1984, 1990, 1995, 1996. The only bad years I found from 1968 till now that had that combo were 1969 and 1986.

By the way...I will include the requirements that I was using to define a decent April cold snap in a later post.

[snow_wizzard]

Now that is weird. You did the post about 1978 just a few minutes before I did my post! You are darn right that is a good analog. Olympia had it's all time record low of -7F in the winter of 1978 - 79.

TT...You are lucky I'm in a good mood. Here is the link to the site for the upper air maps. It is awesome!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Composites/Day/

[snow_wizzard]

Monthly totals for Covington

Avg high - 58.3
Avg low - 41.0
Warmest high - 77
Coldest low - 31
Mean avg - 49.6....0.3 degrees BELOW normal (that was a close one)
Total Precip - 5.32"
Yearly Precip - 14.67"

[R-Dub]

Nice to see a pretty much cloudless blue sky this morning

Well that is pretty much all I have to say Not much going on with our weather lately. Yesterday morning we got .1" of rain, not much at all.
A great morning to go out and do a little fishing

Talk to everyone later!

[andycottle]

Yep....a sunny morning here also and not much exciting going on with the weather. Current temp here at 8:20a.m is 47 with humidity 100%.
-- Andy