Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

34 degrees and still dropping in Denison.

[weatherdude1108]

Just got back from a dog walk and it was 54 when I went out and 51 now. Doesn't sound all that cold but it felt cold and damp. There was a little mist, light drizzle and a north wind.

Dewpoint is 49.

54 this morning around 7:30 on my home weather station. 48 now at 3 pm.

Dewpoint 45.

[TexasF6]

More foot dragging....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PUSH TO
THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN PLACE...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO MIX INTO
A WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE FREEZING MARK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED
SURFACES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BLANCO TO GEORGETOWN. EVEN THOUGH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COVERS TRAVIS COUNTY...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA BUT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAME THING FOR HAYS COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ON MONDAY TRYING TO COME UP
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS ARE URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE SCENARIO COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN ONLY FEW DEGREES THAN FORECAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WINDOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES/HILL COUNTRY AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION AS THIS WINTER EVENT
UNFOLDS.

&&

[dhweather]

40.4 in Heath, surprised with .40" of rain today. We can use a whole lot more of that!

[Portastorm]

More foot dragging....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PUSH TO
THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN PLACE...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO MIX INTO
A WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE FREEZING MARK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED
SURFACES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BLANCO TO GEORGETOWN. EVEN THOUGH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COVERS TRAVIS COUNTY...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA BUT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAME THING FOR HAYS COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ON MONDAY TRYING TO COME UP
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS ARE URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE SCENARIO COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN ONLY FEW DEGREES THAN FORECAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WINDOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES/HILL COUNTRY AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION AS THIS WINTER EVENT
UNFOLDS.

&&

I'm at a complete loss to understand what they're looking at. Mind boggling.

[Tireman4]

The cold,air is really taking its time here in Humble....75 now

[dhweather]

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
SOME MODIFICATION THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT SHOW LAPSE RATES >7 DEGREES C/KM IN THE
750-650MB LAYER PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS YIELDS
APPROXIMATELY 100-150 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND WILL DEFINITELY BE
SUPPORTIVE THUNDERSLEET. SLEET AMOUNTS WITH ANY CONVECTION CAN
VARY GREATLY BUT A QUICK INCH OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE ACCUMULATIONS/LOCATIONS AND
MAY EXTEND THE DURATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

GRAPHICS ON OUR HOMEPAGE AND VIDEO BRIEFINGS WILL BE UPDATED
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

DUNN



From around noon at FWD - who doesn't love the word thundersleet!

[Wntrwthrguy]

More foot dragging....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PUSH TO
THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN PLACE...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO MIX INTO
A WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE FREEZING MARK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED
SURFACES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BLANCO TO GEORGETOWN. EVEN THOUGH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COVERS TRAVIS COUNTY...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA BUT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAME THING FOR HAYS COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ON MONDAY TRYING TO COME UP
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS ARE URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE SCENARIO COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN ONLY FEW DEGREES THAN FORECAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WINDOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES/HILL COUNTRY AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION AS THIS WINTER EVENT
UNFOLDS.

&&

I'm at a complete loss to understand what they're looking at. Mind boggling.

Sounds to me like they are trying to cover their backs in case we don't get below freezing. From what I have been reading on here though, this isn't the storm to be conservative with.

[TexasF6]

More foot dragging....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PUSH TO
THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN PLACE...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO MIX INTO
A WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE FREEZING MARK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED
SURFACES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BLANCO TO GEORGETOWN. EVEN THOUGH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COVERS TRAVIS COUNTY...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA BUT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAME THING FOR HAYS COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ON MONDAY TRYING TO COME UP
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS ARE URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE SCENARIO COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN ONLY FEW DEGREES THAN FORECAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WINDOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES/HILL COUNTRY AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION AS THIS WINTER EVENT
UNFOLDS.

&&

I'm at a complete loss to understand what they're looking at. Mind boggling.

This air has shown itself to more potent with its movement into Texas thusfar. A noisy subtropical jet and numerous unseen shortwaves coming from Mexico? Come on people!!!!!! We'll make it to work just fine, early dismissal from work and school is the next issue. I hate to think what they will tell officials at that 3am meeting Monday morning....

[Ellsey]

Wow the temp is dropping pretty quickly. Down to 36, but an hourish ago we were at 40.

Edit to say we got .84 inches rain as well. Happy for that.

[dhweather]

Tough position for the school districts to be in. They will wait until morning to make a call, rightfully so, but the wintry weather may just be starting at 6 or so.

[SouthernMet]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...

.MUCH COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
POUR INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY AND SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...NOT INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY
EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AS THIS WINTER
WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.


TXZ171>173-183>192-230530-
/O.CON.KEWX.WW.Y.0004.150223T0900Z-150224T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
324 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...3 AM MONDAY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LEADING TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES
AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[dhweather]

Wow the temp is dropping pretty quickly. Down to 36, but an hourish ago we were at 40.

Edit to say we got .84 inches rain as well. Happy for that.

I hope a lot of that makes it into Lavon & Hubbard.

[Texas Snowman]

Moving towards an inch of rain here already, temp at 34.

[Portastorm]

So if there is no threat of ZR in the Austin metro per EWX's afternoon AFD, how is it that San Marcos ... some 30 miles south and same elevation IS under a threat per the WWA?!

I'm telling you there is no congruence between the forecast, special weather advisories, and the AFD. I've talked to several buddies -- private sector mets -- who are "amazed" and "baffled" by this series of products. Their words not mine.

Unfortunately important decisions are going to be made tonight and tomorrow morning in this area regarding education/government based on widely divergent forecasts between public and private sector meteorologists. Recipe for mass confusion.

[TheProfessor]

My temperature is at 35 right now

[TheProfessor]

We are getting sleet mixed with rain right now.

[Texas Snowman]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-230600-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WS.W.0001.150222T2150Z-150224T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS
350 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...MAINLY SLEET. SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. BRIDGES ARE LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ICE
AND SLEET FIRST WITH MAIN ROADS ALSO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND
POSSIBLY SOME ICE DURING THIS TIME.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MELTING
MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR. ANY RESIDUAL WATER FROM TODAYS RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY FREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE VERY
HAZARDOUS...AND POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS IT IS
AN EMERGENCY. KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

[texas1836]

35 in McKinney with still a cold rain. We do have 1.16 inches of rain though.

[Tammie]

FW AFD: 400 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 Discussion: SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE FOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS Significant Forecast Changes: Winter storm warning start time has been moved up to start now. winter weather advisory start time has been moved up to 9pm. Sleet accumulations have been bumped up slightly across the northwest parts of the cwa. Ice accumulations from freezing rain have been nudged up slightly but remain below warning criteria farther south. Hourly temperature trends have been adjusted to reflect current position of colder air. High temperatures on Monday have been lowered by 2-3 degrees. No other significant forecast changes this afternoon. Technical Discussion: Much colder air continues to filter into north Texas this afternoon with sub freezing temperatures now moving into the northwest counties. Precipitation has diminished in intensity across these areas which should limit any freezing rain potential through the evening hours. Farther east, a cold rain will continue through the early evening as the first wave of lift moves to the northeast. Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s where this precipitation is occurring so no freezing rain is expected. Some areas have already picked up close to an inch of rain but this intensity will diminish through evening. Signs of the second wave of ascent are already being indicated on radar and water vapor imagery across west Texas. Some areas of precipitation have already developed but this should generally remain scattered over the next several hours as the better forcing will arrive during the overnight hours. We are expected to see a lull in the precipitation later this evening through midnight or so, but it wont be completely void of activity. There will likely be intermittent areas of precipitation that develop in pockets of stronger forcing that stream across north Texas in the southwest flow aloft. Any precipitation that develops late this evening could be in the form of a freezing rain/sleet mix across the west and northwest parts of the cwa. The freezing line will surge south this evening across the western counties and it will take a little longer farther east. It should be moving into the metroplex by 0Z or a little later. By 3-4am, most areas with the exception of the southeast counties should be at or below freezing. The strongest forcing looks like it will overspread north Texas in the 3-5am timeframe with widespread precipitation continuing into the morning hours on Monday. The compact upper low south of California is in the process of ejecting northeast now and another disturbance appears to be embedded in the flow across northwest mexico. These seem to be the features that really provide the forcing for ascent late tonight. Right now... We think the heaviest precipitation will occur along a line from near eastland to dfw to sherman, and areas northwest of there through about 10am on Monday. Latest high resolution ttu-WRF and 4km NAM continue to yield high confidence in the current forecast as both continue to strongly indicate convective elements to the precipitation. Sref plumes of mucape and analysis of all available forecast soundings indicate that anywhere from 100-150j/kg of elevated instability will be present. This will support thundersleet through the morning hours. Bursts of sleet can quickly accumulate to an inch or more in a short period of time. as of this afternoon, we think that most areas in the current warning will see between 1/2 and 1 inch of sleet. Farther northwest, from fort worth to bowie, accumulations of 1 to 1 1/2 inch of sleet with heavier amounts will be possible. Some light freezing rain will also be possible through morning but ice accumulations should generally be less than 1/10 of an inch. Farther south of the metroplex, where the current advisory is posted, the warm nose will be a little more stout initially. this May keep precipitation all liquid as opposed to sleet. With temperatures falling below freezing, some light icing is expected. This will be worst on bridges and overpasses. Most of the precipitation should move east of the area by late Monday but we will keep some low chances in through the evening. Some light freezing rain or drizzle May be possible during this time with little additional impact. Temperatures on Monday are not expected to rise above freezing so any accumulations of sleet/ice will not melt. This will result in continued travel problems. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing by midday Tuesday. Little changes made to the end of the week system as there is still considerably model uncertainty. We have continued with a rain/snow mix late Thursday into late Friday across much of the area. Dunn