Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

Some Euro members have 6+" spots though many are just light. Some keep this further south and temps vary. Very interesting set up that will surely distract me from my work today.

Yep, it is very puzzling to say the least...It's been a long time since I've seen the ENS members this aggressive and we're not talking 10 days out either, it's less than 48 hrs. FW NWS better be on their A game or this could catch a lot of people off guard with their forecast!!

http://i65.tinypic.com/2drcih1.jpg

I've been keeping an eye on this for a while but have been too defeated by this winter to put any effort into analyzing it lol

It's been highlighted in the Euro ensembles for about a week now but surface temps have just looked too warm. It isn't surprising that surface temps are trending colder or that models are struggling with perception placement and amount. There appears to be a very subtle s/w embedded in the flow and a prominent jet streak. It looks like the Euro is developing precipitation associated with the right entrance region of the jet streak. Kind of a complex setup with no big key to focus on. Models will be playing catch up since that jet streak is just now coming out of Mexico. Could be a nice surprise or more of the same.

What I do like about this setup, particularly when models are potentially overestimating temps and there are very cold temps aloft, are the low dew points....if precip comes in heavier, you could see rapid evaporative cooling of the entire column and that's exactly what some of the ENS members are showing!

[Ralph's Weather]

Seems fairly likely that something will fall for many, but it looks to be light with surface temps in the mid 30s and mid level temps gradually warming. If the wave is stronger than the models show then more significant precip could fall. The heavier precip will cool and moisten the lower levels so for anything fun we will need to hope for a stronger wave. Any given spot north of I-10 and along and E of I-35 could see just light mixed showers or could see several inches of mixed precip. This will likely be a nowcasting event so I will keep my eyes on the mPing map tomorrow for sure to get ground truth as radar will likely light up well before precip begins reaching the ground.

[gpsnowman]

I think the forecasts for tomorrow in the 40's are due to the fact partly sunny skies were predicted. Some I saw at least. Get some solid cloud cover and not much of a rebound can take place.

[orangeblood]

20 F and light snow in OKC at this hour, GFS thinks its clear and 28 F. DFW is sitting at 35 F, GFS thinks its 43 F.......What a joke of a model and quite embarrassing! Probably not smart to reference this particular model at all going forward

[gboudx]

Well, well, well......

Check out the FWD homepage graphics

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

Here's the accompanying discussion:

.UPDATE...
A quick update was made to the grids for tomorrow and tomorrow
night (Friday/Friday Night). Following the early morning cold
front, frigid air has moved into North and Central Texas. Lows
tonight are expected to drop into the 20s for most of our county
warning area, save the far southeastern reaches. Despite sunny
conditions Friday morning along and north of I-20, north to
northeast winds of around 10 knots will maintain cold air
advection across the entirety of our area. As a result,
temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in most areas. The
forecast highs for Friday are below guidance.

The main reasoning behind the update however was for the
precipitation chances and type. An upper-level shortwave trough
will swing into the Southern Plains on Friday. Increasing
synoptic-scale ascent will lead to increasing cloud cover from
southwest to northeast. Patchy, light precipitation will also
develop from southwest to northeast through the day. This
precipitation is forecast to be very light given dry air in the
sub-cloud layer, but some precipitation may reach the ground.
Forecast soundings suggest the primary type would be rain or
sleet during the day, then sleet or snow during the
evening/overnight hours. Right now, accumulations look to be
little to none given that temperatures should be above freezing
for most of the day, and the fact that precipitation rates should
be very light. That being said, heavier bursts of precipitation
could potentially result in light accumulations in a few spots, so
minor impacts to travel in localized areas cannot be ruled out
entirely.

A more thorough update will be coming later this afternoon, but
the bottom line right now is that there will be a potential for
light sleet or snow Friday afternoon and evening across much of
North and Central Texas, with minimal impacts anticipated.

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see what the Euro does here in a few minutes. Does it hold steady, continue to trend towards the more aggressive ensemble members or does it pull the old, "my bad, I was drunk when I drew that snow map!" (Most popular option so far this winter)

[orangeblood]

In other longer range news....hopefully, this is the start of the SOI tank and coupling we've been waiting on. Phase 8 in less than a week??

SOI values for 7 Feb, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days 0.30
Average SOI for last 90 days 2.58
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -7.59

[Lagreeneyes03]

I wouldn't think the Metroplex would see sleet/snow, especially afternoon as the forecast high from NWS is 43....

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't think the Metroplex would see sleet/snow, especially afternoon as the forecast high from NWS is 43....

If it were to happen, it will likely be in the late evening to overnight hours as the current timing.

[Ntxw]

20F in OKC, 31F in the Falls, and 35F at DFW with CAA. Taking under 40F for today.

[gboudx]

I wouldn't think the Metroplex would see sleet/snow, especially afternoon as the forecast high from NWS is 43....

The forecasted high at DFW airport is 38 tomorrow. Maybe 43 was an old number. And frozen precip falling can dynamically cool the column to allow for accumulations. But it's a nowcast situation as I see it.

[orangeblood]

I wouldn't think the Metroplex would see sleet/snow, especially afternoon as the forecast high from NWS is 43....

And what makes you think these temp forecasts are correct ? Models have busted 7-8 F with this airmass out of the gate....

[losf1981]

30 degrees in WF and feels like 20. Sun is out though which is irritating when it's this cold.

[Brent]

20F in OKC, 31F in the Falls, and 35F at DFW with CAA. Taking under 40F for today.

and yesterday they had us in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon whoops

it doesnt exactly instill confidence in tomorrows temp forecast

[weatherdude1108]

Nice QPF showing up in both the 12Z runs of the GFS and FV3-GFS.

GFS


FV3-GFS

[Brent]

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro still drunk ? showing snowfall of 3-4 inches between DFW and Austin, centered around Waco

[Cerlin]

https://i.ibb.co/kSrsBwj/download-10.png

Nice snow hole around my house.

[Ntxw]

Subtropical Jet magic. Hard to see these things or model, this was always a wild card mentioned last week. Anything embedded within the southern stream out of the Pacific (we now have sinking over Indonesia/rising over central Pacific nino forcing) is hard to forecast.

[Brent]

https://i.ibb.co/kSrsBwj/download-10.png

Nice snow hole around my house.

vs the 0z it is a little lower for DFW but the area to the south is higher