Weather Girl...that is fabulous news!
I love the part about bowing to Christmas lows with broad global implications. He was sure right about the brief upsurge in May. The water at 150 meters is now colder than normal for the entire Equatorial Pacific from 120W all the way to the western Pacific. That strongly indicates at least a weak cold event may be near. You are correct that a La Nina would likely mean a negative PDO!
This summer is still a huge question mark. I could make a great case for either a cool summer or a slightly above normal one. Well above normal temps appear to be very unlikely this summer. That does not mean we won't have a week or two of really hot weather, however.
Pacific Northwest Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
-
TT-SEA
So ironic... a forecaster from the Seattle NWS was interviewed in the Seattle Times today about the weather we had in April.
He said we had a one day warm spell... but "nothing bad happened". It was a little warmer than normal... a little wetter than normal... and no severe thunderstorm warnings for the entire month.
Brennan had said that if you asked any forecaster he would laugh at you for calling April normal... that it had actually been wild. I would say that is really s-t-r-e-t-c-h-i-n-g the truth!!
All in all... I would say it was pretty bland.
For the record... April was .6 degrees above normal. That is 3 out 4 above normal months this year.
January was 1.2 degrees above normal
February was .7 degrees below normal
March was 2.9 degrees above normal
April was .6 degrees above normal
He said we had a one day warm spell... but "nothing bad happened". It was a little warmer than normal... a little wetter than normal... and no severe thunderstorm warnings for the entire month.
Brennan had said that if you asked any forecaster he would laugh at you for calling April normal... that it had actually been wild. I would say that is really s-t-r-e-t-c-h-i-n-g the truth!!
All in all... I would say it was pretty bland.
For the record... April was .6 degrees above normal. That is 3 out 4 above normal months this year.
January was 1.2 degrees above normal
February was .7 degrees below normal
March was 2.9 degrees above normal
April was .6 degrees above normal
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-
TT-SEA
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is not predicting a La Nina.
Here is an excerpt from their latest forecast from last week...
Some of these models suggest further development toward an El Nino event, while others suggest neutral conditions for the southern winter / spring. None of the models are predicting a La Nina event.
The ENSO cycles are felt most stongly in Australia. They watch it very closely.
Here is an excerpt from their latest forecast from last week...
Some of these models suggest further development toward an El Nino event, while others suggest neutral conditions for the southern winter / spring. None of the models are predicting a La Nina event.
The ENSO cycles are felt most stongly in Australia. They watch it very closely.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
I have invited the El Nino expert I know from NOAA to post on here about that and the PDO. I do not know if he will or not. He has told me in the past that he and his collegues are not that sure just how important the PDO is. He thinks it could me more a result of the weather than the weather a result of it. It could also be more influenced by the tropics, and not really be all that significant in and of itself.
As for April...All I can say is the fact that the way it arrived at being near normal was not normal. The upper level flow pattern was atypical for much of the month. That word was used several times in the NWS discussions. Atypical means not normal. I think of how many days the rain bands were moving in from the SE...not normal. The way that Covington got drenched Friday and Saturday while areas north of here got very little...not normal. The cold and wet period that dominated the mid part of the month was typical for our cold climate regime, but not for a warm one. I have the daily records...I have looked all of this up. Having a significant April cold spell after a very warm March makes it even more rare. Some people do not appreciate the REALLY FINE points that I look at in the weather. The fine points are hugely important in the big picture.
I continue to say that I am pumped about this year. When the Arctic air slams in here next winter you will see why!
It will certainly be interesting to see who ends up being right about the El Nino / La Nina debate. There are plenty of people on both sides of the issue. All I know is that the deep water sea temperatures support a cool episode.
As for April...All I can say is the fact that the way it arrived at being near normal was not normal. The upper level flow pattern was atypical for much of the month. That word was used several times in the NWS discussions. Atypical means not normal. I think of how many days the rain bands were moving in from the SE...not normal. The way that Covington got drenched Friday and Saturday while areas north of here got very little...not normal. The cold and wet period that dominated the mid part of the month was typical for our cold climate regime, but not for a warm one. I have the daily records...I have looked all of this up. Having a significant April cold spell after a very warm March makes it even more rare. Some people do not appreciate the REALLY FINE points that I look at in the weather. The fine points are hugely important in the big picture.
I continue to say that I am pumped about this year. When the Arctic air slams in here next winter you will see why!
It will certainly be interesting to see who ends up being right about the El Nino / La Nina debate. There are plenty of people on both sides of the issue. All I know is that the deep water sea temperatures support a cool episode.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Incidentally...this year is running colder than last year to this point. The yearly average this year is 1.0 above normal, while last year was 1.27 above. The tide is shifting.
By the way...April had a 10 day period that averaged 4.4 degrees below normal. When looking up an April cold spell after a very warm March I am calling any 10 period that averaged 4 or more degrees below normal a match to this year. It doesn't happen very often, and most years that it does are good ones!
By the way...April had a 10 day period that averaged 4.4 degrees below normal. When looking up an April cold spell after a very warm March I am calling any 10 period that averaged 4 or more degrees below normal a match to this year. It doesn't happen very often, and most years that it does are good ones!
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Tue May 03, 2005 12:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
I think our fate next winter lies in the El Nino / La Nina debate.
I am not sure which side is right. It could go either way and it will be interesting to watch.
I will say... a La Nina could prove to be very interesting.
I have not researched the details of a warm March and then a cool period in April. It did not feel very unusual though. After a warm March... I would expect a cool period in April.
It seems almost inevitable.
Can you give me an example of year with a March like this one followed by an April with above normal temperatures and no cool period. We had two weeks of highs mostly in the 50's. That is nothing extreme at all. I cannot imagine just rolling right through April with 60's and 70's after a warm March.
I think "atypical" referred to being different than our normal strong westerly flow. The flow has been wishy-washy lately. Not that unusual in late April and May. But atypical compared to the normal jet stream pushing systems through here.
One final note... 1.27 vs 1.0 is splitting hairs. We are still above normal. I think after July this year will be running below normal.
I am not sure which side is right. It could go either way and it will be interesting to watch.
I will say... a La Nina could prove to be very interesting.
I have not researched the details of a warm March and then a cool period in April. It did not feel very unusual though. After a warm March... I would expect a cool period in April.
It seems almost inevitable.
Can you give me an example of year with a March like this one followed by an April with above normal temperatures and no cool period. We had two weeks of highs mostly in the 50's. That is nothing extreme at all. I cannot imagine just rolling right through April with 60's and 70's after a warm March.
I think "atypical" referred to being different than our normal strong westerly flow. The flow has been wishy-washy lately. Not that unusual in late April and May. But atypical compared to the normal jet stream pushing systems through here.
One final note... 1.27 vs 1.0 is splitting hairs. We are still above normal. I think after July this year will be running below normal.
0 likes
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Snow_wizzard,
I do not believe a La Niña is likely through at least the next winter. In February, I discussed the idea that both models and analogs were against the return of La Niña. With later data, the picture remains unchanged on that.
That earlier discussion follows:
Winter 2005-06: The Return of La Niña?
Recently, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi raised the possibility of a La Niña winter. However, he did not forecast such a winter for next season. He only mentioned the possibility. Over the past four weeks, all of the ENSO regions have seen cooling. The cool anomaly in Region 1+2 has become quite pronounced:
Region 1+2:
Week of January 5, 2005: -0.2°C
Week of February 2, 2005: -0.8°C
Region 3.4:
Week of January 5, 2005: +0.6°C
Week of February 2, 2005: +0.2°C
As a result, a look ahead is in order. One should bear in mind that the Winter ENSO state is far from certain. The major question to be addressed is specifically whether Winter 2005-06 is likely to see a La Niña.
• ENSO Models:
The ENSO models extend out to the September-November period. By that time, 3 (25%) are cool and 9 (75%) are warm. Just 1 of the cool models meets the La Niña threshold. In contrast, 7 of the warm models meet El Niño criteria. The lone model showing La Niña is the Australian POAMA Model. The CFS Model is cool but does not reach La Niña criteria. However, the cooling that now appears to be getting underway and is picked up by the models is forecast by an overwhelming number of the models to peak in the June-August period with slow warming afterward.
• CFS Ensembles:
The CFS ensemble mean reaches a cool anomaly and maintains that anomaly to the September-November period. 9 (45%) of its members are warm and 11 (55%) are cool. Of the warm members, 4 meet El Niño criteria. Of the cool members, 7 meet La Niña criteria. Although the CFS offers one of the colder solutions, it too picks up a gradual warming toward the end of its range.
• ENSO Analogs:
Using the 6-month Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) as a starting point, there were 8 seasons that were quite similar to the current one (came within 0.500 of the 2004-05 values all 6 months). For the winter, 7 of the 8 (88%) analogs wound up with neutral or El Niño conditions; 1 of 8 (13%) saw a La Niña. Extrapolating the numbers using the January 2005 Region 3.4 anomaly as a starting point, 4 (50%) had cool anomalies during the December-February period and 4 (50%) had warm anomalies. However, just 1 met La Niña criteria. In contrast, 2 met El Niño criteria.
• Historic Experience:
The last winter La Niña occurred during Winter 2000-01. Winter 2000-01 was the last of three consecutive winters with La Niña conditions. Such a situation occurred on three prior occasions going back to 1868: 1871-72 through 1875-76, 1954-55 through 1956-57, and 1973-74 through 1975-76. The interval of time before the next La Niña winter came to 11 years, 8 years, and 5 years respectively. Thus, the average wait was 8 years and under just one of the three past occurrences was the timing consistent with 2005-06 seeing a La Niña winter.
• CPC Diagnostic Discussion:
The February 10, 2005 CPC Diagnostic Discussion stated: Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that weak warm episode (El Niño) conditions will gradually weaken during the next three months and that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the last half of 2005. CPC has enormous expertise when it comes to large-scale patterns, so CPC’s opinion is given significant weight.
In my view, when all the evidence is weighed, it is unlikely that Winter 2005-06 will be a La Niña winter. Whether or not it is ENSO-neutral or sees another El Niño is less certain. With the possible transition to a generally negative PDO phase possibly continuing to evolve, odds might lean toward an ENSO-neutral winter.
I do not believe a La Niña is likely through at least the next winter. In February, I discussed the idea that both models and analogs were against the return of La Niña. With later data, the picture remains unchanged on that.
That earlier discussion follows:
Winter 2005-06: The Return of La Niña?
Recently, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi raised the possibility of a La Niña winter. However, he did not forecast such a winter for next season. He only mentioned the possibility. Over the past four weeks, all of the ENSO regions have seen cooling. The cool anomaly in Region 1+2 has become quite pronounced:
Region 1+2:
Week of January 5, 2005: -0.2°C
Week of February 2, 2005: -0.8°C
Region 3.4:
Week of January 5, 2005: +0.6°C
Week of February 2, 2005: +0.2°C
As a result, a look ahead is in order. One should bear in mind that the Winter ENSO state is far from certain. The major question to be addressed is specifically whether Winter 2005-06 is likely to see a La Niña.
• ENSO Models:
The ENSO models extend out to the September-November period. By that time, 3 (25%) are cool and 9 (75%) are warm. Just 1 of the cool models meets the La Niña threshold. In contrast, 7 of the warm models meet El Niño criteria. The lone model showing La Niña is the Australian POAMA Model. The CFS Model is cool but does not reach La Niña criteria. However, the cooling that now appears to be getting underway and is picked up by the models is forecast by an overwhelming number of the models to peak in the June-August period with slow warming afterward.
• CFS Ensembles:
The CFS ensemble mean reaches a cool anomaly and maintains that anomaly to the September-November period. 9 (45%) of its members are warm and 11 (55%) are cool. Of the warm members, 4 meet El Niño criteria. Of the cool members, 7 meet La Niña criteria. Although the CFS offers one of the colder solutions, it too picks up a gradual warming toward the end of its range.
• ENSO Analogs:
Using the 6-month Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) as a starting point, there were 8 seasons that were quite similar to the current one (came within 0.500 of the 2004-05 values all 6 months). For the winter, 7 of the 8 (88%) analogs wound up with neutral or El Niño conditions; 1 of 8 (13%) saw a La Niña. Extrapolating the numbers using the January 2005 Region 3.4 anomaly as a starting point, 4 (50%) had cool anomalies during the December-February period and 4 (50%) had warm anomalies. However, just 1 met La Niña criteria. In contrast, 2 met El Niño criteria.
• Historic Experience:
The last winter La Niña occurred during Winter 2000-01. Winter 2000-01 was the last of three consecutive winters with La Niña conditions. Such a situation occurred on three prior occasions going back to 1868: 1871-72 through 1875-76, 1954-55 through 1956-57, and 1973-74 through 1975-76. The interval of time before the next La Niña winter came to 11 years, 8 years, and 5 years respectively. Thus, the average wait was 8 years and under just one of the three past occurrences was the timing consistent with 2005-06 seeing a La Niña winter.
• CPC Diagnostic Discussion:
The February 10, 2005 CPC Diagnostic Discussion stated: Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that weak warm episode (El Niño) conditions will gradually weaken during the next three months and that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the last half of 2005. CPC has enormous expertise when it comes to large-scale patterns, so CPC’s opinion is given significant weight.
In my view, when all the evidence is weighed, it is unlikely that Winter 2005-06 will be a La Niña winter. Whether or not it is ENSO-neutral or sees another El Niño is less certain. With the possible transition to a generally negative PDO phase possibly continuing to evolve, odds might lean toward an ENSO-neutral winter.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Well....if we have an El~Nino, then our winter could be mild and really wet with possible flooding rains. That could also mean that storm tracks could be headed more in the way of our direction and better organized systems. Maybe even some nice wind storms. Of course this may also be bad news as the cascades and olympics will have a not so good snow pack.
Now if we have a La~Nina, we`ll have a cooler winter with lots of heavy snows in the mountains and possible snowy periods down here in the lowlands. In general though, I know that El~Nino tipically brings mild winters while La~Ninas bring cooler/colder winters.
-- Andy
Now if we have a La~Nina, we`ll have a cooler winter with lots of heavy snows in the mountains and possible snowy periods down here in the lowlands. In general though, I know that El~Nino tipically brings mild winters while La~Ninas bring cooler/colder winters.
-- Andy
0 likes
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Andy,
If one has a strongly negative PDO (-1.00 or below for the winter), that can more than overcome the warming of an El Niño. There were three El Niño seasons that saw the PDO average -1.00 or below (December-March):
1951-52: Weak El Niño: Cooler than normal
1968-69: Moderate El Niño: Generally cooler than normal
1990-91: Weak El Niño: Cooler than normal to near normal
A weakly negative PDO (above -1.00) won't be sufficiently strong to overcome a moderate El Niño's warming impact.
If one has a strongly negative PDO (-1.00 or below for the winter), that can more than overcome the warming of an El Niño. There were three El Niño seasons that saw the PDO average -1.00 or below (December-March):
1951-52: Weak El Niño: Cooler than normal
1968-69: Moderate El Niño: Generally cooler than normal
1990-91: Weak El Niño: Cooler than normal to near normal
A weakly negative PDO (above -1.00) won't be sufficiently strong to overcome a moderate El Niño's warming impact.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
That is fascinating! That might the answer I have been looking for, as to why some El Nino winters are cold.
TT...A few examples of years that had a very March with no notable cold weather in April were 1987, 1992, and 1994. I have only really looked carefully at 1968 to the present. Years that had significant cool periods in April after a warm March were 1968, 1969, 1972, 1981, 1984, and 1986. Of those 6 years, 4 had significant Arctic outbreaks the following winter. 1990, 1995, and 1996 had lesser cold snaps in April...all good winters! I think you are correct that this year will be far colder, overall, than last year.
TT...A few examples of years that had a very March with no notable cold weather in April were 1987, 1992, and 1994. I have only really looked carefully at 1968 to the present. Years that had significant cool periods in April after a warm March were 1968, 1969, 1972, 1981, 1984, and 1986. Of those 6 years, 4 had significant Arctic outbreaks the following winter. 1990, 1995, and 1996 had lesser cold snaps in April...all good winters! I think you are correct that this year will be far colder, overall, than last year.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
It would seem that Covington has a bullseye painted on it for the rain clouds lately! About an hour ago we had a shower that dropped .20 in just a short time. On the radar it was just a tiny shower that did not move. It literally sat motionless over us. It is things like that, which are just so strange this year...
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hey Don...I was just giving thoughts of what maybe could happen. I`m not very climate savy.. . Meaning that Tim and Snow wizzard have FAR more knowledge of the recent climate than what I have....which is nil.
Hey Tim, snow wizzard.....what site(s) are you looking at when your including dates of when it was cold/warm/wet/snowy..? Just curious.
-- Andy
. Meaning that Tim and Snow wizzard have FAR more knowledge of the recent climate than what I have....which is nil.
Hey Tim, snow wizzard.....what site(s) are you looking at when your including dates of when it was cold/warm/wet/snowy..? Just curious.
-- Andy
0 likes
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Andy...This site is excellent for weather data for all of Washington State. It is all in graph form, but it gives you a good picture!
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onl ... /main.html
It works best if you click on "display two parameters for one station" then you choose Washington State and pick the parameters you want to look at.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onl ... /main.html
It works best if you click on "display two parameters for one station" then you choose Washington State and pick the parameters you want to look at.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
I did a little bit of research for the spring and summer of 68. TT is, of course, correct. The records show that the winter of 68-69 was one of the snowiest winters around. For temperatures that year, we had an above average March, below average April, average May and June, above average July, BUT! a much below average August. (Based on Oregon records.) I was a little surprised to see that. It must have been a rainy month. I wonder what happened to tip it to such a snowy winter. Will see what I can find out tomorrow.
The Austrailian El Nino forecast comes out tomorrow. I can hardly wait. Goo' Day.
The Austrailian El Nino forecast comes out tomorrow. I can hardly wait. Goo' Day.
0 likes
La nina occur 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, 1999.
We were in a warm phase since 1975. The years after this year had less La nina. It looks like we are in right corner of a cold phase.
I believe that we will have a La nina winter this year. I just saw a picture of the coast of South America. The Surface ocean temperature have been turning cooler since Feburary.
We were in a warm phase since 1975. The years after this year had less La nina. It looks like we are in right corner of a cold phase.
I believe that we will have a La nina winter this year. I just saw a picture of the coast of South America. The Surface ocean temperature have been turning cooler since Feburary.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests