Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

The updated 8-14 day temperature outlook from NOAA shows another significantly below average temperatures for much of the Eastern CONUS, especially the Lower MS Valley region into the Deep South. As mentioned last night model runs are hinting at another cold spell possibly at Thanksgiving time next week.

[northjaxpro]

21Z WPC surface analysis tells the story, with the 1031 mb Arctic High centered over Northern Texas and moving due east and the arctic cold front extending from just east of the Florida Big Bend region northeastward to approaching the coastal regions of SC and NC . The front should clear the Jacksonville metro area between 03Z-06Z early tomorrow morning.

[TheStormExpert]

The updated 8-14 day temperature outlook from NOAA shows another significantly below average temperatures for much of the Eastern CONUS, especially the Lower MS Valley region into the Deep South. As mentioned last night model runs are hinting at another cold spell possibly at Thanksgiving time next week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

I noticed that, though the GFS has been somewhat inconsistent on the duration and how far south that cold airmass might get.

[bella_may]

Too bad we don't have some precip to go with this

[MGC]

Birdbath was frozen this morning along with plenty of frost on the ground this morning. Looks to be a couple of degrees colder tomorrow morning. Sure do wish it was July......MGC

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z GFS, 216 hr leading into Thanksgiving Day. It shows a deepening upper trough across the Eastern U.S., extending down into the GOM, with both the 534 and 540 thickness line extending well down into the NE GOM and up across Northern FL, and a potential nor'easter system moving up the Eastern seaboard, with snow on the backside from NC up to New England

[SeGaBob]

My thermometer showed 25 degrees about a hour ago and the low is supposed to be 22 here. I'm thinking it might go lower than that the way it's shaping up so far. (We dropped below 32 right at dark.)

[northjaxpro]

Peeking ahead towards the end of November, the 234 hr EURO shows a very impressive deep upper level trough down across the Eastern CONUS, bringing another arctic airmass into the region should it verify.

[MGC]

KGPT recorded 5 days with a low temp at or below freezing in November. Low for the month was 25. My birdbath was frozen 4 mornings and I live near the beach. Lets hope December comes in as a lamb and out as a lamb with plenty of lamb inbetween......MGC

[MGC]

Mid 70s today...Mother Nature, keep up the good work....MGC

[asd123]

ECMWF forecasting cooler weather next week for Florida, low 40s for cfla lows. GFS however is much warmer, not forecasting any lower than mid 50s lows for cfla. GFS and ECMWF and the JMA continue to torch much of the Central and Eastern U.S. for the foreseeable future after early next week. Florida though seems to be a little cool for a little while next week, and then even Florida succumbs to the warmth.

It's December; when is the Arctic weather coming for Florida? It is so frustrating to see much of the U.S. see this warmth for the foreseeable future (2 weeks at least) with Florida seeing no Arctic air intrusions.

[gatorcane]

I am looking at the ECMWF and GFS and don't see any arctic air for Texas, the Deep South, or Florida anytime soon...may have to wait longer until sometime in the second half of December or January. Had Typhoon Hagupit recurved and ended up in Alaska, that could have been the catalyst for another big Arctic outbreak for the lower 48 but looks like that is not going to happen.

[asd123]

I am looking at the ECMWF and GFS and don't see any arctic air for Texas, the Deep South, or Florida anytime soon...may have to wait longer until end of December or January. Had Typhoon Hagupit recurved and ended up in Alaska, that could have been the catalyst for another big Arctic outbreak for the lower 48 but looks like that is not going to happen.

ECMWF forecasting cooler weather next week for Florida, low 40s for cfla lows. GFS however is much warmer, not forecasting any lower than mid 50s lows for cfla. GFS and ECMWF and the JMA continue to torch much of the Central and Eastern U.S. for the foreseeable future after early next week. Florida though seems to be a little cool for a little while next week, and then even Florida succumbs to the warmth.

It's December; when is the Arctic weather coming for Florida? It is so frustrating to see much of the U.S. see this warmth for the foreseeable future (2 weeks at least) with Florida seeing no Arctic air intrusions.

It's just ridiculous seeing that ridging persist for all that time (shown by all models). However, next week, according to the models (except the GFS) Florida should see a decent cooldown. After that, the country will be begin to ridge and torch, and for a short while, the models show Florida protected from the warm anomlies. But eventually, Florida too will succumb. Florida will be protected the whole time as it seems from the ridging, but the temperatures by no means will be cold. No end in sight

[asd123]

Disturbing news from Accuweather's Henry Margusity. He basically says that we will be warm until the first week of January for the East. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... h/38439269

It pretty much makes sense what he says, as all the models show above to near average temps with ridging, with only slight dips for much of the east.

It seems like not too long ago, Larry Cosgrove was talking about an end to the warmth come mid December, but it looks like it won't be happening.

[NDG]

Yes, Larry Cosgrove jumped the gun about calling for Typhoon Hagupit to recurve towards the Aleutian Islands and buckle the Jetstream in the NE Pacific.
Meanwhile with the NAO really going positive over the next couple of weeks a positive PNA is not going to do much in bringing much colder air down to the Deep South.
If the NAO does not turn negative soon I am inclined to say that there will not be much of a winter for Central and South FL just like last year unless the subtropical jet stream becomes very active during the next couple of months and sends cooler rainy weather our way from time to time.

[asd123]

The models are trending toward a chilly next 10 days: ECMWF has upper 30s for several nights for cfla. and upper 50s low 60s highs. The GEM and its ensembles have also lined up with the Euro on a chilly 10 days for cfla. The GFS too is starting to line up. Beyond the 10 days, it warms up a little bit according to the models, but after that, there might be an overall trend towards colder weather! This is all strange, as the teleconnections seem to be very unfavorable for this prolonged chilliness.

I will highlight the ECMWF which seems colder than all the models, can't really post every single image or loop. I shall invite you to see the loops on Tropical Tidbits of the GFS, GEM, GEM ENS, and ECMWF

All images below courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

ECMWF 850 mb temp maps:



OOH a little pocket of -850 mb temps in the entire southeast!!!:

[Ntxw]

For asd123 who mentioned something over in the Texas thread I decided to take a look at some significant 20th century freezes for Florida. It seems cold signal and loading for the southeast as well had a lot in common. The strongest signal I saw that was persistent is the PNA. It was mostly positive for all of these events. -NAO when present seemed to magnify the effects. It also seems the negative anomalies were centered over the Eastern seaboard. PNA this season has been very positive so far, I would put a Florida "impactful" freeze risk above average this season.

http://i57.tinypic.com/inda55.gif

http://i58.tinypic.com/1zfkbp3.gif

http://i57.tinypic.com/2hpjgxe.gif

http://i59.tinypic.com/34yclf9.gif

http://i62.tinypic.com/34rsuhg.gif

http://i62.tinypic.com/2cpvorb.gif


Dr. Ventrice tweeted this so credit to him.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The MJO's progression from octant 6 to octants 8 and 1 after mid-month should mark an end to the blowtorch pattern across the USA currently. Extended range model guidance is beginning to hint at our first true sudden stratospheric warming event of the season as we enter January. It shouldn't be too long until we start seeing the effects of the 2nd highest Siberia snow extent on record (in October) either. Those who enjoy warm weather should enjoy it while it lasts, because at this point January and February are looking very cold for much of the East. As far as the Deep South is concerned, I think the best combination of cold and wintry precipitation will be February, especially if El Nino conditions continue to strengthen.

[SeGaBob]

It's nice to see this thread picking up in activity.

[northjaxpro]

This is a bit Fantasy Land here, but just wanted to post the 284 hr GFS run, going into the weekend before Christmas. It's La La land, but the run shows a storm system developing near the SC coast with snow on the back side across the Tennessee Valley region.