Texas Winter 2014-2015

[opticsguy]

thunder in Addison just now. well over an inch of rain.

[Tammie]

Can someone look at the radar and interpret? My eyes tell me the moisture continues to come in from the west and is training over Denton, currently falling as sleet. Yet our mets say it's ending soon? Exactly where is the "end"? I let 2 of my teens go to work because the frozen precip wasn't supposed to start until after midnight.

[dhweather]

37.5 in the Heath Metropolitan Area. 0.47" of rain, which we will gladly take.

45 minutes later ..........



34.7 degrees 0.53" of rain


We dropped almost 3 degrees in 45 minutes.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It appears everything is going south of The central part of the red River.

[CaptinCrunch]

32 on weather station here at the house. Looking forward to a Monday off. Arlington Airport reporting 37 and light snow.

[TrekkerCC]

Can someone look at the radar and interpret? My eyes tell me the moisture continues to come in from the west and is training over Denton, currently falling as sleet. Yet our mets say it's ending soon? Exactly where is the "end"? I let 2 of my teens go to work because the frozen precip wasn't supposed to start until after midnight.

Tammie, you eyes are not deceiving you. From my eyes - it appears that the precipitation is back-building. You see current end towards near Abilene. Given this is the case, i wouldn't surprised if some of this fell as sleet before it ended. The main event should still be in the morning time with the second round of precipitation, but the rain (and possibly sleet) from the first round might hang on with us until 8pm or 9pm (maybe a little later).

[aggiecutter]

Winter Storm Warning for the Texarkana area(NE Texas-SW Arkansas) for tonight and tomorrow. Low tonight of 27 and a high tomorrow of only 28. 80% chance of sleet and freezing rain tonight(mostly sleet),with ice and sleet accumulations up to a .50" inch. Sleet and snow mixture in the morning changing to all snow by afternoon(80%)chance. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches. Tomorrow night, a 50% chance of snow, with an additional .50" of accumulation.

[Tammie]

Can someone look at the radar and interpret? My eyes tell me the moisture continues to come in from the west and is training over Denton, currently falling as sleet. Yet our mets say it's ending soon? Exactly where is the "end"? I let 2 of my teens go to work because the frozen precip wasn't supposed to start until after midnight.

Tammie, you eyes are not deceiving you. From my eyes - it appears that the precipitation is back-building. You see current end towards near Abilene. Given this is the case, i wouldn't surprised if some of this fell as sleet before it ended. The main event should still be in the morning time with the second round of precipitation, but the rain (and possibly sleet) from the first round might hang on with us until 8pm or 9pm (maybe a little later).

Thanks TrekkerCC. I'm not a happy mom right now, especially when our local mets are looking at the same radar I am!

[Ralph's Weather]

39 and my station shows 2"/hr rain. Temps will start dropping faster before too long.

[Brent]

Arlington is reporting snow at 37 degrees I'm skeptical but can anyone confirm?

This whole thing seems to be coming in early and I notice the backbuilding near I-20

[aggiecutter]

From the Shreveport AFD:

RAINFALL TONIGHT TO TRANSITION INTO SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS. AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS SOUTHWARD...RAIN TO TRANSITION INTO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

[texas1836]

32 at the DWC in McKinney with 1.57 inches of rain.

[TheProfessor]

heavy sleet falling now

[iorange55]

Weatherbug in my area (Cedar Hill) now reporting 32. Not sure how accurate it is, but it has been dropping rapidly now. The freezing temps definitely arrived early.

[gboudx]

37.5 in the Heath Metropolitan Area. 0.47" of rain, which we will gladly take.

45 minutes later ..........



34.7 degrees 0.53" of rain


We dropped almost 3 degrees in 45 minutes.

My weather station shows 34 but no decimals so may be rounding up. Weatherbug at school 1 mile away says 32.

[TheProfessor]

sleet is accumulating fast here.

[Brent]

Weatherbug is down to 30 here

Roads are gonna be bad well before midnight at this pace

[gboudx]

Update from jeff. Note he mentions temps here running about 3 degrees colder than expected with sleet being reported hours earlier as well.

Winter Storm heading for much of TX

NWS has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for ice accumulations of .03-.07 of an inch from 600pm Monday until 900am Tuesday for the following counties: Burleson, Madison, Houston, Brazos, Washington, Grimes, Walker, Montgomery, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, and Liberty.

Arctic cold front plowing southward across TX this afternoon with 78 at BUSH IAH and 19 in Amarillo to 21 in Lubbock. Temperature in Lubbock is running about 3-4 degrees colder than what model guidance suggested and temperatures over N TX including DFW are running about 3 degrees colder at this time than expected. In fact numerous reports of light to moderate sleet is already being reported across N TX about 3-5 hours earlier than expected. General model consensus continues to indicate surface freezing line making good progress into the area late Monday afternoon and evening off the sleet and ice covered land of N TX. Forecast soundings show strong warm air advection above the surface cold dome with temperatures nearing 50 degrees a couple thousand feet above the surface. This will limit P-type to rain or freezing rain across the region and make the most critical forecast element the surface air temperature.

Current indications is that the freezing line will extend southward along and north of a line from Columbus to Waller to Conroe to Cleveland overnight Monday into early Tuesday with light freezing rain and freezing drizzle along and north of this line. Elevated objects such as trees, power lines, and bridges/overpasses will likely accumulate a thin glaze of ice potentially resulting in hazardous travel in the advisory counties.

Freezing line could move a little bit more southward than currently expected and impact Austin, Waller, and north/west Harris (Katy to Jersey Village to Kingwood). Current thinking is that these areas may just touch 32 for a few hours with some patchy ice possible. Only 1-2 degrees of additional cooling will make a big difference in this area between ice and no ice…so temperature trends will need very close monitoring on Monday, but this could also be offset by the current warm ground temperatures and warm bridge/overpass temperatures. Not very confident at exactly what temperature ice may form on bridges and overpasses given the recent warmth…experience last year suggested temperatures needed to fall into the 29-30 degree range…but that was also with pre-treatment solution applied.

Freezing Rain/ice accumulation (>.01 of an inch) threat probabilities:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

Decision Support Matrix:

Burleson, Houston, Madison, Walker, Trinity, San Jacinto, Polk:
Ice Accumulation: .03-.07 of an inch
Timing: 600pm Monday-1000am Tuesday
Temperatures: 28-30 degrees
Winds: NNE 10-15mph
Confidence: high

Transportation: anti-ice operations likely
Education: delays and cancellations possible
Aviation: anti-ice operations likely
Power: isolated outages possible

Brazos, Grimes, Washington, Montgomery, Waller, northern Liberty:
Ice Accumulation: .03-.05 of an inch
Timing: 1000pm Monday-1000am Tuesday
Temperatures: 30-32 degrees
Winds: NNE 10-15mph
Confidence: moderate

Transportation: prepare for anti-ice operations
Education: delays and cancellations possible
Aviation: anti-ice operations likely
Power: isolated outages possible

Austin, Colorado, north Harris (Katy-Jersey Village-Kingwood), central Liberty:
Ice Accumulation: patchy ice accumulation possible
Timing: 1100pm Monday-900am Tuesday
Temperatures: 31-33 degrees
Winds: NNE 10-15mph
Confidence: moderate

Transportation: monitor trends/standby equipment and personnel
Education: delays possible
Aviation: anti-ice operations possible at Hooks and IAH
Power: None

Fort Bend, southern Harris, Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers:
Ice Accumulation: None expected at this time
Timing: N/A
Temperatures: 33-35 degrees
Winds: NNE 14-18mph
Confidence: moderate

Transportation: None
Education: None
Aviation: None
Power: None

[aggiecutter]

The 15z SREF progs a major sleet storm for NE Texas and SW Arkansas.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Any Austin updates to speak of? I admittedly haven't been paying attention to how we're doing vis-a-vis what the models have forecast. I would assume if it's colder to our north than forecast, we could expect similar things here, but there's plenty of distance between the two.