Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

Euro may win the war in terms of snow/accumulations if this trend continues. Definitely has lost some battles along the way. Still a few runs to go though. Trend has definitely been south last few runs with GFS

Like the whole thing moves south or just an expansion south?

Is DFW getting the once over again?

No...Dallas still looks good to get snow. What I'm saying is the trend overall by the GFS has been adjusting the accumulations toward the Euro in terms of snow. Still some runs to go before we begin to lock in anything. These disturbances have really been digging to the south into Mexico before ejecting into TX. Saw that yesterday. Saturday looks to be similar. Just something to watch as we move forward.

It’s the QPF amounts that the Euro seems underestimating across most of the region....the trend south seemed to be a given looking at Temps upstream

[JDawg512]

Thanks for the input. We've decided not to get the generator. My biggest worry is I keep aquariums, I need to make sure my aquariums stay warm as I keep warm freshwater fish including Discus. I really don't care about other household appliances and we have a fireplace, my challenge will be to keeping temps from drastically changing for my aquarium water if things take a turn for the worst around here.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is still showing a LOT of snow . . .



(24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall)



Grand Total


. . . But nothing compared to the "Storm of the Century" run 24 hours before (GFS-Para 18z on 2.11.2021)

[rwfromkansas]

I’m a little worried the GFS will keep trending south and DFW will be on the northern fringe. But, will see. Don’t see that this time. Think it’s happening.

Also, it’s impossible to get ice melt. Calling stories and hitting up places. Nobody has it.

[Brent]

Guys I don't even know what to say today lol I'm just in awe not even so much about the snow potential although that may get there too but the temperatures coming

[Brandon8181]

Thanks for the input. We've decided not to get the generator. My biggest worry is I keep aquariums, I need to make sure my aquariums stay warm as I keep warm freshwater fish including Discus. I really don't care about other household appliances and we have a fireplace, my challenge will be to keeping temps from drastically changing for my aquarium water if things take a turn for the worst around here.

I also keep aquariums. I kept Discus for many years. I have a feeling you are going to be in a difficult position. I currently have a 230 gallon and a 65 gallon aquarium, but keep less expensive fish now. Hopefully, for all of us it will work out.

[orangeblood]

A beautiful sequence up coming. The past several winters we had the TPV hung up around the GL anytime we had cold and a decent looking setup. This resulted in an Eastern trough with confluence off the SE and our incoming system would get sheared out. The TPV has dumped cold down the Rockies into Texas, even though we didn't see a big -EP0 (which is good since it is harder to get systems to amplify out across the Southern Plains with a big -EPO). However, we did get a -WPO and -PNA which helped keep the cold from bleeding off east. Now with active flow off the Pacific the TPV lifts out as our 1st system comes in and the SE ridge helps the system cut somewhat, which prevents it from pushing the cold front through the Gulf. That leaves moisture in place for a second system. It really is an amazing setup.

https://i.ibb.co/61xGVfh/gfs-DTpres-namer-fh0-180.gif

It really is, neutral to even slightly negative PNA is key for precip...positive PNA is death for moisture

[AubreyStorm]

Gov. Greg Abbott Issues Disaster Declaration Ahead of Inbound Severe Winter Weather.
#WinterWeather

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 at 4:50 PM

Storm #1: 8-10 inches

Storm #2: 3-6 inches

[SnowintheFalls]

18z GFS is still showing a LOT of snow . . .

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021021218.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

(24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021021218.snku_024h.us_sc.gif

Grand Total
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_scc62b74230526a46c.png

. . . But nothing compared to the "Storm of the Century" run 24 hours before (GFS-Para 18z on 2.11.2021)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc6398f6a476811935.png

That 31 inches of snow this week would be crippling! These models seem to be pretty wonky right now. I feel like we have prepared as much as possible for worst case so it is just wait and see now.

[ElectricStorm]

The forecasted low for Tuesday morning in my area in NE OK is -11. At this time yesterday it was -2... If this trend for Tuesday morning continues, 2-10-2011 may have a challenger for the coldest air I've ever experienced. I don't think there's any chance the state record gets broken but I think some areas could see some local records fall...

[EnnisTx]

I’m a little worried the GFS will keep trending south and DFW will be on the northern fringe. But, will see. Don’t see that this time. Think it’s happening.

Also, it’s impossible to get ice melt. Calling stories and hitting up places. Nobody has it.

If you look at the chance of high snow totals it runs all the way up into Kansas as of now. I don't believe it could move far enough South to do that.

[Iceresistance]

The forecasted low for Tuesday morning in my area in NE OK is -11. At this time yesterday it was -2... If this trend for Tuesday morning continues, 2-10-2011 may have a challenger for the coldest air I've ever experienced. I don't think there's any chance the state record gets broken but I think some areas could see some local records fall...

I'm now expected to fall to -15°F

[Haris]

HUGE bump on 18z RGEM on snow and precip. Everywhere. Means tonight 0z CMC gonna he bomb

[rwfromkansas]

I’m a little worried the GFS will keep trending south and DFW will be on the northern fringe. But, will see. Don’t see that this time. Think it’s happening.

Also, it’s impossible to get ice melt. Calling stories and hitting up places. Nobody has it.

If you look at the chance of high snow totals it runs all the way up into Kansas as of now. I don't believe it could move far enough South to do that.

Good point. Yeah I looked at the other animations and it was more an area of addition than real shift. We may be stuck at home for days.

[EnnisTx]

I’m a little worried the GFS will keep trending south and DFW will be on the northern fringe. But, will see. Don’t see that this time. Think it’s happening.

Also, it’s impossible to get ice melt. Calling stories and hitting up places. Nobody has it.

If you look at the chance of high snow totals it runs all the way up into Kansas as of now. I don't believe it could move far enough South to do that.

Good point. Yeah I looked at the other animations and it was more an area of addition than real shift. We may be stuck at home for days.

I'm betting it will be the end of next week if this all verifies. I hope everyone got their grocery shopping done!

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Mean snowfall is CRAZY!

10-12 inches in Central Oklahoma
12-15 inches in DFW
(up to 16-17 inches near Texarkana)


NOTE: All totals are 10:1 Ratio snowfall, 15:1 to 25:1 ratios are in Oklahoma

Ensemble Members (LOOK AT MEMBERS #4, #6, & #13 )

[orangeblood]

The lift and upper level divergence with these two systems over the top of this type of Arctic HP is jaw dropping! You see this in the Northeast US occasionally but down here is a deviation from normal that is off the charts

[txtwister78]

RGEM with a big shift south and an increase in snowfall totals from the 12z run.

18z run



12z run

[ColdFusion]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?